My predictions are historically awful. Recent examples include thinking assuming people would be super calm on health care being passed; dismissing the idea that Google had potential when their stock debuted; and finally, saying the Nets would make the playoffs in 2010.

Most of Steve’s picks actually make sense on paper. I know Steve did that whole “I’m going to pick guys that weren’t in the Top 20 of any MVP voting mah mah look how inventive I am” thing. Fuck that. I cower from real challenges. I’m not going to sit here and do untold amounts of research into the possibility of  Joey Votto or Brett Anderson winning some kind of award. You think I have time for that? (I do, actually.)

Besides, I don’t use paper; I operate on gut and the mediots’ bold, insubstantial ramblings when I project award ballots during Spring Training. So, without further ado, here are my awards predictions.

AL MVP: Joe Mauer

Sure, it’s not very bold picking the reigning MVP. I wear khakis–this should have been expected. But the dude can straight-up hit, and due to positional value, will be likely be among the top three hitters in the league while providing very good defense at one of the top three defensive positions. A catcher with an OPS of 1.031 should be a near-lock for the MVP even if every ball thrown by his pitcher ends in a Pass Ball (a bit hyperbolic, but you get the point).

The only hesitation I’d have is if his power numbers are unsustainable, and they may be. Still, voters love that he re-signed with Minneapolis-St. North Pole, he’s a catcher and he might hit for an absurdly high average. That new ballpark, when de-thawed, will feature least amount of foul territory in the league and play well to left handers. If the power numbers are real, he might be even better than last year.

Sleeper Pick: Ben Zobrist

Zobrist was an absolute revelation last year. His position is a bit fluid (he’ll play some combination of 2B, RF and possibly fill in at SS or CF if needed), but he can provide plus-defense at most of them and his versatility gives tremendous flexibility to the Rays organization. He’d always been a guy with tremendous tools that struggled in limited action until last season, but if you believe the bat is there (and could be even better), he could lead the AL in WAR in 2010. Seriously.

A late bloomer maybe, but I think Ben Zobrist is the real deal. Frankly, he was robbed by coming in 8th in the MVP voting when objectively, he was a top-3 player. Absolutely no way he should have been behind Jeter, Bay, Youkilis or Morales. You can certainly make the argument that a .948 OPS at 2B with plus-defense is far more worthy of an MVP than a .942 OPS and poor defense at 1B (Miguel Cabrera) or a .948 OPS with excellent defense at 1B (Teixiera). He also has the power of Jesus on his side. That can never be underestimated.

NL MVP: Chase Utley

Clearly there’s no one in Pujols’s league offensively. He’s like the anti-Yuniesky Betancourt. Just straight-up Bonds-ian. But there’s only so much Pujols can contribute defensively as a 1b (albeit, a good one). Somehow Chase Utley remains the most under-appreciated known superstar in The Show. He plays great defense at an up-the-middle position while regularly posting OPS numbers in the 900s. He’s criminally underrated. He’s been the best player on that team for a long time even though his 2009 line of .282/.397/.508 doesn’t look that gaudy. It’s too bad he doesn’t get the pub Howard and Rollins (!) grab. While he won’t be the best player on his team any longer with Halladay in tow, he’s the best player to unseat Prince Albert from his perch as the MVP. His slugging numbers shouls improve, and don’t look now, but he stole 23 bases too.

Sleeper: Troy Tulowitzki

Hard to call him a sleeper but he’s also flying low on the radar despite putting up a line of .297/.377/.552 with Gold Glove defense. Sure, it’s a bit inflated due to playing up at K2 altitudes but he’s arguably one of the top players in the NL. Outside of Hanley (who’d be higher on the list if he didn’t play on a loser like the Marlins—bbwa voters are stupid), you won’t find numbers like that from a SS. This prediction is a bit wacky since he’ll never have the raw numbers to overshadow a Braun, Fielder, Howard, Adrian Gonzalez. Unfortunately, those guys would be far more likely to grab the award.

AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander

Yes, Greinke had better numbers than Verlander. But don’t be mistaken—Verlander had an excellent season. His K/9 was 10.4, his FIP was 2.80 even though his BABip was the highest in his career. His K-rate keeps climbing while his walks are dropping. Drop his BABip 20 points (close to his average range) and add that to his continued progress in control and power, and you’re talking about a season that could easily rival the best of Felix or Greinke. If he can limit the long ball by a bit, I think you’re talking about a possible Cy Young winner. Still, you can’t go wrong with any of the three (apologies to Sabathia). Greinke’s season in particular was unbelievable. No, I mean it that way. I haven’t seen that amazing since vintage Pedro, and he had one of the best seasons in history. A repeat, though? Even the best pitchers ever would be hard-pressed to put up a year like that. I think  he’s due for some regression. Plus, I thought it would be bland to choose Greninke as the uber-popular choice. Operating from a standpoint of semi-irrationality may work in my favor. Of course, I’m an idiot, so probably not.

Sleeper: David Price

David Price’s 2009 season should have been expected. His “stuff” is as good as almost anyone’s and he looked like a Felix-like guy that could just emerge and dominate from the start. He didn’t. But he still can. His troubles last year were pretty simple–David Price’s slider was dreadful last year. Like, beyond dreadful. It rated a -8.1. That’s like T-ball bad. Anyway, his slider was considered by many to be just filthy.  If he can get that going again, along with his decent change and excellent fastball, which rated out as a +8.4, he undoubtedly could put it all together and contend for a Cy Young. Yes, he’ll need to keep the ball in the yard a bit better, limit the contact (which should happen if he can find his slider grip), and not get into so many hitter’s counts early. That’s part of growing up. He appeared to be overwhelmed at times and became fairly predictable in his approach. BUT HE’S 24! It’s the same reason I have confidence Joba, Hughes, Bucholz will mature and be successful MLB starting pitchers. People need to be patient; grapes need time to grow and be processed into fine wine. This isn’t Purple Drank. I think Price finds his slider and unleashes hell on AL hitters in 2010.

NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay

Again, trendy pick. How do you bet against arguably the best pitcher of the last ten years in the AL going to the inferior NL, aided by a lineup that looks like an AL East team? Lots of wins, lots of gaudy stats. Even the park there won’t stop Halladay. He looks like the favorite. And his powerful beard will only increase his prodigious talent.

Sleeper: Dan Haren

Dan Haren’s 2009 was largely hidden behind the beard and desert landscape. He had a career high in Ks and a career low in walks. He threw almost 230 innings with WHIP of 1.00, an ERA under 3.15 and an FIP of 3.23. The problem? Well, his BAbip was pretty low compared to his career totals (.280 in 2009, close to 20 points his career average), he pitched significantly better at home than he did away, and he wore down later in the year, supposedly due to a hip injury. If 100% healthy, Dan Haren is up there in the Halladay, Lincecum, Carpenter and Wainwright crowd.

**Also, one other super-duper sleeper is none other than…Homer Bailey! He’s the forgotten man in Cincinnati, especially since Chaphombre is in tow and Volquez will be back from injury. Most seem to forget that Bailey was once up there in talks as being the best pitching prospect in baseball, back in 2007. He’s struggled in the Big Leagues thus far, occasionally showing flashes of being an ace, but mostly walking too many guys and watching the ball sail far, far behind him. He will break out this year.

AL ROY: Desmond Jennings

Right now, the Rays have Crawford in LF, Upton in CF and Zobrist/Joyce/some guy in RF. At the very least, Jennings is damn close to being ready. He’ll at least be able to provide them better production than what they had out of RF last year and with better defense and better base running. Chances are he’ll hit better, too. Finally, if Crawford is traded, he’s virtually guaranteed a spot in LF and Joyce likely hangs out in RF. This all depends on how quickly he’ll be called up. I think he overtakes Joyce in RF and Zobrist returns to 2B fairly early on.

Sleeper: Chris Carter

Carter has the potential to hit 40 home runs and provide the power the A’s desperately need. He may even be able to (poorly) play the OF in that cavernous, horrid park in Oakland. Baseball voters love home runs.

NL ROY: Jason Heyward

It’s a tough call between Heyward and Strasburg. The hitter is usually the safer pick and it’s more likely the Nats will give Strasburg a bit of AAA seasoning and delay his FA clock a bit. He’ll probably be up in mid-May. Heyward stands an excellent chance to make the club out of Spring Training and rivals Jesus Montero as the best offensive player in the minors. What separates him is that he’s athletic, can play defense and might have better plate discipline. Because of this, and due to Stras’s likely delay and the higher likelihood of initial struggles, Heyward’s the better choice.

Sleeper: Pedro Alvarez

It’s the freakin’ Pirates. Alvarez can rake and well…it’s the Pirates. Who’s blocking him, Andy LaRoche? Pirate fans can at least see McCutchen, Alvarez, Morgan and Jeff Clement give them some hope for the future. Alvarez should hit; he might put up a line of .275/.370/.550. Hopefully his glove keeps up (as it has so far this Spring).

You are now significantly dumber having read all of that. You’re welcome.

Here are my 2010 MLB award predictions. For my sleepers I went with people who have never finished in the top 20* for the award before.  If I am dead wrong, I will either pull a Jeff Pearlman by going back and changing all of my predictions, or an Ian O’Connor and just erase this post entirely.  That’s how the pros do it, that’s how I’ll do it.

*there is one pick who doesn’t meet this criteria, sue me.

American League

MVP- Alex Rodriguez. He already has 3, and likely has never come into a season with so little pressure. Last year he got the playoff and World Series monkey off his back, as well as the steroid revelation that he no longer needs to worry about. He’s healthy, and will be hitting 4th in a devastating lineup with 3 great hitters in front of him.

Sleeper- Matt Wieters. Not to go all PETCOA on you, but I struggled finding an AL MVP sleeper who hadn’t been in the top 20 before. As a catcher with a good defensive reputation, Wieters, if he breaks out offensively could have an MVP or two in his future. Wieters struggled (relative to expectations) early, but certainly finished the season strong, hitting .301/.351/.415 in the second half. In September, the month in which Wieters played his most games, he hit .333/.395/.486 with 4 HR and 17 RBI. Was that him growing, or just beating up on September callups? I’m not sure, but if he can sustain his .301 2nd half average and see an expected bump in OBP and SLG, he could land in the top 10 with a full season of at bats.

CY Young- King Felix(barley beating out SP Kyle Farnsworth). Without much competition, Felix has essentially been the staff ace since his first full year in the bigs at the age of 20. Look at the other guys he’s pitched with, it’s a brutal list of have been’s and never will be’s. That all changes this year. While Felix will get the ball on Opening Day, he has true competition to be the ace of the staff in Cliff Lee, and I think that will push Felix. He did finish 2nd last year, only behind an off the charts season from Zack Grienke, I think Felix will improve on last year and pick up his first CY. With stellar defense behind him, Lee pushing him, and expected (by me) regression from Grienke, Felix will be getting that trophy this year.

Sleeper- Jon Lester.  Lester surprisingly hasn’t gotten a vote the last two years.  Lester’s had a breakout season in 2008, and on the surface put a up very similar 2009.  His record, ERA and ERA+ were all similar.  Dig a little deeper and you’ll see a different story.  Lester saw a massive jump in K/9 from 6.5 to 10.0.  While his BB/9 stayed the same, his K/BB obviously increased from 2.3 to 3.5  He basically recorded an extra 2.4 outs, per start, all by himself.  So for almost an inning per game, he took his teams (poor) defense out of the equation.  Of course in 2010 Lester will have a much improved defense behind him, which will only help.  It will obviously lead to more outs, less hits and runs, but also more innings as he will likely become more efficient with his pitches simply by having a better defense around him.  More innings per start on a good team can only lead to more BBWAA approved wins.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see him push for 20 this year.  Getting back to his 2009, which was seemingly a repeat of 2008, a little more digging at the numbers show a much improved pitcher.  Lester got off to a terrible, and I mean terrible, start.  Thru May 26^th he was 3-5 with a 6.07 ERA.  From that point on though, he pitched just about as well as anyone else in the league.  Over the next 22 starts, he went 12-3 with a 2.31 ERA, 163 k’s in 144 innings, a 1.08 WHIP, 3.8 K/BB ratio and only gave up 9 HR’s.  That’s domination Holmes.  Even if he could have cut his early season slump to just one month, he may have been 3^rd in the race behind Grienke and Felix.  As much as it pains me as a Yankees fan, look out for Lester this year.

Originally my (through rose colored glasses) sleeper pick was Joba.  I felt he had an age 24 breakout season coming, just like Lester did. While they got their through different paths, Lester and now Joba finally had the training wheels taken off for their 24 year old season. Through their first 30 or so starts, Joba and Lester were very similar pitchers. Once 24, and with no restrictions, Lester broke out in a big way. There will be no more looking over his shoulder for Joba, nor watching pitch and innings counts. I think he was trying to be too perfect last year, and it just led to his wildness. When you starting aiming the ball, the last place it goes is where you want it to. The epitome of this for Joba was his May 5th start against the Sox. After 5 batters the Sox were up 4-0 with a guy on first. It was brutal. He got out of the 1st at 4-0, and then came out as a new pitcher. He seemed to be throwing at 85% to preserve innings and pitches, and he got beat. From the 2nd inning on, he just said screw it, you can’t beat my best stuff. The rest of Joba’s night went, K, K, F9, 1B, K, K, 5-3, K, K, BB, K, K, K, BB, HBP, K, K, K. It was ridiculous. How can a guy look so bad in the 1st, and so great after? He just hauled back and pitched, and I think that’s what we’ll see from Joba this year. No more Torre Rules, just Joba pitching, and being treated like he’s any other starter.  Obviously with news he has been banished to the bullpen, this is all for naught, but I truly feel he was ready to break out.

Rookie of the Year- Neftali Feliz. As a baseball fan, I’d like to see Feliz in the rotation, but either way I think he’ll put up numbers to warrant ROY consideration. In the 2000’s 3 relievers won ROY in the AL, and if Feliz, even in the pen, puts up numbers similar to his brief appearance last year, he’ll win. It was a small sample size of 31 innings, but the thing that jumps out at me the most was his low 2.3 BB/9 rate. Even great control guys like Maddux, Mo and Nathan struggled with walks when young. If Feliz can keep his BB/9 below 3.0, everything else should fall in line. That’s certainly no sure thing though, as his minor league BB/9 was 3.9, though did improve with age. Along with great numbers, his stuff is electric and he is exciting to watch, which of course the voters will love.

Sleeper-Kila Ka’aihue. He’s a sleeper because he plays for the Royals and they likely won’t be smart enough to give him 400-500 AB’s that they should have given him by now. Ka’aihue absolutely mashed in 2008, hitting .314/.463/.624 in 91 games at AA and .316/.439/.640 in 33 games at AAA, while combining for 37 HR’s and 100 RBI. This of course didn’t get him a shot, as the Royals thought giving Mike Jacobs and his 83 OPS+ over 400 AB’s in 2009. Ka’aihue, already 25, played a full season in AAA and while he regressed from his SSS in 2008, had a strong season with a .252/.392/.433 line. Look again at that OBP, he 102 walks to 85 K’s. Isn’t this exactly what the Royals need, someone who can get on base? Why yes of course it is, which is why I expect Ka’aihue to not get much of a shot, the Royals simply do not like players who have a “not making outs” skill.

National League

MVP- Albert Pujols. At this point the award is his to lose. He’s won 3, finished 2nd twice to Barry Bonds who was putting up all time great seasons, and finished 2nd to Ryan Howard, who he clearly should have beaten. He’s been in the league 9 years and finished worse than 4th once. They ought to name the award after him. Even if Hanley Ramirez puts up 90% of Pujols’ offensive numbers and plays stellar D, the BBWAA won’t look at the positional scarcity and will vote for the guy with the biggest raw numbers. Pujols is simply that guy.

Sleeper- Justin Upton. He might still be a year away from being mentioned with the best in baseball, but I think he’ll get there sooner. He finished 25th last year, and I wouldn’t be surprised with a top 5 finish this year, as long as the Diamondbacks are competitive.

CY Young- Roy Halladay. The chic pick, but I don’t see how he can’t be the favorite. He’s going from a bad AL East team, meaning he had to face three of the top five teams in baseball regularly, and was still dominant, to the much weaker NL. While he will be pitching in a hitters park, he’ll also have the best hitting team in the NL behind him, and again, not nearly the competition. Last year he made 15 starts against the Yankees, Sox, and Rays, going 6-7. Against the rest of baseball he was 11-3. With a strong team behind him in a weaker league, the only thing that can keep him from 20+ wins (and the voters love those) would be a shaky bullpen. Of course if the bullpen falters, Halladay will just finish the game himself, which he does like no other pitcher in baseball today.

Sleeper- Clayton Kershaw. As frustrating as Kershaw’s walk totals were last year, he still finished 13th in the league in WHIP, due to a league leading H/9 total. If he cuts back on the walks, he’ll bust out in a big way. He was just 8-8 last year, but had a 141 ERA+, 9.7 K/9, 0.4 HR/9 and a 2.03 K/BB. Simply put, batters just don’t hit him. Cutting back on the walks, as well as being a year older, will allow him to get deeper in games this year and double his win total, at least. He had 8 games last year where he went at least 6 innings and gave up 2 runs or fewer that he didn’t get a decision in. My one minor concern is the .276 BABIP last year, which could be a sign that he was rather lucky. Either way, I’m thinking he’ll have a big time bust out this year.

Rookie of the Year- Jason Heyward. He may not start the year in the majors, but he doesn’t have much left to accomplish down on the farm. I don’t expect an average much north of .270 and his OBP will obviously slip as a 20 year old in the majors seeing the best pitching of his life, but I think the power will be there. With 500 ab’s I would expect about 25 hr’s, which I think would get him the honor. Unless someone comes out of nowhere and has a solid season like Chris Coghlan last year, if Heyward gets 100+ games, the award is his to lose.

Sleeper- Edinson Volquez. Who else? One of these years he’s finally going to win it.