Bengie Molina walks less than Steven Hawkings. And he might be their second best hitter.

When Bengie Molina is your clean-up hitter, things have gone horribly, horribly wrong. Well, that’s the problem the Giants faced last year, though there’s optimism that they’ll field a much stronger collection of hitters in 2010. For what it’s worth, they also had a lot of career-low years from guys they needed to at least be average hitters. Randy Winn forgot how to play baseball, Edgar Renteria shit the bed, Aaron Rowand realized that he’d signed a big legally-binding contract and he didn’t actually have to play very well, and Nate Schierholtz, Bengie Molina and Juan Uribe walked less than Steven Hawking. The result? Pablo Sandoval and the lovable group of misfits masquerading as big league starters.

Outfield: Rowand remains planted in center field, though I’m sure Brian Sabean regrets inking him to a monstrous deal that makes him virtually untradeable. Actually, scratch that. Sabean probably thinks it was a shrewd deal that works in the team’s favor. He can still play the field as evidenced by his positive UZR (1.3), though there are questions there, too. After having rated among the best in baseball for years, posting double-digit UZR numbers, he was a negative in 2008 (-6.5) and slightly-above average in 2009. With his increase in strikeouts and decrease in walks, Rowand, never a guy with great contact skills or power outside of his superb 2007 season, wasn’t much help to the Giants in 2009. If he can reverse those bad habits he seemed to have picked up in 2008 and 2009, and take some pitches, it’s possible we could see a .275/.350/.450 guy. I wouldn’t bet on the power coming back, though. His ISO numbers in ’08 and ’09 are (.138 and .158, respectively), after about 300 games, likely a trend that will continue. I’d be more comfortable saying his slugging numbers are probably going to be closer to .420, which would still give him about 15 home runs.

Flanking Rowand in right field is John Bowker. It’s almost certain that he’ll represent an offensive upgrade over Schierholtz, though his glove isn’t all that hot. The Giants need guys that can either produce some power numbers or at the very least, get on base. Bowker, 26, played in 31 games with the big club last year. He really struggled, putting up a line of .194/.297/.373. But there’s room for some hope. He mashed at AAA that year, though he was 25. His power isn’t bad, but it also isn’t enough for a traditional corner outfielder. He doesn’t walk much (aside from his AAA in 2009) and his strikeout totals are a bit high for a guy that isn’t exactly a slugger. For the Giants, it should be enough to represent an improvement. Their pitchers are going to keep them in games, but they absolutely need to hit better than they did last year. He’s not overwhelming, but there’s a decent chance you could see .275/.340/.430 and slightly-below average defense.

Finally, Mark DeRosa will man left field for the Giants in 2010. Versatile enough to play everything from SS to groundskeeper, DeRosa  power-wise, saw his two best offensive seasons in 2008 and 2009. The problem? He just had wrist surgery late in the 2009 season. Wrist surgery generally saps power and takes about a year to fully recover strength. That’s not good for the Giants, as they’ll probably get about 10 home runs out of DeRosa, maybe less depending on how he adjusts. His career OBP is all over the place, and it took a nosedive from .376 in ’08 to .319 in ’09. His walk rate early in his career was terrible — about 5-6% — but it’s been consistently around league average since 2006, though his K-rate is rising (23% last year). It’s hard to say what you’re going to get with DeRosa.

The dude is quite literally all over the place. If you’re an optimist, you say he’ll give you very strong defense in left field and a line of .285/.370/.480. That’s really good. If you’re a pessimist and think his peripherals and injury won’t hold up, you’re looking at .250/.310/.410 with good defense. Personally, i think the power won’t be there much but his BABip will return from .280 to around his career levels, which should give him an average of .270 or better. I worry about the OBP and slugging, particularly with the injury. I’m going to go with .340/.410. It’s going to be hard for DeRosa to really hit in some of those spacious parks and that will have an impact on how pitchers throw to him. He also struggles against right-handers, which is certainly something to watch for.

In the fourth and fifth outfield roles are Nate Schierholtz, he of the no-walk, no-power, average-contact school of hitting; and speedy Eugenio Velez. Schierholtz is a fairly good fourth outfielder, largely because of his defense at the corners and his average contact skills. You could do worse. He even had some promising minor league seasons in terms of power. I don’t think they’ll transition, though. He is what he is. Velez is simply a speedy outfielder without much in the way of hitting skills. He can also play 2B. All-around utility guy. Some bum named “Andres Torres” is also on the depth chart. Not sure who he is, but it doesn’t look like he’ll make much impact. Keep that guy away from your fantasy team.

If Sandoval goes down with injury, the Giants may need to trade for a serious slugger. Maybe Jon Dowd is available?

Infield: As I mentioned earlier, Edgar Renteria looked lost in 2009. Since his awesome 2007 season with Atlanta, Renteria has really fallen off the cliff. Last year, he put up a line of .250/.307/.328. The power is the most alarming thing here. A .328 slugging percentage makes Brett Gardner look like Barry Bonds. It was also impacted by Renteria’s very low BABip numbers, which was .281, only slightly worse than his .290 BABip from 2008. He’s been around FOREVER, — but he’s actually only 34 — so I’d trust that those numbers return closer to career norms, which would bump his average to somewhere in the mid .270s. I have no answers on the power, but I just can’t forsee any instance of him hitting that low a slugging percentage. It boggles the mind. His K/BB ratio has been rather consistent, so its reasonable to expect a .330-.340 OBP. His batted ball data shows little difference from past years, so he’s not hacking up weak fly balls or more ground balls than usual, though his FB/HR data suggests he’s been getting somewhat unlucky — he registered just a 4.1% of fly balls that became big flies.

His defense will again likely be slightly below average, though shortstops at that age with that much wear and tear can plummet very quickly. I’m going to predict a resurgence (he’s already looked very good in his first few games), but I think the proper expectations should be .274/.340/.390. That will be a huge improvement from last year.

On the left side of him is Pablo Sandoval, of the Robbie Cano School of Swinging at Everything at Actually Hitting Most Everything (they should really shorten their name). Sandoval swung at 41.5% of pitches outside of the zone last year; the league average was 25%. Here’s the best part—he hit 14 percentage points better than the league average while doing so. His overall contact rate was still better than the rest of the league. Incredible. Anyway, somehow he managed to scrape together a walk percentage of 8.2, which I also find perplexing. He hits with serious power, too, posting an ISO of .226, which led to a slugging percentage of .556. If he can improve a bit on defense at 3rd, you’re looking at an unbelievable player. I don’t have much faith he’ll be better than his -6.5 UZR, so he’ll probably eventually have to move to first. Still, his bat will play and he’s still going to have to carry this team offensively.

The second middle infield spot will go to the outrageously lucky Juan Uribe. His BABip will not be .325 again. It hadn’t broken .300 since 2004, so expect him to slip there. There is good reason to believe his power is real. His ISO, at .206 last year, was not the first time he’s hit that or better. He’s done it twice already, and his HR/FB ratio was around those seasons at 12.6%. Even if he does regress a bit to the realm of 10%, that’s still good pop for a 2nd baseman. Still, according to pitch type values, for the first time in his career he really hit fastballs well. That could very well be an outlier. As hitters get older, they generally have more difficulty catching up to the fastball. So Uribe is a bit of a mystery in 2010. He won’t hit .289 or have an OBP over .330 but should provide 15-25 home runs with good defense at 2B. It sure would be nice if he learned how to walk once in a while, though.

At 1st base we should see a healthy dose of The Corpse of Aubrey Huff and Travis Ishikawa. I don’t think Ishikawa is Japanese. Anyway, Ishikawa doesn’t hit for great contact, doesn’t have much power for a 1st baseman and strikes out WAY too much. His walk rate is close to average, so when coupled with the high strikeouts, he’s not going to do very much offensively. They’d be happy to get .270/.330/.430 out of him. But he’s supposedly a good defender, so he’s got that going on.

Huff is likely to see most of the action at 1B, where he hopes to carry his 2008 season and leapfrog 2009 altogether. Few thought he’d replicate 2008, which saw him with a .552 slugging percentage and an OPS+ of 137. But damn, 2009 sucked! His ISO dropped to .136, he hit a ton of grounders and isn’t fleet of foot. Final line: .241/.310/.384. The Giants are praying for a miracle here; he might be done.

Catcher: One of the few bright spots of the Giants’ organization is the catching position. You’ve all heard of Buster Posey, no doubt. He should be up in June or so — once they retain an additional year of his service time — and most think he has the potential to be an All-Star catcher for years to come. His minor league numbers suggest he’ll be very good, but we saw the even-more talented Matt Wieters struggle for his first few months before picking it up late in the season. How much playing time he’ll get at catcher has also yet to be determined. He may log some innings at first base. But at least there’s a young up-and-commer with star potential the Giants can put around Sandoval. The minors don’t feature a lot of top-notch hitting prospects. And one of the better ones might be a murderer (no, not Barry Bonds!).

For now, the Giants have Bengie Molina, just one of the 70 Molina brothers playing professional baseball somewhere. He had a solid season last year, hitting 20 home runs and knocking in 80 runs. But wait. His OBP was an outrageously funny .285! .285? Seriously? How does that even happen?

Best part: that was their clean-up hitter! How rich is that? Anyway, Bengie’s usually a good bet to hit his BABip for average, or at least pretty close. It could be anywhere from .260-.290. We’ll see. What he certainly won’t be doing is walking. Bengie Molina managed to walk 13 times in 520 plate appearances. And three of them were intentional! I feel like that should be a drinking game. 1 Bengie Molina walk=finish tub of moonshine. Anyway, at least he’ll provide some power behind Sandoval and anyone that might possibly get on base before him.

"I am so high right now."

Starting Pitching: Finally, some good news! The Giants feature as good as any 1-2 combo in the league in Timmy “Bong Hit” Lincecum and Matt Cain. We all know about Lincecum, and I’m already up to about 1800 words, so I’ll spare much detail on him. I’ll merely say, “He’s really fucking good and a legit ace. It’s a treat to watch him pitch.” Cain is often touted as an ace, but I’m not sure that he really deserves the pub. He’s good, don’t get me wrong. But is he really that good? He’d outperformed his FIP in 2009, but was able to get batters to swing at more balls out of the zone, usually a good sign of things to come. Still, his strand rate was pretty high at 81.6% and his FIP was a full run lower than his ERA and his BABip was .268, which are certainly not sustainable peripherals. His overall K-rate actually went down, so what are we really left with? Well, there are some positives. His HR/FB data will probably lower a bit, though hitters will get on base more. If he can continue to elicit swings on balls out of the zone, which he’s progressed at, and keep the low walk ratio, he could certainly overcome some of the discrepancies in what his ERA should be and what it is. He’s probably not a true ace, not according to the data now, but as a number 2 starter, he’s probably good for about 15 wins, an ERA of around 3.70 and 185+ innings.

Barry Zito, the man who unfortunately faces a hostile group of fans for accepting a contract that shouldn’t have been given out (you should be mad at Sabean, not Zito; there were clear signs Zito wasn’t what he’d been expected to be), actually improved in 2009. No, he’s not going to be worth what he’s paid. Duh. Let’s look at the data—Zito’s ERA in 2009 was 4.06, pretty good for a 3rd starter, and his xFIP was 4.46, which is also not too bad. Again, it’s expectations that need to be tempered. But check this out —his K/9 was actually better than Cain’s last year. Seriously. I didn’t make that up. His BABip was actually a bit higher than his career norms, though it wasn’t excessively so. His walks were a bit high at 3.80 but they weren’t crazy excessive. He also re-found his curveball and used his fastball sparingly, instead relying on a kitchen-sink approach to work hitters. He’s learning. That’s good. You don’t need an incredible fastball to be good. Keeping hitters off balance and still having an out pitch in his curveball should be good enough to keep Barry Zito where he needs to be — a dependable starter that can give you innings and pitch 6-7 innings of 3-4 run ball. No one’s asking for Cy Young.

The fourth starter will be former no-hit Jonathan Sanchez. He’s always had good stuff with a good fastball, plus-changeup and solid breaking ball. Though he struggled earlier in his career, first in the bullpen then in the rotation, Sanchez really rebounded in 2009. He posted an ERA of 4.24 with an xFIP of 4.19. Most encouraging were the contact rates and K/9 numbers. He averaged 9.75 K/9 and a contact percentage of 73.8%. That’s really good. It would be nice to see him lower the walks, which would be downright silly with his great strikeout numbers, but at this point, he probably is what he is—an erratic guy that can shut a team down or absolutely lose it due to wildness. I think he’ll be close to replicating his 2009 for 2010.

The last spot in the rotation will belong to either Todd Wellemeyer or Madison Bumgarner. Wellemeyer will begin with the spot but he may very well lose it after a month. Wellemeyer is simply not a very good starting pitcher. He doesn’t have great control (usually a BB/9 rate of around 4-5), doesn’t strike many out (K/9 at around 5-6), and has a troubling history of injuries. Much has been written about the young fireballer, Bumgarner. He tore up the minors with an excellent fastball and refined his off-speed stuff to the point of an average changeup and a pretty good slider. But there are concerns. One is if he can remain healthy enough to stay out there, and what to make of his extreme loss in velocity. He’d lost about 5 mph off his fastball by the time the season was over. That’s scary shit if you’re a Giants fan. Even if his velocity returns, expect a young guy with barely any time in the minors, with questionable secondary pitches to struggle. But most of all, pray for the velocity. If that returns, there’s a chance you’re looking at another top-of-the-rotation starter. If not, who knows where Bumgarner ends falling.

You just knew a douche closer would have a soul patch. On a related note, is the band Smash Mouth still around?

Relief Pitchers: The Giants should again have a strong bullpen in 2010. Closer Brian Wilson (not of Beach Boys fame) and his great fastball should return. He improved in his walk rates, strikeouts, hits and home runs allowed. I don’t like the idea of them giving him $15 million over the next two season (way overpaid), but hey, he could really establish himself as a top-5 closer in 2010. We’ll see if those 2009 stats are sustainable. Setting up for him is Jeremy Affeldt, a groundball pitcher with a bit too high of a walk rate for my tastes. His BABip was also a bit too low at .240. I don’t expect him to be what he was in 2009, but he should still be a guy that can get some strikeouts and keep the ball on the ground. He may make the game interesting too often, but hey, relief pitchers are volatile for a reason.  Also back in action are Sergio Romo and Brian Medders. Romo had a great K/BB at 3.73 but somehow still got hit around, though the ball stayed in the park. His FIP of 2.13 and BABip of .346 are a better reflection of his ability. Medders is a serviceable reliever, but nothing special. Also in the running are old-timer Guillermo Mota, and upstart Dan Runtzler, who has closer potential and Waldis Joacquin.

Final Thoughts: I don’t think the Giants will be a very good hitting team. Neither should you. But they’ll be better than they were in 2009. With arguably the best pitching staff in the National League, and one of the better bullpens, they should be in the running for a playoff spot, and should get one if they only receive average production out of their lineup. Still, even if Rowand, Renteria, DeRosa, Huff all rebound, what could they possibly produce? There’s a good chance many of them are done and young guys in slugger positions don’t really get on base and don’t have very good power. The Giants could be in real trouble. The Rockies look like a more complete team. Prediction: 87 wins, no playoffs.

2010: The Rays last chance to swing at the big boys of the East

This may be the last year of Tampa as a contender.  They’ve already stated they are cutting payroll for next year which assures that Carlos Pena and Carl Crawford are out the door.  While they do have a stable of young prospects ready to come up, they are just that, prospects.  At this point you know what you’re getting from Pena and Crawford in 2010, you can only hope the replacements do decent impersonation of them in 2011. With the Yankees and Red Sox in the division, and a growing Orioles team with a bunch of young studs on their way, the Rays have to strike now.

Outfield: Carl Crawford is a damn fine player in LF.  His career line seems rather underwhelming for all of the talk about how great he is, but once you dig through you can see it’s well deserved.  Along with being the best defensive LF in baseball, Crawford has truly been a stellar player for the last 5 or 6 years.  He was in the bigs at 20, and struggled his way to an 80 OPS+ over his first 889 AB’s.  From age 22 on, and including a bad 2008 season, Crawford has hit .300/.342/.456 for a 109 OPS+ with 298 steals and the aforementioned defense.  He’s a stud.  BJ Upton is one of the biggest enigmas in baseball.  On October 1^st 2010 we could be discussing where he’ll land in the MVP voting, or we could be discussing his benching.  Who knows?  Every time he’s looked ready to break out, he’s regressed.  As a 22 year old, Upton hit .300/.386/.508, 136 OPS+ with 24 HR’s and 22 steals in 129 games.  He looked like a perennial MVP candidate, yet the last two years has OPS+’d 108 and 79.  He’s a great defender in CF (10.3 and 11.0 UZR in 2008/2009), and is likely to get better, as he is still relatively new to the outfield.  At the very least, with his age and lack of experience, he shouldn’t be expected to get worse.  Which BJ Upton shows up this year could make or break the Rays.  In RF is Matt Joyce, who looked solid in 2008 in Detroit, yet didn’t do much for Tampa Bay in 2009 after coming over in a trade for Edwin Jackson. Best case scenario he’s a slight above average hitter for the Rays, worst case scenario he’s not a starter by the end of year.  Either way, the Rays season won’t hinge on Joyce.

Infield: The Rays have a strong infield that is potentially great, but that’s assuming no regression from Ben Zobrist at 2B and Jason Bartlett at SS.  That’s a big assumption.  Prior to 2009, Bartlett had over 1500 AB’s in the majors with an 86 OPS+ before breaking out last year with a .320/.389/.490 129 OPS+ line.  Gee, what’s the outlier?  Unless he’s been sharing David Ortiz’ Wheaties, Bartlett is due for regression.  That being said, as long as he’s still providing very strong defense at SS (though 2009 wasn’t great) and an OPS+ around 95, he’s a valuable player.  Like Bartlett, Zobrist is due for a regression in 2010, though probably not as severe.  2009 was Zobrist’s first full season, and it was beastly, hitting .297/.405/.543 with a 146 OPS+ and playing all over the diamond.  He was a strong hitter in 2008 in a part time role (120 OPS+) and in the minors (.888 OPS).  He won’t be as good in 2010, but at 2B, he will be a very strong player.  Carlos Pena at 1B is what he is. Expect a lot of strikeouts, a low average, and a lot of home runs.  While his breakout 2007 was likely the best we’ll ever see from him, he’s probably settled in as a 35 HR guy with a 125-135 OPS+ and strong defense at 1B.  At 3B is the prime jewel of the Rays, Evan Longoria.  Longoria has been in the league for 2 years, and has been great.  At 24 years old on Opening Day, you can only expect him to get better.  Expect to see Longoria in the top 10 of the MVP voting for years to come.

Catcher: Dioner Navarro is expected to be the Rays starting catcher, but with the off season pickup of Kelly Shoppach, Navarro will be on a short leash.  After a breakout 2008 (100 OPS+), Navarro fell back to Earth and beyond in 2009 with a .218/.261/.322 52 OPS+ line.  If he doesn’t hit early, I full expect Shoppach to become the #1 catcher.  Shoppach had his own breakout in 2008 with 21 HR’s and a 128 OPS+, and while he also regressed in 2009 it wasn’t nearly to Navarro’s level.  Despite a similar .214 batting average, Shoppach was able to get on base (.335) and slug (.399) at much higher levels than Navarro, resulting in a 98 OPS+, more than adequate for a catcher.  By October, I expect Shoppach to have the brunt of games caught for the 2010 Rays.

DH: Pat Burrell, by being a #1 overall pick and playing in Philadelphia, has probably been underrated throughout his career, but he was terrible in 2009 for the Rays.  Was that the outlier for him, or just the beginning of the end?  In the previous 4 years he had OPS+’d 126 but was a ghastly for a DH 78 last year.  If he can bounce back into the 115 range he’ll keep the job, but if he struggles early, he could find himself as the right handed bat in a platoon with Hank Blalock, or gone altogether.

Starting Rotation: The Rays go 5 deep with good young arms.  David Price, in my opinion, is the only one I can see being a true top of the rotation ace, but they sure don’t have any automatic losses in the rotation. Expect struggles from Wade Davis in his first full season, especially in the AL East, and Niemann and Price will struggle from time to time as well.  Matt Garza and James Shields are solid pitchers probably best slotted as #3 guys in a rotation, not #1 and #2.  Price may be good enough to slide them down by himself.

Relief Pitching: The Rays finally have a closer after picking up Rafael Soriano in the offseason.  With Balfour, Howell, Wheeler, Sonnanstine and others, the Rays figure to have a decent bullpen this year that can only be helped by not playing Closer Roulette.

Final Outlook: If Zobrist and Bartlett can replicate 2009 in conjunction with an Upton breakout, the Rays certainly have a chance to be a thorn in the Yankees and Red Sox sides.  If not, Crawford and Pena could be shopped at the deadline to see if they can be had for more than the picks they would gain when they leave as free agents.  I’m leaning towards the latter, both the Yankees and Red Sox have at least held steady from 2009, and I think they’ve both improved.  Upton might just need a change of scenery, and I can’t see the middle infield as productive as last year.  I expect a 3^rd place finish and the end of the current era of Rays baseball as we know it.

As he goes, so do the Rockies.

The Colorado Rockies a pretty up-and-down season in 2009. Perhaps that’s not the best phrase. They have a very down and very, very up season in 2009. After starting 18-28, the Rockies fired manager Clint Hurdle. Hurdle was a personality that some felt wore on the players, a source of anxiety, not calm effectiveness. Enter Jim Tracy. Former Dodger and Pirate manager, few expected Tracy’s quiet managing style to bring much success. He’s more from the Joe Torre School of Managing People, not the tactical match-up man we seem to be encountering more in this era. I mean, shit, he was fired by the Pirates. That’s like getting fired from Denny’s. So expectations were low.

But suddenly, under Tracy, the Rockies figured out how to play baseball and went 74-22. They made it to the Wild Card with strong performances by blossoming star pitcher Ubaldo Jiminez, the still-valuable Todd Helton, Jason Marquis (?), Huston Street, Jorge De la Rosa and a deep outfield oozing with talent. With no clear-cut favorite in the NL West with the Dodgers more worried about how to try and not pay Jaime McCourt the $1 million she needs to pay off the mortgages of seven residences; the Padres still in rebuilding mode (along with a divorce); Arizona relying heavily on bounce-back guys and injured players; and the Giants basically fielding five Cody Ransom’s in their everyday lineup –  the Rockies figure to be a favorite. They certainly have the talent to win that division and seemingly fewer question marks than the other teams.

Outfield: There might not be a better collection of talented outfielders that can break out than in the mountains of Colorado. CF Dexter Fowler came up early in 2009 and overall had a very good season. He finished 2009 with a line of .266/.363/.406 and was able to contribute on the base paths with 27 steals. Looks pretty good, right? Not so fast. Don’t read too much into this, as he was just a rookie and few would be able to really excel, particularly after skipping AAA. Fowler’s platoon splits look a bit off. Against lefties he hit .322/.374/.470, but against right-handers he struggled to hit .228/.344/.353. It’s not terrible, but might be something worth keeping an eye on. Even beyond that is his home/away split. He hit .289/.387/.414 in the confines of Coors. But outside of it he slumped to .227/.317/.367. This is just one year, so don’t be too alarmed. He was able to walk 12.9% last year. Very promising for a guy with little power and at his age. But the strikeouts were also over 25% (26.3), well over the league average. For a guy with minimal power, he’ll be challenged more. Fangraphs’ plate discipline number suggest he might be a bit timid, and his contact rates were also fairly average. Certainly a trend to look out for. UZR didn’t like Fowler in 2009. Still, he’s a bright guy (turned down Harvard to sign after high school) with good work ethic and elite athleticism. There’s no reason he shouldn’t be able to put up good defense. There’s also a good chance he learns to hit righties. He also has a big frame that could add muscle, so he could start putting more of a shock in the ball over the next few years. But don’t expect more than 10 home runs this year.

Brad Hawpe will again provide some thump for the Rockies. His first half of 2009 was looking really promising. I mean, definite awards-possibilities promising. By the time the All-Star break rolled around, Hawpe was hitting .320/.396/.577. But he fell off in the second half of 2009, posting .240/.370/.442. He’ll give you lots of walks, lots of doubles, a fair amount of home runs (over 20), lots of K’s and some of the worst defense seen since Adam Dunn in RF. If he doesn’t get out to a hot start, he might find himself a victim of Colorado’s outfield depth. Seth Smith could take his job.

He’ll be joined in the OF by my chic pick for breakout stardom, Carlos Gonzalez. His talent level is really, really high. Legitimate possibility for a 30-30 season. But…his plate discipline right now leaves a lot to be desired.  His walk rates in his 175 big league games is 6.6%. That needs to improve, along with his 25% k-rate. There are signs to believe he might be turning the corner. He had trouble hitting lefties earlier in his career, but 2009 brought him much closer to where the Rockies would like him to be, putting up .276/.343/.466. He was also able to put up a 9.9% walk rate in AAA and 8.8% in Colorado, a huge improvement over the 4% and 6% seasons of his days in the lower minors. It’s not great, but it’s a positive sign he’s learning to lay off on certain pitches. He swings at far too many pitches outside of the zone, though he’s not a great contact hitter. If he can maintain his power (.241 ISO) and speed (16 steals in 89 games) over the course of the season, and take a walk here and there, he’ll be a monster. He profiles as a plus defender in left field.

Should Gonzalez succumb to his poor habits in laying off balls out of the zone, Seth Smith will be waiting in the wings. Smith brings a lot to the table and could probably start for many teams. But with the depth in Colorado, he’s likely to be the team’s 4th outfielder. Smith has similar power to Gonzalez (.218 ISO in ’09), plays better defense than Hawpe, and has fairly good on-base skills. I expect him to finish the year as the team’s starting right fielder.

Todd Helton after hearing he'd won a role in the series Deadwood.

Infield: Any talk about a Colorado team’s infield will revolve around Troy Tulowitzki. He’s easily the most important player on this team. He fills in a critical defensive position with solid defense, carries a big stick (32 home runs in ’09, a wOBA of  .393 and an amazing second half of the year), and really get the team going. He isn’t great away from Coors with a career line of .263/.337/.431, but last year’s improvement might represent a sign of things to come. If that’s the case, watch out. Legit competitor to Hanley. He’ll hit clean-up behind 1B Todd Helton. Helton’s no longer going to be putting up monster home run totals. But he’s still one of the best pure hitters of this generation, though he gets little pub, a result of playing in Colorado. His career batting average is .328 and his OBP is a robust .427. I really like Helton and I think he’ll continue his high-average, high-OBP trend. Look for .320/.390/.500. The only real concern is the health. If healthy, he’s good for an OPS+ of 130 or better, though his .348 BABip was the highest it’s been since 2005, so a bit of regression should be expected. Pray for Helton’s health if you’re a Rox fan. It’s hard not to like a guy that gets on base 40% of the time and hits for a very high average.

After Helton and Tulo, it gets a bit shaky in Denver. 2B will feature some mix of Clint “The Deerhunter” Barmes and Eric Young Jr. Hopefully EJjr. is better at baseball than his father is at “analysis” or whatever the bullshit he spews is called. Barmes actually began his career as a possible impact RoY candidate, but has since been plagued with weird injuries, normal injuries, inconsistency, and terrible on-base skills. He does play a good 2B and has power, but an OBP under .300 is not going to cut it. On the other hand, Young Jr. doesn’t profile as a good defender but will provide tons of speed and should get on base more than Barmes. This should be the weakest position in Colorado this year.

Rox fans must be glad Garrett Atkins is in Baltimore. He was the baseball equivalent of Dr. Jeckyl and Mr. Hyde. In steps Ian Stewart, 24, with promising power. But there’s a caveat — his batting average last year was .228. His BABip (.270) suggests he should rebound to hit around .260 and an on-base % of near .340. It would also be nice to see him drop his K% to somewhere under 30%, which would be a great boon to his power (.235 ISO in ’09). He’s closer to a two-true-outcomes player than even three at this point, so a little more balance would do wonders for him. His defense should be average at the hot corner, which will be a big improvement over how Atkins became in his last few years in Colorado.

Catcher: It’s hard not to like a guy named Yorvit, even if it reminds me of that awful Eddie Murphy movie. Anyway, he’s gone and he’s been replaced by Chris Ianetta. Ianetta, 26, is still young and has shown good power the past few years. His defense is well regarded, but there is some concern that his K-rate won’t improve (it’s been around 27% for his career) and he’s too streaky a hitter. He might initially share a platoon with Miguel Olivo. Miguel Olivo? WHAT THE FUCK? HE’S TERRIBLE! He can barely OBP .300! Ianetta may be streaky but he’s significantly better than Olivo. Ianetta suffered from an BABip of .262 last season. It should rebound to around .300 or so, which, along with his power and good walk rate, will give him a season closer to 2007, where his wOBA was .391. Expect Ianetta to have a strong season and Olivo to be largely irrelevant.

The Rockies have a nice mix of average (Helton), power (Atkins), speed (Young Jr.), defense (Barmes) in the infield, which is reflected back in Tulo’s ability to do all of those things well. This infield won’t blow you away, but it should definitely retain some value and be a team strength in 2010, provided health is there. Jason Giambi will give the team some power as a PH and occasional 1B and Omar Quintella, a rather poor offensive player, will be the utility infielder. Bad shit has happened if you see a lot of that guy.

An ace in the making.

Starting Pitching: Ubaldo Jimenez, one of the hardest throwers in the big leagues, really put it together in 2009. Many are expecting him to become a legit ace in 2010. And he very well could be. If anything holds Jimenez back, it won’t be his stuff. Coming in with a blistering fastball with great movement, a tight slider with great movement, and a changeup that can freeze batters where they stand. His xFIP last season was 3.63, his K/BB was 2.33 and he kept the ball on the ground. Even in hitter-happy Coors, that’s a recipe for success. Strike guys out, keep the ball on the ground, don’t walk many. He might just be the first legitimate ace Colorado has ever seen.

Behind Jimenez is another talented pitcher that quietly had an excellent 2009. Jorge de la Rosa was able to pitch 185 innings last year, a career high. Beyond being healthy and getting the opportunity to stick in the rotation, de la Rosa even improved his best still — his K-rate jumped to 9.39 and he even lowered his BB/9 to a career low 4.04. He’s never going to be a guy with precision control, but if de la Rosa can keep the balls on the ground near the 44% he was at last year, along with the missed bats, that will be more than enough to be a top #2 starter in the NL West. It’s no accident his xFIP was 3.63 the previous season. With Stewart, Tulowitzki, Barmes and Helton, he should have better defense behind him this year and see his ERA fall a bit closer to his FIP.  Still, he was a Royals throw-away and his WHIP was still a bit high at 1.378, a result of over 8 hits p/9 and the walk rate being so high during the first half of the season. So exercise caution, though I think he’s the real deal. The stuff has always been there, now it’s just a bit more refined. In the second half, de la Rosa was 10-2 with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP.

It sounds weird to say but ginger kid Aaron Cook was the “ace” in 2008. His role is now more of an innings-eating #3 starter that won’t be expected to carry the load. And it’s better that way. He still allows too many men on base and doesn’t have strike-out stuff, but again, a ground ball pitcher in Colorado with a competent defensive infield should succeed. Succeed he has, despite throwing nearly as many walks as strikeouts over the years. The Rox know the formula in the thin air is GB-pitchers, and few are better at eliciting grounders than Cook.  If healthy and going 200 innings, he’s worth every penny they’re paying him. Slotted as the #4 in the rotation few expected former Rays pitcher Jason Hammel to be much of anything. But he was able to give Colorado 177 innings of pretty good pitching. Some are even comparing him to Current Ray Jeff Niemann. His stuff isn’t nearly as good as Niemann (average fastball without much movement, but decent breaking pitches) and some think playing at Coors will catch up to a guy that hasn’t had great control or elicit many ground balls. But he was able to get a 46% GB rate last year and limit his walks to about 2/9. I don’t think it’s sustainable, but he should be a serviceable #4. The last spot will be filled with some combination of Jeff Francis, if he comes back from injury, or Greg Smith, a flyball pitcher that impressed this Spring. Don’t expect too much here, though if Francis can return to his 2007 production, this rotation should be able to get them to the playoffs and make some serious noise. Also waiting in the wings are top prospects Christian Friedrich and Jhoulys Chacin, both with #2 or #3 starter upside.

Maybe Street can see five moves ahead and let fantasy owners know when he'll be going down with injury.

Relief Pitching: If Huston Street is healthy, the bullpen shouldn’t be too bad next season. But, like all bullpens, this one is volatile. Joining Street is new addition Rafael Betancourt. Good one year, bad the next. He posted a 1.78 ERA with a WHIP of .086 (!) and a K/BB of 5.80 in his 32 appearances for Colorado after being shipped here from Cleveland. I’m cautiously optimistic that he’ll again be good (though nowhere near that good), which should be a pleasant sighting in the 8th for Rockies fans. Still, if he reverts back to the Rafael of 2008 or early 2009, there could be issues. Somewhere between the starters and Betancourt will be Manny Corpas, a guy that broke out in 2007 but has since really struggled with performance and injury. Also in the mix is lightning-armed youngster Franklin Morales.

A top prospect last year, Morales was placed in the bullpen, and he responded with (shocker) control issues but was able to strike out more than a better per inning. He might never be back in the rotation, but if he can find the plate, he could put up a K/9 of 12 and might be an early favorite for the closer’s spot should Street catch the injury bug (again).

Final Outlook: This team is as good as any in the NL West. They’ll hit the ball. They have a few guys with good speed, their outfield defense (even with Hawpe) should be improved, the infield defense will definitely be improved and their pitchers are either good groundball guys or strikeout machines. A lot of this may hinge on the bullpen, which has the potential to be lights-out but could also be horrible and/or injured. I see a 92-win team and the NL West title.

Real funny guys. Alright, who stole Youk's razor?



Once again the Red Sox are amongst the best teams in baseball and are legitimate title contenders.  In any other division in baseball, they would likely be the prohibitive favorite, but in the AL East they could finish anywhere from 1^st to 3^rd.  While many traditionalists did not like the Sox’ moves this offseason I think Theo and company did a fantastic job (and all as a middle market team right John Henry?).  They upgraded a 95 win team, and while it wasn’t cheap, they left themselves very flexible in the long term if the right player becomes available (Adrian Gonzalez?).  Expect big things from the Sox this year.

Outfield: Jacoby Ellsbury has moved to LF with the acquisition of great defensive CF Mike Cameron.  Ellsbury often made highlight reel plays, but also had bad instincts in CF, which led to a very poor UZR of -18.6.  Expect Jacoby to be much improved defensively in LF, and playing 81 games in front of the Green Monster will help hide his poor arm.  Offensively, the Sox would love to see Jacoby make the leap from solid to start this year, and it starts with on base percentage.  He was at .355 last year, including .363 in the 2^nd half.  If he can bump that to .375, look out.  Jacoby hits both lefties and righties equally well, and isn’t as reliant on Fenway Park as many of his teammates are.  Mike Cameron is simply an underrated player, and he has been for years.  He has been a fantastic CF for 15 years, and an above average hitter the whole time.  He’s essentially Torii Hunter without the fanfare.  At some point he’ll slow down, but it doesn’t appear he’s ready quite yet.  While his batting average is low and he strikes out a ton, he gets on base and hits for power very well for a great defensive CF.  Expect a nice boost from Cameron has a right handed pull hitter playing half his games in Fenway.  In RF is J.D. Drew, who everyone in Boston hates, but is a very good player.  He does everything well, and if he plays 135+ games he’s extremely valuable.  Sure he’s a ninny who seems to take games off more than Manny ever did, but he produces.  Please don’t pay any attention to RBI totals.  For those worried about losing Jason Bay’s 119 RBI, Jason Bay has driven in 16% of baserunners in his career, Drew has driven in 15%.  Not much of a difference now is there? Maybe he should rub some pine tar on his helmet, ala Trot Nixon to get some appreciation.

Infield: The Sox offseason overhaul continues in the infield, where they have a new and improved left side of the infield.  They have plus defenders at all 4 infield spots, and have truly cleaned up the Mike Lowell/Julio Lugo/Nick Green mess they had last year at 3B and SS.  The new 3B is Adrian Beltre, who is as good as it gets defensively at the hot corner.  Expect a nice offensive bump out of Safeco as well, but don’t expect a repeat of his, shall we say, suspicious 2004 contract year.  Beltre should be a little better than league average as a hitter, which combined with his glove at 3B makes him a nice, short term signing for the Sox.  The revolving door at SS continues, this time opening for Marco Scutaro, coming off a career year at the age of 33.  Even if it was a fluke, the financial outlay wasn’t nearly what the Sox blew on both Edgar Renteria and Julio Lugo.  Scutaro is a strong defender, but expect regression from the bat.  Last years 111 OPS+ was a huge increase on his career OPS+ of86 coming into the season.  If he can put up an OPS+ of 90-100 while playing above average D at SS, Scutaro, at least for a year or two, can solve the Sox problems at SS.  At 2B is Dustin Pedroia, who combines fantastic defense with a great bat………….at home.  On the road Pedroia is simply pedestrian (.283/.350/.406 career).  Even with his drastic home/road splits, a great defender at 2B who will be around 110-120 OPS+ is a great player.  First baseman Kevin Youkilis is the best player on the team.  A great defender at 1B and solid at 3B, Youk is also a very tough out with plenty of pop in his bat.  Youk has truly been a monster the past two years (and no, I’m not talking about his face) who probably should have won the MVP in 2008 that went to Pedroia.  Last year the Sox as a team had an OPS of 109 points higher at home than on the road, including Pedroia who’s OPS was 167 points higher at home.  Youkilis?  Youk’s OPS was just 59 points higher at home than on the road.  On the road, Pedroia is no longer a threat; Youk is a beast no matter where he’s playing.

Catcher: Unfortunately for those who aren’t fans of the Sox, they will no longer be running Jason Varitek out there every day.  Varitek hasn’t been a good hitter in years, and his “game calling” prowess is simply something made up to justify barroom arguments about baseball.  If there is no statistical evidence to disprove that Varitek isn’t a good game caller, he must be one right?  And it must be a huge factor, right?  BS.  Catching for the Sox from day 1 this year will be Victor Martinez.  Martinez, to be most valuable, needs to be catching.  As a DH or 1B, he is middle of the pack offensively, as a C he is in a group just below Joe Mauer.  A full year in Boston will be good for Martinez offensively, and having a strong pitching staff will make him appear to be a better “game caller” though of course Varitek will get the credit for having taught him.  Martinez simply doesn’t throw out runners, but hell Varitek didn’t either, which was always blamed on the pitchers’ lack of a slide step.  Back to Martinez, in 5 full seasons in the majors, he’s never had an OPS+ less than 122.  Expect more of the same in 2010.

DH: The expected DH is David Ortiz.  I do say expected, as there is a chance he will take some time off from baseball to continue his research into how in the world he could have possibly failed a steroids test.  Rumors abound that Papi has put the search on hold, at least until he helps OJ find the real killers.  Good luck with that.  Ortiz was terrible early last year, and can no longer catch up to a good fastball.  As long as Mike Lowell stays around, Papi won’t be given as much rope this year.  If he sucks early, and Lowell is still there, Lowell will soon take at-bats away from Ortiz.  If Lowell is gone, finding a DH type back on the trade (or free agent) market won’t be tough, so Papi will need to hit early, or sit.  Because this is Papi’s last year under contract, the Red Sox brass are hard at work on their annual smear campaign that they have used against former players like Nomar Garciaparra, Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe, Manny Ramirez and Jason Bay.  Am I missing anyone?

Starting Rotation: While the Sox 1-3 pitchers have question marks, they have 3 strong pitchers leading the way. The best of the 3 will be Jon Lester, who will likely be a Cy Young contender.  Josh Beckett and John Lackey have had very similar careers, and while Lackey is more consistent, Beckett’s best is better than Lackey’s.  If they get close to 600 innings out of their top 3, they will have success.  At 4 and 5 will likely be Daisuke Matsuzaka and Clay Buchholz.  While Matsuzaka had a very strong (and very lucky) 2008, 2009 was a disaster in both performance and health.  I’m sure those regular 150 pitch games in Japan didn’t help.  Of course Dice-K did come to camp in the traditional “best shape of his career” this year.  Where will Dice-K be on Opening Day, you ask?  On the DL of course.  The key to the rotation will likely be laptop thief Clay Buchholz.  While he has shown flashes of brilliance, Buchholz has yet to put it all together at the big league level.  At 25 (26 in August) with 190 big league innings, there’s still time, but the clock is ticking.  To put in perspective, Buchholz is a year older than fellow AL East youngsters David Price, Wade Davis and Joba Chamberlin, and 2 years older than Phil Hughes.  It’s not a make or break season, but he certainly needs to improve.  Buchholz has the stuff, but seems to fall apart when a runner is one base, throwing over constantly and seemingly not trusting his stuff.

Relief Pitching: The Sox bullpen should be strong again in 2010, but there are some worries.  Jonathan Papelbon, who truly had a historic start to his career, slipped quite a bit last year.  While he was still good, he pitched himself in and out of a ton of trouble.  He also seemed cut back on the use of his splitter (saving his arm for free agency?), which took a huge weapon out of his arsenal.  While his fastball velocity remained strong, it’s much more hittable without worrying about the split.  Due to this, batters swung at just 26% of pitches out of the strike zone in 2009, down from 34% in 2008.  Hideki Okajima remains a solid weapon out of the pen, who is death on lefties but also very good against righties.  Okajima had by far his worst season in the states in 2009, and considering he wasn’t great in Japan, it could be that the league is starting to catch up to him.  Daniel Bard and his 100 MPH fastball were a revelation last year when he first got called up, but he really struggled down the stretch.  Did the league catch up with him, or was it just a small sample size?  While everyone wants to appoint him as the next great reliever/closer, he’s far from a sure thing.  He’s just as likely to become Kyle Farsnworth as he is Papelbon’s replacement.  Also in the bullpen are live arms in Manny Delcarmen and Ramon Ramirez, but they bring questionable results.  The Sox bullpen is unlikely to be a downfall, but could certainly go through some pains.

Final Outlook: By October, expect the Red Sox to be contenders for the World Series.  With their top 3 starters they match up well with anyone in a playoff series, and with much improved defense and a deeper lineup 1-9, the Sox are a better team than the 2009 version.  They will still struggle on the road, but will remain a force in Fenway.  If they can win the East and get home field advantage throughout the playoffs, they’ll be tough to stop.  If they win the Wild Card, the challenge certainly will be toughed, but one that they are strong enough to overcome.  As they like to say in Boston in April, “This is the Year.”  Will it truly be the year, or will the familiar refrain of “Wait till next year” come back again in October?

They pray for Scurvy.

To give a sense of perspective on how long the Pirates have been atrocious, since their last winning season, 1992, every single woman born that year in Mississippi has had at least two babies. That didn’t help much, did it? Whatever. Anyway,  if you believe what arguably the worst owners in sports are saying (the Nutting family), the Pirates might actually compete fairly soon. Unlike past years, where the best thing that could happen to the franchise was Derek Bell living in International Waters to avoid paying taxes, they’ll be able to show off some talented young players—Pedro Alvarez, the 2nd overall pick in the 2008 draft, Jose Tabata (may actually be 32-years-old and related to Jose Contreras), Andrew McCutchen (a legit top-5 CF in the making), and still-young Lastings Millege (who had a solid average for them last year in 58 games, though struggled overall).

Outfield: Shockingly, the Pirates outfield might actually be pretty good. Like, legitimately solid. Any conversation of the Pirates outfield starts and ends with Andrew McCutchen, who in his first season contributed with speed (22 steals) and solid hitting (.286/.365/.471 with a wRC+ of 128). UZR says he was -0.7 in 107 games in CF last year, which is far too small a sample by which to judge. Scouting reports peg him as a top defender, so I’ll defer to that until the numbers say otherwise. All projections next year have his wRC+ as anywhere between 114-127. Or, if you like wOBA, he should be around the .350s.

Next up is the difficult-but-talented Lastings Millege. Brought back in the trade that saw Nyjer Morgan succeed in Washington, Millege had an up-and-down 2009. His walks dropped from around 6% (already not great) to 4% and his strikeout percentage continued to hover at around 20%. Worse, the plus-power potential he’s displayed at various points in his career all but vanished in 2009. His ISO was .094 last season. That’s like Rey Ordonez-power.

All told, he ended 2009 with an OBP of .323 and an OPS of .696. That’s not getting the job done. He’ll need to stop swinging at pitches outside the zone (31% to the league average of 25%) to be more successful. He’s not Robinson Cano — he can’t hit everything. Good news is his UZR in 2009 was 5.4, which helped make up for his weak power and on-base woes in 2009. He’ll be turning 25 around opening day, so there’s still hope he can develop into the 5-tool player the Mets envisioned him being when they drafted him in 2003.

The final man in Pittsburgh’s outfield was former minor league purgatory player Garrett Jones, who at 28 finally broke out and made the big club. He responded by hitting .292/.372/.567 in 82 games with an ISO of .274. The numbers look gaudy, but require closer inspection. While Jones killed righties with a .333/.426/.620 (!), his numbers against lefties were .208/.243/.455, a stark contrast. He’s like the best-case-scenario 2007 Juan Miranda.

But on a serious note, Jones also had a much higher walk rate (11%) than he’d ever had in the minors and better power. This was a strange season, unquestionably. Pitch type values reveal Jones wasn’t able to hit the fastball (-14.6) and didn’t excel against any other pitch last year. We’d need to see a larger sample to make some larger conclusion, but if that, along with his numeric outliers and Howard-ian platoon splits are telling, he’ll be a major regression candidate. Good news is that’s perfect for former Yankee prospect Jose Tabata, brought here when Nady and Marte joined the Bombers.

Tabata struggled with attitude, immaturity and power numbers in the Yankees system, but seems to have turned the corner a bit. When I say that I mean he’s now reportedly a 29-year-old man from Wisconsin with a 43-year-old wife that kidnapped a baby at a strip mall in Florida. So he’s got that going for him. While his bat has rebounded, he still doesn’t have any power. With just good speed, solid glove and good-not-great on-base skills with zip for power, he’s not an ideal corner outfielder. Especially if he really is in his mid-20s and not 22.

Brandon Moss and Ryan Church step in as 4th and 5th outfielders. Yawn.

Infield: All things considered, the individual players on their own merit are not all that bad (except for Cedeno, who you’ll quickly see ruins my analogy), but when looked at as a unit, they’re a sad bunch. It’s like the opposite of Captain Planet. Andy LaRoach and Jeff Clement aren’t bad players — they’ll give you double digit home runs and average defense — but when the rest of the team are weak power hitters, you need those traditional power positions to be strong. LaRoach can’t get on base (.330 OBP was a good number thus far in his professional career), has fairly weak power for his position (.143 ISO), and isn’t a great contact hitter either, though his BABip have been absurdly low in the big leagues (.257). There may be some hope for improvement, but he might just be what he is—a good defender without the bat to contribute at 3B.

Jeff Clement, brought here in the deal that sent Jack Wilson and Ian Snell to Seattle, had spent much of his time as a catcher, but is now expected to be the first baseman. At C, you could excuse poor defense because his bat was solid for the position. At 1B, that’s not the case. His power might be average (15-20 HRs) with good on-base skills and passable defense, but having three of four power positions at the corners be manned by guys unlikely to hit 20 home runs will create a problem. Hell, even Jones might not stick around if he can’t keep up those strange numbers.

In the middle infield, the Pirates brought along former Ray Iwamura, who should be expected to hit around .280/.350/.390 with average-to-good defense. For $4.8 million, that’s a steal, even though his power is very weak. His doubles partner will be Ronny Cedeno. Cedeno sucks. Straight up. If he were in Captain Planet, he’d be the guy that ate his own clothes, crapped everywhere and talked about the benefits of fertilizer. You’ll be lucky if ‘Ol Ronny gets on base 30% of the time. You’ll be lucky if his UZR isn’t -10 or worse. No need for fear—former RoY Bobby Crosby will be there to back him up. Peter Gammons has already singled him out as a likely MVP candidate. Fucking shoot me now.

There’s some good news to all of this—Ryan Doumit, when healthy, can really hit the ball. Doumit was solid in 2008, hitting .318/.357/.501. In 2009, he fractured his wrist and really struggled afterward, though he rebounded in September to hit .346/.424/.481. If he can stay on the field, he’s a top-5 offensive catcher, something a weak-hitting team like the Pirates could really use.

Also, hotshot prospect Pedro Alvarez is almost ready. He might not get there ’til the AS break, but he can really mash. If you’re a Pirates fan, you’ll want to keep an eye on him. Other than McCutchen, no one profiles to be a superstar in the organization. While his addition alone won’t make them a contender, don’t be surprised if Alvarez comes up in July and hits .275/.370/.520 with average defense. If not, Derek Bell is probably looking for a job.

Maybe Ross Ohlendorf can become a player/manager/GM?

Starting Pitching: Surprisingly, the Pirates staff really isn’t that bad. Is it good? No. But it could be a lot worse. At the top of the rotation is Paul Malholm, a guy best suited as a mid-rotation starter. He pitches to contact, has low K totals but will keep you in ballgames and eat innings. Definitely not an ace but a solid ground ball pitcher masquerading as a pseudo ace.

Their #2 will likely be Zach Duke, who once upon a time was considered one of the top up-and-coming pitchers in all of baseball. Since then, however, he’s been an all-contact, no-k guy. The primary reason? Though he has an advanced changeup and curveball, his fastball is terrible. It has no movement and the velocity is unimpressive, to say the least. That’s not what the Pirates need, though you could do worse with a ground ball pitcher with excellent control. They need guys that can strike people out and limit runs. Still, he’ll probably have an FIP of anywhere between 4.20-4.70, probably somewhere in the middle. Their team isn’t as good as they were defensively last year. Jones and Millege aren’t as strong as their predecessors in the corners and Cedeno is a net-loss, Iwamura isn’t as good as Freddy Sanchez, either. It’ll be tough for Duke to outperform his ERA this year.

Behind Duke in the 3rd slot is former Yankee farmhand, big-brained Ross Ohlendorf. He has strikeout potential-stuff, but he needs to work on a few things. His FIP was almost a run higher than his ERA, so that’s unsustainable. He also gave up way too many home runs, with a rate of 1.27. Ouch. He has a good fastball with good movement and a nice complimentary slider that acts as more of a slurve. His changeup has also improved, ranking as an above-average pitch in pitch type values. If his stuff can translate into more strikeouts, expect Ohlendorf to be around his FIP. If not, expect an ERA in the high fours , low fives next year.

Jumping into the 4th and 5th spots are perennial underachievers Charlie Morton and Dan McCutchen (unrelated to Andrew). Morton, despite having really good stuff, always seems to put up poor numbers. His fastball is anywhere from 93-96 with excellent movement, he has a tight slider with great movement, a plus curveball and a slightly-below average change. His FIP last year was 4.15, a solid number for him. He’ll need to up the Ks and limit the walks (a 1.55 k/bb last year) but if anyone can actually be a legitimate top-end starter on this team, it’s Morton. He’s at the point where it’s put-up or shut-up.

Closing out the rotation is ho-hum Dan McCutchen. His stuff is average, he gives up way too many fly balls and he lacks the ability to get outs when he needs. Frankly, he’s lucky he has a ML contract. Expect him to throw an ERA in the mid-to-high fives and find himself back in the minors or in the bullpen. Prospect Brad Lincoln might get the call sometime in 2010. He won’t be expected to save the organization, but he can miss some bats and step in for a spotty rotation. He’ll need to keep the ball down to have any success, though.

Bullpen: Why a team that isn’t competing in 2010 would spend $6 million on Octavio Dotel is beyond me. Maybe it’s for morale purposes. You don’t want your young kids actually getting a good game every now and then just to watch Matt Capps get clobbered and ruin any semblance of progress. Dotel’s a decent reliever and certain to be an improvement over Matt Capps. He still has huge K numbers (well over 10/9), high walks (over 5/9) and limits hits. Expect the home runs to rise this year, as last year’s HR/FB was 9.0%, roughly 2% or more off what it usually is. Still, Dotel has some good value.

Working as his primary set-up man is Brendan Donnelly, who quietly had a pretty good season for the Marlins last year. He’s an age/injury concern but Donnelly still possesses good stuff. Don’t expect him to be as good in 2010 (that HR-rate is not going to  happen again), but he’s a solid addition if healthy. Rounding out the re-tooled bullpen are D.J. Carrasco, whose fastball and curve really improved last year, the unimpressive Javier Lopez, Jeff Karstens, Joel Hanrahorrible (of Nats fame) and Evan Meek. Should be much better than last year, but by no means a top bullpen.

Outlook: Again, don’t expect much in 2010. Maybe they’ll get 70 wins. But quietly, GM Neal Huntington has done a good job of putting an extreme makeover on the Pirates. The talent in the upper-minors, outside of Tabata and Alvarez, is low. That’s because Huntington’s predecessor Dave Littlefield was accustomed to choosing terrible baseball players with almost incredible accuracy. Most consistent (lack of) success rate in all of drafting. But the Pirates have spent more than any other team on the draft since Huntington took over. They finally have guys that may be viable MLB starters in McCutchen, Doumit, Tabata, Alvarez, Alderson, Tony Sanchez, Brad Lincoln, Gordys Hernandez. They still have a long way to go, and even if they get there, there’s no guarantee Bob Nutting will allow the payroll to be enough to retain his young players while adding quality veterans, but for once you can argue the Pirates have a future. Wear condoms, Mississippi.

Photo Credits: Gene J. Puskar, AP; J. Scott Applewhite, AP