Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage and Bruce Sutter are in the Hall of Fame.  David Cone, Chuck Finley and Orel Hershiser aren’t, nor will they get close.  Isn’t there something wrong with this?  I have zero doubt that if Cone, Finley or Hershisher were moved to the closers role at a young age, they would have dominated.  Had Fingers, Gossage or Sutter been good enough to be starters, they would have either stuck in the rotation or been promoted to the rotation.  Why should lesser pitchers be honored because of the role they were put in?  None of the above closers was nearly as valuable in their careers as the starters were, yet they are bronzed in Cooperstown, while the others just had nice careers.

By putting closers in the Hall of Fame, you are essentially rewarding mediocrity.  Closers are put in the bullpen because they are not good enough to succeed as a starter, and as we all know, a #3 starter brings more value than the elite closers.  Even GM’s get this, as #3 starters are often paid much more money than elite closers are on the open market.  So why doesn’t this also apply to Hall of Fame voting?  Why are players who were limited enough in their ability that they had to be put in a less valuable role bronzed in Cooperstown? [...]

How many future Hall of Famers are in the major leagues right now? I will go team by team and identify players who have a chance at getting to Cooperstown someday. I will not be using Jim Rice as a benchmark, as listing all players who are more qualified than Jim Rice would use up way too much bandwidth. I also will not be including players with less than 8 full years in the bigs, as they are just too far away. Sure, Hanley Ramirez looks like a future Hall of Famer, but so did Nomar after 4 years in the majors. Too much can happen to really predict guys that young and their Hall chances. I will add my 2 cents on whether I think the player should get in, and the odds that they will. Due to the mediocy of the BBWAA, I will not consider anyone to be a 100% lock, the BBWAA’s track record tells me nothing other than they, as a whole, don’t know what they are doing.  Today I’ll go thru the American League, for the National League click here.

Baltimore

• None.  Though I believe PECOTA has already inducted Matt Wieters.  Miguel Tejada had a great peak, but has fallen quite a bit since testing began and won’t be able to overcome steroids with great career numbers.  Without steroids and with a longer peak, allowing him to compile more career numbers would have given him a strong chance, but as it is, he has to be out.

Boston

• Surprisingly no great candidates
• Josh Beckett simply hasn’t been good enough in the regular season, if he repeats his next 8 years to match his first 8, he’ll have 212 wins, and only one Top 10 finish in the Cy Young voting.  He would have to get much better over the next 8 years, and there’s not much that says he will, as he has been pretty inconsistent, and nagging injury prone throughout his career.
  • Should he get in?  No. Will he get in? <1%
• Victor Martinez is 30 with 111 career HR’s and will likely be a full time 1B shortly.
  • Should he get in?  No. Will he get in? <1%
• Adrian Beltre, if he could stick around and get 3000 hits would be an interesting case.  Thru 11 full seasons he’s been great (offensively) only once, while providing stellar defense.  Because he was in the bigs at 19, he’ll be 31 this year with only 1300 hits to go to 3000.  At 150 hits per year, he’d get to 3000 in under 9 years.  Not likely, but possible nonetheless.  Would that get him in?  It probably would, but I’m assuming he just won’t get there, or even close.  As soon as his defense slips to even league average, he’s not a viable starter, and since his bat won’t play elsewhere, he won’t likely won’t get the AB’s required to compile hits.
  • Should he get in?  No.  Will he get in?  5%
• David Ortiz.  Not even close.

Chicago

• Mark Buerhle.  Has a solid chance to pile up 250+ wins, but simply never great enough for consideration.
  • Should he get in? No.  Will he get in? <5%.  Could pull a Jamie Moyer and approach 300 wins, but I just don’t see that happening.
• Paul Konerko.  Solid 1B but never dominating and won’t compile HOF numbers
  • Should he get in? No.  Will he get in? <1%

• Andruw Jones.  Was well on his way but possibly ate himself out of consideration.  Got to the Majors at 19, was widely considered the best defensive CF since Willie Mays (whether true or not is up to argument).  Thru age 30 he had a .263/.342/.497 line with a 113 OPS+, 368 HR’s and 1117 RBI, to go with all time great defense in CF.  He was on track to get to 500 HR’s by the age of 35 and he would have been a no doubter with 500 HR’s and stellar defense.  In two years (569 PA’s) he’s hit .190/.295/.369, albeit with 20 HR’s.  He still has time to recover offensively and get to 500 HR’s, but the trend is not his friend.  If he’s hitting in the low .200’s with a low OBP, he likely won’t get the AB’s required to get to 500 HR’s
  • Should he get in?  Yes, for some reason I think he’ll get to 500 HR’s.  Will he get in?  50%

Cleveland

• None.  Justin Masterson was once a future Hall of Famer, then the Red Sox traded him, completely derailing his career.  Losing his chance to pitch to Jason Varitek cost him 300 wins and a plaque.

Detroit

• Miguel Cabrera.  He falls under my 8 full seasons requirements with about 6.5 seasons in the bigs. Considering what he’s done in those 6.5 seasons, and considering his age, he makes my cut.  As long as he doesn’t eat or drink himself out of the league, he’s in rather easily.  He’s about to start his 27 year old season and has a .311/.383/.542 line with a 140 OPS+, 209 HR’s and 753 RBI.  Edgar Martinez didn’t really start his career until he was 27, and has a chance at making the Hall as a DH.  While Cabrera might be moved to DH early he literally has 207 more HR’s than Edgar Martinez at the same point in time.
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in?  65%

• Magglio Ordonez.  Good player for a long time, but not close to the Hall.
  • Should he get in?  No.  Will he get in? <1%
• Johnny Damon. If Damon gets to 3000 hits he’s likely in, if he doesn’t, he probably doesn’t spend too much time on the ballot.  Never considered among the elite players in baseball (0 times in Top 10 for MVP and only 2 ASG’s), Damon’s only great compiling stats are hits.  He had good pop for a leadoff hitter, and will end up with over 400 steals, but 3000 hits is the only “magic number” he has a shot at.  I don’t think he gets there.  His defense in LF at this point is terrible, and he hasn’t played 150 games since 2004.  Once the glove becomes such a liability that he gets taken out of the field, does his bat play at DH?  I doubt it.  His home/road splits in 2009 were drastic, and I don’t see him repeating his 2009 overall numbers.  He’ll need about 4 more seasons to get to 3000 hits assuming no dropoff and no serious injuries.  I don’t see him getting enough AB’s to get there.
  • Should he get in?  No.  Will he get in?  <15%

• Phil Coke.  In.  Oh sorry, this isn’t the “Point to the sky to track flyballs” HOF?  Nevermind then.

Kansas City

• None.  Though maybe Kyle Farnsworth’s career will finally take off in the rotation.

Los Angeles

• Torii Hunter.  No thanks, simply not good enough, and not as good as perceived to be.
  • Should he get in?  No.  Will he get in?  <10%
• Bobby Abreu.  A very solid career, but simply not a Hall of Famer.  Was never a dominating player, and not that the voters are right, but his highest finish in an MVP ballot was 12^th, this past year, which happened to be one of the worst years of his solid career.
  • Should he get in?  No.  Will he get in?  <10%

Minnesota

• Jim Thome.  He’ll get in, 564 HR’s and counting, and never linked to steroids, nor suspected of steroid use, simply “country strong” is how the mediots put it.  While only a DH now, he’s primarily played the field in his career, with 1102 games at 1B and 492 at 3B (there’s a scary thought).
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in?  85% (still 5+ years to wait for any steroids stories to come out)

• Joe Mauer. Too early, but certainly on the right track.

New York

• Alex Rodriguez.  Will be hounded by steroids, but can’t be held out.
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in?  95%

• Derek Jeter.  Another no brainer.
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in? 99%

• Mariano Rivera.  Easiest call for a reliever ever.
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in? 99%
• Jorge Posada.  Count me in the Posada for the Hall fan club.  He truly is one of the greatest offensive catchers of all time.  He’s likely been overshadowed in his own era by Mike Piazza, Ivan Rodriguez, and the monster numbers that have been put up in the last 15 years.  Piazza is better than Posada, but how about Pudge?  Certainly not offensively, which likely surprises a lot of people.  Defensively Pudge is better, but he is certainly no Johnny Bench.  It has long been stated that Pudge threw out a ton of runners by calling a ton of fastballs.  Gee, that’s the kind of guy I want behind the plate.  Back to the offense.  Pudge’s career best OPS+ in  a full season (>100 games for a catcher) is 136, Jorge’s is 153. Pudge has no other full seasons over 130, Posada has 4.  Pudge had a 10 year peak of .313/.354/.514 with a 119 OPS+.  Phenomenal numbers for a catcher.  Jorge’s 10 year peak is .283/.386/.492 with a 129 OPS+.  Over a 10 year span, an OPS+ 10 points higher is very significant.  Simply put, when ranking the catchers of the last 20 years, Piazza is the sure #1, but you can certainly make an argument for Jorge at #2.
  • Should he get in? Yes.  Will he get in?  60%

• CC Sabathia.  As much as pitchers are harder to predict, Sabathia is working on a Hall of Fame career.  He got off to an early start, winning 17 games as a 20 year old, he is an absolute horse, starting 30+ games in 8 of his 9 seasons (and 28 in the other), now has a ring, and has quashed any fears that he couldn’t get it done when it counts.  Going forward, his body is both a blessing and a curse.  The man is huge.   Again, he is ridiculously durable, but as he ages, will his body break down from carrying so much weight, and will he gain more?  Though he is massive, he is very athletic, has a smooth consistent delivery. I’m betting that he’ll remain healthy, productive and become a Hall of Famer.  He has 1 Cy Young, 2 other top 5 finishes, 136 wins (vs. 81 losses) with a 121 ERA+, and will be pitching in front of one of the best offenses in baseball for at least the next 2 years, but likely longer.
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in?  70%

• Mark Teixeira.  Teixeira is 29 and about halfway to 500 HR’s.  He’s certainly had the benefit of playing in Texas for 4.5 years, and now gets to call the Bronx his home for 7 more seasons.  He hit 39 HR’s his first year in the Bronx after a slow start (which is normal), and I can easily see him averaging 40 for the next 4 seasons, which would give him at 402 after his age 34 season.  If he gets there, he’ll be very likely to push that to 500.  With 500 HR’s, a reputation for stellar defense, a good guy with the media and in the clubhouse, and perceived as clean, I think Tex gets in.  While 500 HR’s in the steroid era is no longer a sure think induction, the majority of Tex’s career will be played out after the steroid era.
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in?  50%

Oakland

• None.  Once upon a time it appeared as though Eric Chavez was on his way (though 3B is a tough position to crack the Hall), but his career has been thoroughly derailed by injuries.

Seattle

• Ken Griffey Jr. No doubter and of course he was undoubtedly clean during the steroid era (why is there that perception again?
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in?  99%

• Ichiro.  While he won’t likely compile 3000 hits, Ichiro is a lock for his 9 (and counting) years of baseball in the states.  While probably not quite as good as perceived (118 OPS+), he does things that the BBWAA loves like hit for a high average and gets 200+ hits a year.  He also wins the Gold Glove every year, though in Ichiro’s case it’s likely been deserved.  He has also been a global icon, being the first Japanese position player to star in the states.
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in?  99%

Texas

• Vladimir Guerrero.  While it appears as though Vlad’s days as a monster are over, he has put together a great career so far.  He may or may not get to 500 HR’s (93 away) and likely won’t get to 3000 hits (751 away).  Vlad will get in based on his dominance and his rate stats, as well as zero steroid speculation.   Vlad has been a pretty poor fielder per UZR since 2002, but anecdotally his defense will probably be remembered more favorably.  The first year of UZR he rated an 8.9 and had 4.5 seasons before that in which he was widely regarded as good in the OF.  He also had a cannon for an arm, though not necessarily accurate.  Thru 2009 Vlad has a career .321/.386/.568, 145 OPS+ monster line.  Despite being a free swinger he still has been able to get on base at a great clip.  Over a 10 year peak, Vlad hit .327/.394/.586, 151 OPS+, 353 HR’s, 1136 RBI and 165 steals (though 79 CS).  That’s a Hall of Famer
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in?  96%

Tampa Bay

• None.  The perception of Carl Crawford greatly outweighs the truth of Carl Crawford.

Toronto

• None, though Vernon Wells certainly has a plaque in the horrible contracts Hall of Fame.

Who did I miss, who am I dead wrong on?  If you haven’t checked out the NL edition, be sure to check it out here.

How many future Hall of Famer’s are in the major leagues right now.  Team by team I will identify players who have a chance at getting to Cooperstown down the road. I will not be using Jim Rice as a benchmark, as listing all players who are more qualified than Jim Rice would use up way too much bandwidth. I also will not be including players with less than 8 full years in the bigs, as they are just too far away. Sure, Hanley Ramirez looks like a future Hall of Famer, but so did Nomar Garciaparra and Dwight Gooden after 4 years in the majors. Too much can happen to really predict guys that young and their Hall chances. I will add my 2 cents on whether I think the player should get in, and the odds that they will. Due to the mediocy of the BBWAA, I will not consider anyone to be a 100% lock, the BBWAA’s track record tells me nothing other than they, as a whole, don’t know what the hell they are doing. Today I’ll address the National League, check back for the American League tomorrow.

Arizona Diamondbacks

• None. Although Ian Kennedy could have been traded straight up for Johan Santana and Joe Mauer, so he has to have a Hall of Fame pedigree. Justin Upton is way too young, but would appear to be their best candidate.

Atlanta Braves

• Chipper Jones: No brainer.
  • Should he get in? Absolutely. Will he get in?: 99%
• Billy Wagner: Dominating closer throughout his career, but horrible in the postseason, never led the league in saves, would need a ridiculous end of his career to be considered.
  • Should he get in? No. Will he get in?: <5%

Chicago Cubs

• None. Carlos Zambrano, Derek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Alfonso Soriano will all go down as solid players with nice careers, but unless they find the fountain of Papi and put up monster seasons for the next 5 years, they have no shot.

Cincinnati Reds

• None, not even Aroldis Chapman (sorry mr yankee). Scott Rolen appeared to be on his way, but injuries derailed the train. At the end of his 20’s he had a career .286/.378/.520 line with a 131 OPS+, with 226 HR’s and 831 RBI. He did all of that while providing what is considered to be some of the best defense at 3B of all time. By comparison, Brooks Robinson through his 20’s hit .281/.330/.423 with a 109 OPS+, 134 HR’s and 672 RBI. Robinson didn’t get any better in his 30’s, but was able to match his HR total, putting him at 268. If Rolen could have doubled his from 226 to 452, he’d be a no brainer (along with everything else staying in line.)

Colorado Rockies

• Jason Giambi: Not quite there. Offensively he has the numbers, but he will be held out based on 3 things. 1. Steroids. While many users will someday get in, a guy like Giambi, who aside from steroids isn’t an overwhelming yes, steroids will severely hurt his case. 2. He’s spent over 30% of his career at DH, and doesn’t, nor will he have the counting numbers of a Frank Thomas. 3. When he did play the field, he was terrible (I need to find video of his 113 games in the OF and 70 games at 3B)
  • Should he get in? No. Will he get in? <3%

• Todd Helton: While he will be hurt by playing at Coors, I think he will be the first Rockie to get in. He was undoubtedly helped by his home park, but has been a very good hitter on the road as well. Most hitters hit better at home than on the road anyway, but Coors takes that another step further. Still with a .328/.427/.567 line with a 140 OPS+, Helton should get in. Away from home he has hit .295/.395/.489, he hit .305/.398/.465 against LHP, and by all accounts has been a plus glove, albeit at 1B.
  • Should he get in? Yes. Will he get in? 75%

Florida Marlins

• None. Hanley Ramirez has a long way to go, but is off to a great start.

Houston Astros

• Jeff Fulchino, only because when we were both 12 years old he hit a HR off of me that still hasn’t landed.

• Roy Oswalt. Trending in the wrong direction as the last 2 seasons have been the two worst ERA+s and FIP’s of his career, and in 2009 won just 8 games despite making 30 starts. If he can match the first 9 years of his career in the next 9, he’s in, as that would put him at 274 wins with a 135 ERA+. However, with his recent decline and smallish stature, I highly doubt that.
  • Should he get in? Doubtful, but too far away to truly predict. Will he get in? <15%

• Lance Berkman. The Big Puma is working on a Hall of Fame career. Thru age 33 he has a .299/.412/.555 line with a 147 OPS+ (good for 44^th all time).  His lowest career OPS+ is 130.  At 313 career HR (to go with 1041 RBI), he has a shot at 500 career HR’s, he’d have to average 32 HR’s for the next seasons, not a slam dunk, but not impossible. Despite playing in a hitter’s park, he essentially has the same numbers on the road as at home.  Also, while he has settled in as a full time 1B, he does have over 900 games in the OF in his career.  He’ll be helped in the voting by the fact that the voters already like him, as evidenced by 4 Top 5 finishes in the MVP balloting.  He has also been very outspoken against steroids, which still doesn’t tell me he hasn’t used, but the writers will appreciate it.
  • Should he get in?  Yes, unless he falls of a cliff.  Will he get in? 65%

• Carlos Lee.  A very strong hitter who simply hasn’t been good enough to get serious merit.  He’s had a very solid 10 years in the majors, but is terrible defensively, and with his body type is due to regress.  He simply wasn’t great enough during his peak, nor will he stick around long enough to compile Hall of Fame caliber stats.
  • Should he get in?  No.  Will he get in? <3%

LA Dodgers

• Manny Ramirez.  No doubter
  • Should he get in?  Of course.  Will he get in?  90%, he will have to wait for steroid stigma to wear off.

Milwaukee Brewers

• None. Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder too far away.

New York Mets

• Johan Santana.  Got a semi-late start as he wasn’t a full time starter until age 25, so he may be hurt in the long run as far as counting stats go.  His dominance should get him in as long as he stays healthy and puts together a few more great seasons, along with a few more compiling seasons.  In 6 years since he became a starter he has a 2.86 ERA, 154 ERA+, 1.04 WHIP and 2 CY Young awards (could be 3).  He surely was dominant enough during that stretch that as long as he doesn’t suffer a major injury, he should put up the career numbers needed combined with his peak to put him in.
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in? 70%

• Carlos Beltran.  Beltran has been viewed as an underachiever in his career, but rather unfairly.  He simply has been a well above average offensive player while playing stellar defense in CF for 10 year in the bigs.  He has a career .283/.360/.496 119 OPS+ line, with 273 HR’s, 1086 RBI, and286 steals (only caught 38 times).  Yet despite some great numbers, people seem to have expected even more from Beltran.  After serious knee surgery, Beltran’s career is at a crossroads.  Should he come back to even 85% of what he was, I think he’ll get in, though it may take some time.  He is another player that will be appreciated by sabermatricians, but also has 8 100 RBI seasons, which the old curmudgeon’s will love.  If Beltran’s health doesn’t completely desert him (and playing for the Mets that’s a big if), he should end up with 400+ HR’s,  over 300 steals, and a reputation as a stellar defensive player, which should eventually get him in.
  • Should he get in?  If he comes back healthy, yes.  Will he get in?  50%

Philadelphia Phillies

• Roy Halladay.  148 Wins thru age 32 is lower than I’d expect, but he’s shown no signs of slowing down and the recent switch to the NL can only help.  Tack on another 80 wins or so and he’d be at 228 with ridiculous rate stats, 1 Cy Young and 5 top 5 finishes (so far).
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in?  80%

• Ryan Howard and Chase Utley both got off to late starts and haven’t hit my arbitrary 8 year mark yet, so they are still too far away to rate.  Jimmy Rollins simply hasn’t been good enough to consider

Pittsburgh Pirates

• None.  Not even Peter Gammons’ MVP pick Bobby Crosby, nor Jose Tabata, who some Yankees’ fans think is the next Roberto Clemente.

San Diego Padres

• None.  And what do you expect from a team put together by Kevin Towers? (/SBGL’d).  Adrian Gonzalez only has 4 years in the bigs, but get him out of Petco and I think he’d be on his way.

San Francisco Giants

• None.  Tim Lincecum is simply too far away and their veterans are just overpaid and terrible.

St. Louis

• Albert Pujols. Next question.
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in?  99%
• Matt Holliday. Will be hurt that his early monster seasons happened in Coors.  He’s 29 with 152 career HR’s, 2/3 of which came at home.  He would have to be better in St. Louis than he was in Colorado to have a good chance, and I just don’t see that happening.
  • Should he get in? No.  Will he get in?  <5%

Washington Natinals

• Ivan Rodriguez.  Unless he gets caught up in the steroid mess, he’s a lock.
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in?  90% (I’d say 99%, but it’s a matter of when, not if he’s tied to steroids, either that or he has a tape worm that caused him to lose 50 lbs. of muscle once testing began.)

• Adam Dunn.  Dunn’s biggest supporters will also be his biggest detractors, if that makes any sense.  The sabermetric community loves Adam Dunn’s offense, and is viewed as a much better hitter in that context, than the old school side who think he sucks because of his low average.  The sabermetric community also cares about defense, and Dunn is as bad as it gets.  The sooner he gets to the AL, the better.  He has been a fantastic power hitter since he got to the majors, and at age 29 has a .249/.383/.520 line with 316 HR’s.  Though he likely won’t age well, a move to the AL could see him well into the mid 500’s and possibly into the 600’s for career HR’s.  Will his batting average keep him out if he has a .245/.380/.500 line with 550 HR’s?  10 years ago I’d say yes, but 10-15 years into the future I think he has a good shot, offensively.  The voters haven’t loved Dunn so far, only to top 30 MVP finishes (26^th and 28^th), and that won’t likely change while he’s playing.  While turnover in the BBWAA will help him gain support, those same supporters will also knock his defense.  I think he has a better chance than realized, simply because he could end up in the top 10 all time in HR’s, and as yet, untainted.
  • Should he get in?  If he keeps it up and moves to the AL, yes.  Will he get in? I’m bullish at 65%.

Who did I miss, who am I dead wrong on?  Stay tuned for the breakdown of AL teams coming tomorrow.