Like deja vu all over again

Once again I will pull out the prediction hat and tell you what’s going to happen this year.  Ok, I’ll tell you what I think is going to happen this year.  Previously I gave you my awards predictions here, and just so they aren’t spared embarrassment, make sure to check out JMK’s predictions and Jose’s as well.  And no, I won’t be pulling a Jon Heyman and listing the Yankees and Red Sox as my surprise teams of the year (he didn’t quite pick them, but close enough).  Without further adeiu………

Divisional Round:
Yankees def. A’s (3-1)
Tigers def. Red Sox (3-2)

Phillies def. Dodgers (3-0)
Cardinals def. Rockies (3-2)

Championship Round:
Yankees def. Tigers (4-2)
Phillies def. Cardinals (4-3)

World Series:
Yankees def. Phillies (4-2)

Workers carry the Mo Rivera Award.

So after Steve and James took their shots at looking into the magic crystal ball that is award predictions, I figured I would give it a go as well. I took a stab at a few of popular awards as well as one that we need to start spreading as soon as possible. And now for the predictions.

American League

MVP: Miguel Cabrera. Miggy is going to be 27 years old this season and has already established himself as a prolific hitter with 35 HR power. He came in fourth in MVP voting last year as he settled into his second season in Detroit. He may have lost some value by moving to 1B, but I fully expect that his peak starts to show itself this year.

Cy Young: Felix Hernandez. King Felix had excellent peripherals last year and managed to finish second in Cy Young voting. He had a 3.09 FIP last year and I expect him to be right around that again this year. With possibly the best defense in the AL behind him, I expect him to have a sub-3.00 ERA and reach the 200 K level.

ROY: Brian Matusz. He is left-handed? Check. Throws mid-90′s? Check. Obliterated the minors? Check. Matusz had 44.2 IP last year, just enough to keep him under the maximum to be a ROY candidate. I believe that his experience last year in the majors will only aid in his ability to show his talent level this year. The kid is going to be more than a thrower, he is a 4-pitch pitcher.

Mo Rivera Award: Joakim Soria. His H/9 took a jump last year, but his other peripherals were better than years before. I could easily see his WHIP returning back to around 1.00, maybe below, while maintaining a 10.0 K/9. You’ve never heard of this award before? Trust me, it exists.

National League

MVP: Albert Pujols. He puts up ridiculous numbers that make all the voters swoon. He has finished in the top three in MVP voting seven times during his nine year career. He has won three times. To say he is a good choice isn’t exactly rocket science. Even with Ryan Howard, Hanley Ramirez out there who can put up gaudy numbers, this is his award to lose.

Cy Young: Tim Lincecum. Even with only 15 wins last year the writers selected him as the best. Chris Carpenter had a freak year with 184 ERA+ and will almost certainly show some regression. Tim Lincecum is “The Freak” and will continue to show his ridiculous strikeout totals while logging the innings.

ROY: Jason Heyward. Did you expect anyone else here? He is the clear favorite and frankly I don’t think it is too particular close. Watch him hit 25 HR this year and the writers go gaga.(Rightfully so)

Mo Rivera Award: Jonathon Broxton. He can hit 100 mph on the radar gun. 13.50 K/9 in 76.0 IP last year. He tossed a 1.97 FIP and 2.61 ERA. His lower BABIP could indicate regression though. One major risk with him is that he breaks down if Joe throws him out there too often. Chances are though if he is healthy he will be the best reliever in the National League. Maybe even all of baseball.

Do you agree/disagree with these predictions? What are your predictions for the above awards? What is the meaning of life? Let me know your predictions so you can gloat when one of your wild card crazy predictions pans out.

Here are my 2010 MLB award predictions. For my sleepers I went with people who have never finished in the top 20* for the award before.  If I am dead wrong, I will either pull a Jeff Pearlman by going back and changing all of my predictions, or an Ian O’Connor and just erase this post entirely.  That’s how the pros do it, that’s how I’ll do it.

*there is one pick who doesn’t meet this criteria, sue me.

American League

MVP- Alex Rodriguez. He already has 3, and likely has never come into a season with so little pressure. Last year he got the playoff and World Series monkey off his back, as well as the steroid revelation that he no longer needs to worry about. He’s healthy, and will be hitting 4th in a devastating lineup with 3 great hitters in front of him.

Sleeper- Matt Wieters. Not to go all PETCOA on you, but I struggled finding an AL MVP sleeper who hadn’t been in the top 20 before. As a catcher with a good defensive reputation, Wieters, if he breaks out offensively could have an MVP or two in his future. Wieters struggled (relative to expectations) early, but certainly finished the season strong, hitting .301/.351/.415 in the second half. In September, the month in which Wieters played his most games, he hit .333/.395/.486 with 4 HR and 17 RBI. Was that him growing, or just beating up on September callups? I’m not sure, but if he can sustain his .301 2nd half average and see an expected bump in OBP and SLG, he could land in the top 10 with a full season of at bats.

CY Young- King Felix(barley beating out SP Kyle Farnsworth). Without much competition, Felix has essentially been the staff ace since his first full year in the bigs at the age of 20. Look at the other guys he’s pitched with, it’s a brutal list of have been’s and never will be’s. That all changes this year. While Felix will get the ball on Opening Day, he has true competition to be the ace of the staff in Cliff Lee, and I think that will push Felix. He did finish 2nd last year, only behind an off the charts season from Zack Grienke, I think Felix will improve on last year and pick up his first CY. With stellar defense behind him, Lee pushing him, and expected (by me) regression from Grienke, Felix will be getting that trophy this year.

Sleeper- Jon Lester.  Lester surprisingly hasn’t gotten a vote the last two years.  Lester’s had a breakout season in 2008, and on the surface put a up very similar 2009.  His record, ERA and ERA+ were all similar.  Dig a little deeper and you’ll see a different story.  Lester saw a massive jump in K/9 from 6.5 to 10.0.  While his BB/9 stayed the same, his K/BB obviously increased from 2.3 to 3.5  He basically recorded an extra 2.4 outs, per start, all by himself.  So for almost an inning per game, he took his teams (poor) defense out of the equation.  Of course in 2010 Lester will have a much improved defense behind him, which will only help.  It will obviously lead to more outs, less hits and runs, but also more innings as he will likely become more efficient with his pitches simply by having a better defense around him.  More innings per start on a good team can only lead to more BBWAA approved wins.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see him push for 20 this year.  Getting back to his 2009, which was seemingly a repeat of 2008, a little more digging at the numbers show a much improved pitcher.  Lester got off to a terrible, and I mean terrible, start.  Thru May 26^th he was 3-5 with a 6.07 ERA.  From that point on though, he pitched just about as well as anyone else in the league.  Over the next 22 starts, he went 12-3 with a 2.31 ERA, 163 k’s in 144 innings, a 1.08 WHIP, 3.8 K/BB ratio and only gave up 9 HR’s.  That’s domination Holmes.  Even if he could have cut his early season slump to just one month, he may have been 3^rd in the race behind Grienke and Felix.  As much as it pains me as a Yankees fan, look out for Lester this year.

Originally my (through rose colored glasses) sleeper pick was Joba.  I felt he had an age 24 breakout season coming, just like Lester did. While they got their through different paths, Lester and now Joba finally had the training wheels taken off for their 24 year old season. Through their first 30 or so starts, Joba and Lester were very similar pitchers. Once 24, and with no restrictions, Lester broke out in a big way. There will be no more looking over his shoulder for Joba, nor watching pitch and innings counts. I think he was trying to be too perfect last year, and it just led to his wildness. When you starting aiming the ball, the last place it goes is where you want it to. The epitome of this for Joba was his May 5th start against the Sox. After 5 batters the Sox were up 4-0 with a guy on first. It was brutal. He got out of the 1st at 4-0, and then came out as a new pitcher. He seemed to be throwing at 85% to preserve innings and pitches, and he got beat. From the 2nd inning on, he just said screw it, you can’t beat my best stuff. The rest of Joba’s night went, K, K, F9, 1B, K, K, 5-3, K, K, BB, K, K, K, BB, HBP, K, K, K. It was ridiculous. How can a guy look so bad in the 1st, and so great after? He just hauled back and pitched, and I think that’s what we’ll see from Joba this year. No more Torre Rules, just Joba pitching, and being treated like he’s any other starter.  Obviously with news he has been banished to the bullpen, this is all for naught, but I truly feel he was ready to break out.

Rookie of the Year- Neftali Feliz. As a baseball fan, I’d like to see Feliz in the rotation, but either way I think he’ll put up numbers to warrant ROY consideration. In the 2000’s 3 relievers won ROY in the AL, and if Feliz, even in the pen, puts up numbers similar to his brief appearance last year, he’ll win. It was a small sample size of 31 innings, but the thing that jumps out at me the most was his low 2.3 BB/9 rate. Even great control guys like Maddux, Mo and Nathan struggled with walks when young. If Feliz can keep his BB/9 below 3.0, everything else should fall in line. That’s certainly no sure thing though, as his minor league BB/9 was 3.9, though did improve with age. Along with great numbers, his stuff is electric and he is exciting to watch, which of course the voters will love.

Sleeper-Kila Ka’aihue. He’s a sleeper because he plays for the Royals and they likely won’t be smart enough to give him 400-500 AB’s that they should have given him by now. Ka’aihue absolutely mashed in 2008, hitting .314/.463/.624 in 91 games at AA and .316/.439/.640 in 33 games at AAA, while combining for 37 HR’s and 100 RBI. This of course didn’t get him a shot, as the Royals thought giving Mike Jacobs and his 83 OPS+ over 400 AB’s in 2009. Ka’aihue, already 25, played a full season in AAA and while he regressed from his SSS in 2008, had a strong season with a .252/.392/.433 line. Look again at that OBP, he 102 walks to 85 K’s. Isn’t this exactly what the Royals need, someone who can get on base? Why yes of course it is, which is why I expect Ka’aihue to not get much of a shot, the Royals simply do not like players who have a “not making outs” skill.

National League

MVP- Albert Pujols. At this point the award is his to lose. He’s won 3, finished 2nd twice to Barry Bonds who was putting up all time great seasons, and finished 2nd to Ryan Howard, who he clearly should have beaten. He’s been in the league 9 years and finished worse than 4th once. They ought to name the award after him. Even if Hanley Ramirez puts up 90% of Pujols’ offensive numbers and plays stellar D, the BBWAA won’t look at the positional scarcity and will vote for the guy with the biggest raw numbers. Pujols is simply that guy.

Sleeper- Justin Upton. He might still be a year away from being mentioned with the best in baseball, but I think he’ll get there sooner. He finished 25th last year, and I wouldn’t be surprised with a top 5 finish this year, as long as the Diamondbacks are competitive.

CY Young- Roy Halladay. The chic pick, but I don’t see how he can’t be the favorite. He’s going from a bad AL East team, meaning he had to face three of the top five teams in baseball regularly, and was still dominant, to the much weaker NL. While he will be pitching in a hitters park, he’ll also have the best hitting team in the NL behind him, and again, not nearly the competition. Last year he made 15 starts against the Yankees, Sox, and Rays, going 6-7. Against the rest of baseball he was 11-3. With a strong team behind him in a weaker league, the only thing that can keep him from 20+ wins (and the voters love those) would be a shaky bullpen. Of course if the bullpen falters, Halladay will just finish the game himself, which he does like no other pitcher in baseball today.

Sleeper- Clayton Kershaw. As frustrating as Kershaw’s walk totals were last year, he still finished 13th in the league in WHIP, due to a league leading H/9 total. If he cuts back on the walks, he’ll bust out in a big way. He was just 8-8 last year, but had a 141 ERA+, 9.7 K/9, 0.4 HR/9 and a 2.03 K/BB. Simply put, batters just don’t hit him. Cutting back on the walks, as well as being a year older, will allow him to get deeper in games this year and double his win total, at least. He had 8 games last year where he went at least 6 innings and gave up 2 runs or fewer that he didn’t get a decision in. My one minor concern is the .276 BABIP last year, which could be a sign that he was rather lucky. Either way, I’m thinking he’ll have a big time bust out this year.

Rookie of the Year- Jason Heyward. He may not start the year in the majors, but he doesn’t have much left to accomplish down on the farm. I don’t expect an average much north of .270 and his OBP will obviously slip as a 20 year old in the majors seeing the best pitching of his life, but I think the power will be there. With 500 ab’s I would expect about 25 hr’s, which I think would get him the honor. Unless someone comes out of nowhere and has a solid season like Chris Coghlan last year, if Heyward gets 100+ games, the award is his to lose.

Sleeper- Edinson Volquez. Who else? One of these years he’s finally going to win it.