Previewing the Tampa Bay Rays

Up next for the Yankees will be the 1^st place Tampa Bay Rays, who have the best record in baseball so far.  It will be a 2 game set in New York and will be a test for the Rays, who despite their standing in the media as “the best team in baseball” haven’t played anyone good yet.  In 6 games against teams above .500, they are just 3-3, including 1-2 vs. the Yankees.  Sure they Rays have looked great, but they won’t keep up at this pace.

(all stats thru May 17^th)

Last 10 games: 6-4

Season Record: 28-11 (1^st place in AL East)

Pitching Matchups:

Wednesday 5/19		W/L	ERA	FIP	WHIP
Yankees	Burnett	4-1	3.31	3.68	1.35
Rays	Davis	3-3	3.38	4.94	1.33
Thursday 5/20		W/L	ERA	FIP	WHIP
Yankees	Pettitte	5-0	1.79	3.23	1.15
Rays	Shields	4-1	3.00	3.45	1.30

Offense-Last 7 Days

Who’s Hot:

NAME	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carl Crawford	0.375	0.423	0.583	1.006
S. Rodriguez	0.333	0.333	0.556	0.889
Evan Longoria	0.250	0.308	0.542	0.849

Who’s Not:

NAME	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
J. Bartlett	0.167	0.318	0.222	0.54
B.J. Upton	0.182	0.25	0.273	0.523
Carlos Pena	0.2	0.25	0.267	0.517

Nobody has really been tearing the cover off the ball for the Rays other than Crawford, but they do have some regulars that are struggling a bit.  Matchups with AJ Burnett and Andy Pettitte don’t figure to help those that are struggling.

Pitching-Last 7 Days

Who’s Hot:

NAME	IP	K/9	WHIP	ERA
J. Benoit	3.2	14.73	0.00	0.00
Matt Garza	6	3.00	1.17	1.50
James Shields	8	11.25	0.75	2.25

Who’s Not:

NAME	IP	K/9	WHIP	ERA
Dan Wheeler	1.2	16.2	1.8	5.40

Not much nit-picking for the Rays pitching staff in the past week.  Of the 4 games they have lost in their last 10 they’ve given up only 4 runs in three of them, and 5 in another, which was an 11 inning game.  If they Yankees continue to trot out a Scranton like end of the lineup it may continue.  If the Yankees are going to have a big offensive game, I’d expect it in game 1 vs. Wade Davis as James Shields is pitching well (leading league in K/BB ratio) though he is just 1-7 in his career against the Yankees.

This may be the last year of Tampa as a contender.  They’ve already stated they are cutting payroll for next year which assures that Carlos Pena and Carl Crawford are out the door.  While they do have a stable of young prospects ready to come up, they are just that, prospects.  At this point you know what you’re getting from Pena and Crawford in 2010, you can only hope the replacements do decent impersonation of them in 2011. With the Yankees and Red Sox in the division, and a growing Orioles team with a bunch of young studs on their way, the Rays have to strike now.

Outfield: Carl Crawford is a damn fine player in LF.  His career line seems rather underwhelming for all of the talk about how great he is, but once you dig through you can see it’s well deserved.  Along with being the best defensive LF in baseball, Crawford has truly been a stellar player for the last 5 or 6 years.  He was in the bigs at 20, and struggled his way to an 80 OPS+ over his first 889 AB’s.  From age 22 on, and including a bad 2008 season, Crawford has hit .300/.342/.456 for a 109 OPS+ with 298 steals and the aforementioned defense.  He’s a stud.  BJ Upton is one of the biggest enigmas in baseball.  On October 1^st 2010 we could be discussing where he’ll land in the MVP voting, or we could be discussing his benching.  Who knows?  Every time he’s looked ready to break out, he’s regressed.  As a 22 year old, Upton hit .300/.386/.508, 136 OPS+ with 24 HR’s and 22 steals in 129 games.  He looked like a perennial MVP candidate, yet the last two years has OPS+’d 108 and 79.  He’s a great defender in CF (10.3 and 11.0 UZR in 2008/2009), and is likely to get better, as he is still relatively new to the outfield.  At the very least, with his age and lack of experience, he shouldn’t be expected to get worse.  Which BJ Upton shows up this year could make or break the Rays.  In RF is Matt Joyce, who looked solid in 2008 in Detroit, yet didn’t do much for Tampa Bay in 2009 after coming over in a trade for Edwin Jackson. Best case scenario he’s a slight above average hitter for the Rays, worst case scenario he’s not a starter by the end of year.  Either way, the Rays season won’t hinge on Joyce.

Infield: The Rays have a strong infield that is potentially great, but that’s assuming no regression from Ben Zobrist at 2B and Jason Bartlett at SS.  That’s a big assumption.  Prior to 2009, Bartlett had over 1500 AB’s in the majors with an 86 OPS+ before breaking out last year with a .320/.389/.490 129 OPS+ line.  Gee, what’s the outlier?  Unless he’s been sharing David Ortiz’ Wheaties, Bartlett is due for regression.  That being said, as long as he’s still providing very strong defense at SS (though 2009 wasn’t great) and an OPS+ around 95, he’s a valuable player.  Like Bartlett, Zobrist is due for a regression in 2010, though probably not as severe.  2009 was Zobrist’s first full season, and it was beastly, hitting .297/.405/.543 with a 146 OPS+ and playing all over the diamond.  He was a strong hitter in 2008 in a part time role (120 OPS+) and in the minors (.888 OPS).  He won’t be as good in 2010, but at 2B, he will be a very strong player.  Carlos Pena at 1B is what he is. Expect a lot of strikeouts, a low average, and a lot of home runs.  While his breakout 2007 was likely the best we’ll ever see from him, he’s probably settled in as a 35 HR guy with a 125-135 OPS+ and strong defense at 1B.  At 3B is the prime jewel of the Rays, Evan Longoria.  Longoria has been in the league for 2 years, and has been great.  At 24 years old on Opening Day, you can only expect him to get better.  Expect to see Longoria in the top 10 of the MVP voting for years to come.

Catcher: Dioner Navarro is expected to be the Rays starting catcher, but with the off season pickup of Kelly Shoppach, Navarro will be on a short leash.  After a breakout 2008 (100 OPS+), Navarro fell back to Earth and beyond in 2009 with a .218/.261/.322 52 OPS+ line.  If he doesn’t hit early, I full expect Shoppach to become the #1 catcher.  Shoppach had his own breakout in 2008 with 21 HR’s and a 128 OPS+, and while he also regressed in 2009 it wasn’t nearly to Navarro’s level.  Despite a similar .214 batting average, Shoppach was able to get on base (.335) and slug (.399) at much higher levels than Navarro, resulting in a 98 OPS+, more than adequate for a catcher.  By October, I expect Shoppach to have the brunt of games caught for the 2010 Rays.

DH: Pat Burrell, by being a #1 overall pick and playing in Philadelphia, has probably been underrated throughout his career, but he was terrible in 2009 for the Rays.  Was that the outlier for him, or just the beginning of the end?  In the previous 4 years he had OPS+’d 126 but was a ghastly for a DH 78 last year.  If he can bounce back into the 115 range he’ll keep the job, but if he struggles early, he could find himself as the right handed bat in a platoon with Hank Blalock, or gone altogether.

Starting Rotation: The Rays go 5 deep with good young arms.  David Price, in my opinion, is the only one I can see being a true top of the rotation ace, but they sure don’t have any automatic losses in the rotation. Expect struggles from Wade Davis in his first full season, especially in the AL East, and Niemann and Price will struggle from time to time as well.  Matt Garza and James Shields are solid pitchers probably best slotted as #3 guys in a rotation, not #1 and #2.  Price may be good enough to slide them down by himself.

Relief Pitching: The Rays finally have a closer after picking up Rafael Soriano in the offseason.  With Balfour, Howell, Wheeler, Sonnanstine and others, the Rays figure to have a decent bullpen this year that can only be helped by not playing Closer Roulette.

Final Outlook: If Zobrist and Bartlett can replicate 2009 in conjunction with an Upton breakout, the Rays certainly have a chance to be a thorn in the Yankees and Red Sox sides.  If not, Crawford and Pena could be shopped at the deadline to see if they can be had for more than the picks they would gain when they leave as free agents.  I’m leaning towards the latter, both the Yankees and Red Sox have at least held steady from 2009, and I think they’ve both improved.  Upton might just need a change of scenery, and I can’t see the middle infield as productive as last year.  I expect a 3^rd place finish and the end of the current era of Rays baseball as we know it.