Shaking Hideki Matui's hand? Hmm, I think I'd rather shake hands with Jorge Posada.

The Angels took two big hits in the offseason, losing ace John Lackey to the Red Sox, and starting 3B and leadoff hitter Chone Figgins to the division rival Mariners.  Their replacements in Joel Pineiro and Brandon Wood have potential, but are big question marks.  The Angels also lost Vladimir Guerrero, who while had a down year last year, really picked it up in the 2^nd half for the Angels.  While they have essentially replaced Vladdy with Hideki Matsui, a bounce back from Vladdy for the Rangers will also hurt the Angels chances in their division.  The Angels have been cruising to the division title the past few years, winning 5 of the past 6 AL West crowns, while winning 89 games the year they didn’t win it.  With the changes they have gone through, their reign may come to an end in 2010.

Outfield: Mike Scoscia has plans to give Hideki Matsui time in the outfield.  Part of me wants to stop and work on a future post, the obituary for Hideki Matsui’s knees.  Matsui’s knees are a ticking time bomb, and he’s a terrible defender.  Any time he spends in the field will hurt the Angels in the short-term and likely long term.  It’s really not if he gets hurt, but when.  The regular LF will be Juan Rivera.  Rivera is a solid hitter (109 OPS+) who surprisingly grades out well with UZR, posting an 11.9 last year in 131 games and a 15.4 in 318 career games.  Still not a truly large enough sample to judge, and I would be stunned to see him put up a similar UZR this year.  Rivera’s 2^nd half struggles last year (.727 OPS down from .879 in 1^st half) and against RHP (.732 OPS vs. 1.023 vs. LHP) are the reasons Matsui will get some time in the field, but it’s simply not worth the risk.  In CF will be Torii Hunter whose defensive reputation is just that now, a reputation.  He actually had a bounce back of sorts last year, but his UZR in his last 4 seasons has been    -10.9, -6.0, -11.5, and 1.4.  I always say Mike Cameron is Torii Hunter without the big smile, but at this point Cameron has certainly passed Hunter as a player.  The good news for Hunter is that he’s coming off the best offensive season of his career, with career highs in AVG, OBP, OPS, and OPS+.  In RF is Bobby Abreu.  Abreu is a still a very solid, patient hitter who grinds out at-bats.  Despite his highest finish ever in an MVP ballot (12^th) in 2009, Abreu had one of the worst seasons of his underrated career.  He still gets on base at a strong clip (.390), but had a career worst .435 slug%. The last 3 years have been the worst 3 of Abreu’s career, so expect further regression.  Defensively Abreu is terrible.  He hasn’t posted a positive UZR since 2003 and in the 6 years since, has had a negative UZR in the double digits four times. He’s there for his bat, and his bat is slipping.

Infield: At 3B will be former prospect Brandon Wood.  Wood, 25, has yet to get a real shot at the big league level, despite crushing AAA pitching for the past 3 years to the tune of a .287/.354/.547 line with 76 HR in 317 games.  Wood finally gets a shot, but with Scoscia favorite Maicer Izturis backing up around the infield, if Wood struggles early, he might lose his chance.  Wood deserves a chance to live up to his billing as a former top-10 prospect in all of baseball.  He might not hit for average, but he has plenty of pop, and in the Angels lineup they could use it.  At SS is Erick Aybar, a very strong defender who had a very strong season with the bat in 2009 (.312/.353/.423 103 OPS+).  If he keeps that up, despite no chance of hitting for power, he’s a potential All-Star.  At 2B is Yankee killer Howie Kendrick (.426/.496/.556 in 29 games against NYY).  Kendrick has a chance to be special, but has yet to settle in at the major league level, primarily due to his inability to stay healthy.  Last year he even managed to get sent to the minors, but dominated once he came back.  Did the light switch finally flick on? From July 4^th (his 1^st game back) through the end of the season Kendrick hit .351/.387/.532.  Wow.  While I don’t expect that for a full season, Kendrick certainly can be better than he has in his young career (100 OPS+).  If he’s healthy, he will play at an All-Star level.  At 1B is one of last years breakout stars, Kendry Morales.  A big prospect who came over from Cuba, Morales was great last year.  Expect more of the same from Morales, who after a solid first half of 2009 (.867 OPS) crushed the ball in the 2^nd half with a .330/.375/.614 line with 19 HR in 70 games.  If he keeps it up, he’s a potential MVP.

Catcher: At catcher for the Angels is the two headed monster of Mike Napoli and Jeff Mathis. Napoli is a very strong hitter (120 OPS+ career), while Mathis has a reputation of a very strong defender.  Mathis better be Varitekian in his ability to call a game (again just something made up to justify Varitek’s existence) because he is as bad a hitter as it gets.  In 861 career PA’s, he has an OPS+ of 56.  Seriously.  Yet somehow Scoscia (a former C) manages to get Mathis into more than half of the games.  As a Yankee fan, I can only hope Mathis continues to get a ton of playing time.  There are plenty of people who think Brett Gardner will hurt the offense, or that the Red Sox don’t have enough offense in 2010.  They need to immediately take a look at how many AB’s Jeff Mathis will get for the Angels and get off the ledge.

DH: DH’ing for the Angels will be the aforementioned Hideki Matsui.  Matsui had a strong 2009 for the Yankees with a 131 OPS+.  He also hit much better on the road than at home, so his resurgent season wasn’t a product of the new Yankee Stadium.  The issue with Matsui is health.  He has a chronic knee condition that needs to be monitored, and he will likely miss games here and there to have the knees drained.  Playing him in the OF is completely counter-intuitive, but the Angels seem set on doing so.  If Matsui can get 500 AB’s, there is no doubt he’ll produce.  Getting those 500 AB’s is the biggest question for Matsui and the Angels.

Starting Rotation: The Angels have solid starters across the board, but no one to match up with the Sabathia’s and Lester’s of the world.  It’s essentially a bunch of #3 starters, which in the AL West for the regular season might get them to the playoffs, but I wouldn’t expect much if they get there.  Their 5 starters are Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana, Joel Pineiro and Scott Kazmir.  Solid for sure, but doesn’t anyone in that group scare you?  Santana could become an ace, but after a breakout 2008 (127 ERA+ 214 K’s in 217 innings) but struggled last year to an ERA of over 5.  He has the most upside, but likely will not be a top flight pitcher.

Relief Pitching: Closer Brian Fuentes led the league in saves last year, proving once again how useless of a stat saves are.  His strikeout rate in the NL was 10.3/9, last year it plummeted to 7.5/9.  He’ll compile saves again, but isn’t a very good pitcher and good lineups will get to him.  His FIP in the NL in 2008 was 2.24 (xFIP of 3.05) and in the AL in 2009 it was 4.42 (xFIP of 4.94).  As overrated as K-Rod was, he’s miles ahead of Fuentes as a closer.  Joining Fuentes will be Fernando Rodney, a closer in Detroit who might end up taking Fuentes’ job, but isn’t that great himself.  After being a huge part of the pen for the Angels since 2002, Scot Shields was ineffective before undergoing knee surgery and missing the rest of the season.  Was the knee the cause for his ineffectiveness?  The Angels better hope so, as Shields has been huge for them in the past, and with Fuentes and Rodney in the pen, they’ll need Shields to get back to form.  The Angels lost Darrin Oliver in the offseason, which amazingly will be a big blow, and they will need one of their young guys to step up and fill that void.  While the Angels pen has been a strength for years, the 2010 version scares no one.

Final Outlook: I think the Angels question marks will catch up to them this year, and they won’t make the playoffs.  Their OF defense is question mark, several of their key guys are a year older (Matsui, Hunter, Rivera, Abreu) and the loss of John Lackey will hurt.  While I can certainly see them overcoming these issues to make the playoffs in the AL West, I don’t see them as true WS contenders.  They’re just not as good as they have been in recent years.

Looks like the Mariner Moose is driving the Mariner Bandwagon in 2010.

Seattle had a great offseason, bringing in ace pitcher Cliff Lee without giving up too much.  He’s likely just in Seattle for the year, and they’ll have one season to try and contend, then collect the 2 picks when he leaves as a free agent.  Lee and Felix Hernandez together is as formidable a 1-2 top of the rotation there is in the majors.  The question for the Mariners is, do they have enough else to get by?

Outfield: As scary as it may be, Milton Bradley is a huge key for this team.  If he keeps out of trouble, and more importantly stays healthy enough to play 140 games, some of the Mariners offensive questions will be answered.  Bradley, despite what is perceived as a horrible season with the Cubs, wasn’t all that bad last year.  He ended the year with a .257/.378/.397 line and a 99 OPS+.  Certainly not great, but not a train wreck after a horrible April in which he hit .118/.333/.294.  If healthy, there is no doubt what Bradley can do with the bat.  Bradley has been a strong defender throughout his career, and with Franklin Gutierrez in CF, Bradley won’t have to cover too much ground, as Gutierrez gets to just about everything.  Gutierrez provided about a league average bat last year with a .283/.339/.425 103 OPS+ line with 18 HR’s and 16 steals.  With what he contributes with his glove, Gutierrez only needs to be an average bat to be extremely valuable.  In RF is Ichiro, who after a down year in 2008 responded in 2009 with his second best season in his career.  Ichiro has probably always been overrated offensively due to his high average, yet despite his number of Gold Gloves, maybe has been underappreciated defensively.  It’s not that the national media doesn’t recognize that he’s great defensively, but I don’t think they understand the value it brings in relation to his bat.  Ichiro doesn’t appear to be slowing down at the plate or in the field, so expect big things from him again in 2010.  With a healthy Milton Bradley, the Mariners outfield could be, all around, one of the best in baseball this season.

Infield: Free agent signing Chone Figgins was supposed to be brought in to replace Adrian Beltre at 3B, but the Mariners appear to be putting him at 2B, with incumbent 2B moving over to 3B.  Lopez’ has been solid the past two years, but unless the transition to 3B is very smooth defensively, his bat won’t play well at 3B.  His decent 2B pop (42 HR’s the past two years) will not translate as well at third, and his lack of on base skills (.303 career) hurt him immensely.  It’s really just semantics though, as either way Figgins and Lopez are playing the two positions.  Figgins, in his career has started under 100 games at 2B, so I’m not sure what the Mariners are thinking.  Figgins is a solid offensive player, and walked a career high (by 36) 101 times last year.  If he can continue to get on base via the walk he can continue to be valuable, but as he ages look for him to leg out less hits.  Once the speed goes, Figgins won’t carry a ton of value as he lacks any power, and is on the wrong side of 30.  He should be a solid player for the M’s in 2010, but no one you have to game plan around.  At SS is the offensively challenged Jack Wilson.  Wilson provides a solid glove at SS, any offensive he provides will be a bonus. After coming over in a trade last year, Wilson’s first taste of the AL was brutal, to the tune of a .224/.263/.299 line over 31 games.  He has to improve on that, or the M’s will be looking for a new SS, regardless of how well he plays the position.  The defense continues at 1B, where the Mariner’s brought in Casey Kotchman.  Once a top prospect and centerpiece in a deal for Mark Teixeira, Kotchman has simply never developed as hoped.  Just 27 this season, the Mariners are hoping he’ll be a late bloomer.  If he can just return to his 2007 season (.296/.372/.467), the Mariners will be thrilled with what they are getting.

Catcher: The Mariners caught a break when Kenji Johjima walked away from his terrible contract to go back home to Japan.  Unfortunately for the M’s, they don’t have a good replacement for him.  Rob Johnson gets the call after putting up a 65 OPS+ in 80 games last year.  It won’t get much better for Johnson, a career .270/.323/.389 hitter in the minors.  With two aces and great defense all around, it’s a wonder the M’s weren’t in play for someone like Gregg Zaun (95 OPS+ the past 3 years and cheap) to catch for this team.

DH: At DH is fan favorite, but well past his prime Ken Griffey Jr.  The Mariners show they are trying to win by getting Lee, and then show they are trying to draw fans by bringing back Griffey.  It doesn’t make sense.  There are still several DH types on the market who could likely outproduce Griffey, and if the M’s are in contention, look for Griffey to be replaced by the deadline.  Again, the M’s likely only have a 1 year window with both Lee and Felix, and giving Griffey 500 AB’s at this point in his career (.214/.324/.411 last year) is only going to hurt the team.

Starting Rotation: The top of the rotation for the Mariners is phenomenal.  In Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee, the Mariners very likely could have two top 5 Cy Young candidates.  With the defense behind him and a home park like Petco, expect big seasons from the top 2.  After these 2 come Ryan Rowland-Smith, Ian Snell and Doug Fister.  Uggh.  It’s the modern day Spahn and Sain and pray for rain.  While a ton of people jumped on the Mariners bandwagon after the Lee trade, in a competitive division, that 3-4-5 isn’t likely to get it done.  If the 3-4-5 and the bullpen can go .500, the Mariners have a chance as Lee and Felix could be 20 games over .500 by themselves.

Relief Pitching: Did former 1^st round pick David Aardsma finally find his niche as a closer last year, or will he fall back to earth in 2010?  After pitching for 4 teams in 4 years to the tune of a 5.29 ERA and 1.65 WHIP, Aardsma was lights out as a closer last year.  He’s always had the stuff, and it came together for him last year to the tune of a 2.52 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 10.1 K/9 ratio.  He still walked too many people (4.3/9) but was able to limit the damage due to a 6.2/9 hit ratio, helped by an abnormally low .257 BABIP.  Expect some regression due to the expected increase in BABIP, but with the Mariners defense, he could put together another strong year.  The core after Aardsma isn’t very impressive, Brandon League throws hard but has been on and off, Rule 5 pickup Kanekoa Texeira has yet to throw a pitch above AA and probably isn’t ready for the majors, but does have a career 2.49 minor league ERA, and will be worked in slowly.  The bullpen will be given plenty of leads when Lee and Felix are on the mound, but will usually only need to get the job done for 1 or 2 innings as they both go deep into games.

Final Outlook: The Mariners bandwagon is overloaded, and I for one never got on.  Two great pitchers can only get you so far, especially in the AL, and in a division with no pushovers.  Those 3-4-5 pitchers are going to have to match up to Kazmir, Pineiro, and Saunders on the Angels as well as Anderson, Cahill and Braden on the A’s.  They will likely keep the Mariners out of the playoffs, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the M’s out of it before the deadline, prompting them to shop Lee to see if they can bring back more than the picks.