Since the Yankees near trades for Cliff Lee and Dan Haren recently fell through, I decided to try coming up with a list of starting pitchers I would be interested in trading for before the deadline.  The caveat for me is that I don’t think the Yankees need a starter as they got 24 starts out of Chad Gaudin, Sergio Mitre and Chien-Ming Wang last year, and when Phil Hughes was in the rotation he was pretty poor.  Despite that, the Yankees were the class of baseball last year in both the regular season and the playoffs.  Yet this team, already leading the majors in wins, can’t survive losing Pettitte for 6-7 starts?  I don’t agree. [...]

Why do fans outrage over All-Star snubs? Personally, I couldn’t care less whether my favorite players make the All-Star game, it really means nothing to me. As a Yankees fan I certainly want the AL to field a great team to try and get home field for the World Series, but at the expense of getting a guy a few days rest and avoiding potentially long travel? Hell, put the whole Red Sox team in for all I care.

I can understand players getting pissed about snubs, and to an extent I can understand teams getting pissed about snubs (for marketing purposes only), but I just don’t get the backlash from fans. Most fans understand that the process itself is pretty stupid, so why get upset about your favorite players? Should Red Sox fans be upset that David Ortiz was elected as a designated hitter even though Kevin Youkilis is a better designated hitter, he just doesn’t “play” that position during the season? No, they shouldn’t.

But they should be outraged that DH is position up for votes (why not put that up a final vote, any good hitter can you know, hit as designated). They should be outraged that a “utility” player is required, leading to Omar Infante as the worst All-Star choice ever. Seriously, the Braves didn’t need a token rep like several bad All-Star selections of years past. They should be outraged that every team requires a player on the team. I pray that Matt Capps comes into a close game this year, as I am sure the AL will score off him. I actually can see the outrage over the process, especially since the games do count. I just don’t get the outrage of players from your team going. I voted for Nick Swisher because I’m the VP of his fan club, but I’ll be damned if I’m not rooting for Kevin Youkilis with the game on the line for the AL team.

The All-Star game is supposed to be fun, and it’s supposed to count. These really need to be mutally exclusive and it’s not. As big a baseball fan as I am, I rarely watch much more than a few innings of the All-Star game anyway, so that’s probably where some of my apathy towards the game comes from. If it was truly an exhibition game and still featured fun moments like Larry Walker hitting right-handed against Randy Johnson, or Cal Ripken moving over to SS in his last appearance I’d watch it. If it were truly taken seriously and the best 25 man roster (not 57 or however many guys make it now) was put on the field to win the game, I’d watch it. What MLB is doing to the game now? No thanks, I’ll stick to Seinfeld re-runs.

(Photo Credit: Mark J. Terrill, AP)

Over the course of his storied big league career, Pettitte’s always had the label of a “gamer” but not a staff ace, or in the minds of many, a Hall of Famer. When you think of the best pitchers over the last 10 to 15 years, Pettitte’s name probably doesn’t enter the conversation. And they’d be right — Pettitte has rarely been the best pitcher on his own team, let alone one of the best in the game, which is not to say he hasn’t been a very good pitcher for a long time — he has. That alone deserves some pub. Very few guys throw about 15 seasons of 117 ERA+ baseball.

As we look back and reflect on his starts over the course of his career, we should also be mindful that Andy’s started the majority of his games behind some of the worst defensive teams in the modern era. Though those teams were also great-hitting teams and had the greatest closer of all time (boosting his wins), it probably negatively impacted his ERA. While it’s anyone’s guess if this is his last season or not, if he were to go out, it would have a very Mussina-esque feel to it. Here are the stats this year: 10-2, ERA of 2.82, 105 IP, 90 hits, K/BB of 2.52. His last two seasons were quite different, as I’ll explain.

What has Pettitte done differently to go from a mid-4′s ERA mid-to-back-end starter to a guy on pace for a 20-win season and an ERA under 3? Well, not much, really. And yet, tons. Let’s get the basics out of the way: Andy’s generated a .265 BABip against, a number that’s unlikely to remain; a LOB% of 79.5%, and his FIP is a charming but not great 3.93. In short, Number 46 has had considerably good luck this season. His BABip against is roughly 50 points below his career average, his strand rate is about 8 percentage points lower than usual, and his walks and strikes are typical of Andy seasons.

But beyond just luck, Pettitte has pitched very well. It’s not all smoke and mirrors. In fact, the reinvention of Andrew Eugene Pettitte appears to have happened last year. Pettitte is no longer a guy relying on extreme groundball tendencies. Prior to 2009, Andy was generally eliciting a groundball in 50% of at bats or more. Over the past season and a half, it’s been closer to 43-44%, which may also explain the lower BABip (last year was .301). His WHIP is also down to 1.15, which is certainly aided by the low BABip, is also minimal due to the better walk rate at 2.65.

Pettitte’s fastball is better, he’s walking fewer, he’s working his cutter, getting more swinging strikes and more players getting under the ball, which accounts for the 13.7 infield flyball rate, the highest it’s been since 2004. The fastball, I think, may prove to be the biggest step forward. Though he’s working at a slightly lower velocity, it’s been worth 2.1 runs above average this year, a full 8 runs above last year’s total. The cutter hasn’t been as effective this year at 7.2 runs above average (last year was 11.2), but when mixed with a more lethal curveball he throws more often, it’s likely the pitch used to cause infield fly balls and weak contact. Andy’s closing the half season with batters swinging at more pitches outside the zone and less pitches inside the zone, although they are making more overall contact.

We hear all the time that baseball is about constant adjustments. It seems that Andy fundamentally altered the way he faces batters in the 2009 season and 2010 is the more chiseled version of that pitcher. He went from throwing 52% fastballs in his 2008 season with 27% cutters (calling Phil Hughes!) with a 10% usage of his curveball and 6% on his changeup en route to one of his worst professional seasons (per ERA, at least — his other peripherals were fairly good, better than 2007, even). How much of injury factored in is hard to say, but he has changed his approach, that much we know. He’s now throwing more fastballs (57%), fewer cutters (20%), more curves (13-15%) and mixing in a changeup every now and then (still between 6-9%).

It’s also worth noting that the “gamer” bestowment on Andy is actually true. As much as I hate unsubstantiated narrative, this one appears to be true. In his first three innings, Pettitte’s seen opponents hit .286/.340/.436 against him. Of his 36 runs given up this year, 22 came in innings 1-3, and nine of those in the first frame. But after that? Lights out. He’s holding batters to an OPS of about .560 afterwards. Lefties this year have also hit a comical .158/.196/.208 off the Big Bayou Boy in 2010. He’s always been effective against southpaw hitters, but that’s roughly 300 OPS points better than usual. Seriously, that is not a typo.

Zips predicts Andy to throw a 6-5 record with an ERA of 4.59 and an FIP of 4.24 in 96 innings. I see why they’re bearish on him, it’s unlikely he can continue with such good fortune (though he has sustained a LOB% of near 80% once in his career, his 2005 season in Houston), but there seems to be good reason to believe he can keep the BABip lower than he has historically, and his SO/BB has climbed as the season has progressed, indicating he’s hitting his groove.

Pettitte’s career, like that of his teammates Jeter, Posada and Mo, is that of an outlier. He’s still successful not because he has the good fortune of having amazing stuff, but because he’s able to adjust his approach as hitters have taken advantage of his mistakes and shortcomings. And really, that’s the mark of a great player. He may not be a 200 IP, 200 K, 3.00 ERA pitcher, but there’s good reason to believe if he continues to work on his craft — as I expect him to — he can be the 200 IP, 150 K, 3.80-4.15 ERA pitcher he’s been for the better part of his career.

We’re going to breeze through a quick recap of tonight’s game against the Mariners. There may be no better way to sum up just how awful just about everything went than this photo:

There may be nothing funnier than this. I only hope he was hit because he'd just unsuccessfully tried to start the wave.

Here’s how it went: Phil Hughes got completely hit around. He couldn’t locate pitches, he couldn’t shut down the guys he needed to (scrub nobodies like Jack Wilson, Rob Johnson and Michael Saunders), he threw nothing but cutters and fastballs. Ultimately, we saw Hughes give up 7 runs (6 earned) on the evening. This had nothing to do with him having his start skipped last turn around. That’s absurd. The sample size of this causing his struggles is one game. More likely it’s that he had poor command of his pitches, left them in the zone and got tagged. That happens, even against a team of shit-hitters like the Mariners.

It’s not like Hughes was burning through batters lately. In his last four starts he’s 3-1, but his ERA in that span is 6.59. It’s better that his start was skipped for the simple reason that Hughes is on an innings limit and it’s far more advantageous to have Hughes contributing later in the season. You don’t want innings limits, pitch counts, conservative pragmatic approaches to managing a valuable, high-ceiling arm? Petition for Dusty Baker to coach the team and for Nolan Ryan to take over as GM.

The offense largely sputtered through the game, though Nick Swisher and Curtis Granderson contributed nicely, the former with 2 home runs and the latter with a few hard-hit balls against a lefty. The rest of the team went 4 for 30, though to their credit they hit a few balls very solidly, all unfortunately at Mariner defenders. There’s absolutely no shame in the team not putting a whole lot together against Cliff Lee. I mean, shit, he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball for the last few years. He’s legit. I’m hoping he becomes a Yankee next season. A 1-2-3-4 of CC, Cliff Lee, Phil Hughes, AJ Burnett would be murder on any opponent. If there’s a silver lining it’s that Paul O’Neill Theory may be in effect. They put together a nice rally in the 9th before Chad Huffman haphazardly swung at the first pitch, weakly popping out.

Speaking of Chad Huffman, is it just me or does Chad Huffman make everything in left field look SUPER difficult? Most unnatural fielder I’ve seen since I spent hours in a dark room watching clips of Adam Dunn playing RF.

Crazy 8′s

Zambrano issued his mea culpa. Everything now A-ok in Cubbie Land.

Good news, M&A readers! I was able to find an advanced copy of Carlos Zambrano’s apology to his fellow teammates and fans for his outbursts last week. Here it is:

“I’m sorry. It’s my fault that this organization signed Derek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Kosuke Fukodome, Alfonso Soriano and myself all to big-money, flexibility-killing deals. Did you know that combined, we have a WAR of 3.5 this year? Guess how much money we combine to make? Over $77 million for just the five of us. These deals were way above market rates and generally at least two years too long. Sorry about that one. Really. My bad. Oh, but hey, at least you have Carlos Silva at over $11 million for the next few years. Ace.

It’s also my fault that instead of having a dedicated owner who would do whatever it took to contend (like Mark Cuban), the fans are stuck with an owner who — out of pure coincidence, I’m sure — is friends with Bud Selig and just happened to submit a lower ownership bid. Again, it’s my fault fans are stuck with an inferior product but pay top dollar to see it – not the ownership or GM Jim Hendry, who, you know, had nothing to do with assembling this whole mess.

It’s also my fault that the players on this team hate each other so much that in spite of good talent, we under-perform so badly that we have priests blessing us before games, throwing salt over shoulders. Also my bad that players are pledging to kill other players’ wives if they choose Team Edward over Team Jacob. We also sacrifice goats and bathe Kosuke with the blood against his will. Saw that on a Japanese porno once. Ok, maybe that one is really just on me. Anyway, we probably won’t have any chance of doing anything noteworthy aside from being a Clippers-like sideshow for the next three or four years. Or maybe 100 years. That’s my fault, too. Again, Cubs fans, it’s all my fault this team has underperformed for years and there isn’t any light at the end of the tunnel. Getting on my teammates for not making any effort to catch balls because they’re indifferent little shits who don’t even feign a work ethic, was totally uncalled for. For that I sincerely apologize.

It’s not Lou Pinella’s fault that this team is lifeless and argue constantly; that GM Jim Hendry has compiled an impressive array of under-performing veterans with awful contracts, a dearth of impact young talent (and when there, are often inexplicably given sporadic playing time), and no financial flexibility; and also, ownership, who seem to have a vested interest in maintaining the 100-plus years of ineptitude as tradition here in Wrigley. So sorry for what I’ve put you through.”

Notes from around the league:

*Harold Reynolds actually believes that Puerto Rico is a country. He actually said it tonight. Seriously. The worst part of this is I actually thought: “Oh that Harold, sending cryptic messages to Jon Kruk.”

*Barry Larkin said that only guys with facial hair can be intimidating as a closers. I’m not making that up. Have you ever heard of Mariano Rivera?

Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria.

*Edwin Rodriguez is now slated to be the Marlins manager for the rest of 2010.

Thoughts on the Marlins: I really don’t understand how they have any fan base whatsoever. What’s the business process there? This is what I assume is Loria’s 12-step business model.

Step 1: Find old white people, Cubans. Step 2: Get them really, really drunk. So drunk they have no idea where they are. Bus them to that awful “park” the Dolphins used to play in. Step 3: Blow out their ear drums with vuvuzelas. Step 4: Give them more alcohol. Step 5: Spend $20 million on baseball team. Step 6: Steal money from other baseball teams. Step 7: Use stolen money to buy more shitty Jackson Pollack paintings. Step 8: Develop great young talent. Then trade them when they start making more than minimum wage (or turn 25) for prospects. Step 9: Complain to drunk, deaf old people and Cubans that you don’t have any money and you’ll move the team if you don’t get a new stadium and more paintings. Step 10: Steal more money. Step 11: ?????? Step 12: Profit.

*Hank Blalock has been DFA’d by the Rays. If there’s one team that know a thing or two about sunk costs, it’s the Rays. Blalock has been just brutal. Matt Joyce was finally given a bit of playing time, though he’s underperformed. In fairness to him, most of the Rays have underperformed lately. They just lost another one, this game to the Red Sox. Hopefully the two teams split the series so they each stay a few games back of the Yanks.

*Denard Span had three triples tonight! Three! And Gordon Beckham didn’t go 0 for 5 with 5 strikeouts! Wacky day, indeed!

Park, in happier times.

It’s no secret that the Yankees’ bullpen has struggled this year. Begotten by injuries and general inconsistency, the “big” numbers say that the bullpen has been among the better in the AL, but that doesn’t exactly tell the whole story, as Steve S. (or as I call him affectionately, “Aristeve”) at TYU points out in this post. The positive numbers in the pen have largely come out of the excellent Mariano Rivera and the surprising Sergio Mitre (although he’s been aided by very good luck, well, aside from being injured trying to swing a bat – damn you, NL!).

Throughout the course of the season, I’ve been a backer of Chan Ho Park. I certainly didn’t expect him to post the numbers he did last year as a Phillie (moving to the AL East and having a FB/HR rate that was unsustainable would likely cause some bad outings) but with a fastball that often hits 95, a good repetoire of breaking pitches and the ability to go a few innings — all at a low cost — should allow him some time to show what he has even if he stumbles out of the gate. Well, on the cusp of July I’m just not sure I can continue to pull for CHoPpearrea. His numbers: 6.86 ERA, 5.75 FIP, 2.57 HR/9 (a 20% HR/FB rate) in 21 IP.

Some have said that Girardi is simply misusing Park – he’d be servicable if he were only out there for 1 inning per appearance. Well, let’s take a look at the numbers.

In games in which Park pitched more than one inning (7 of them), he’s had mixed results, as you can see. There’s only one real conclusion that can be drawn when taking in all of the data available. For now, let’s just look at the raw boxscore numbers.

*On April 7th, game 2, Park went three innings against the Red Sox. Although I recall there being quite a few deep flies, he gave up but one hit, in his 3rd inning. No runs were scored in total.

*April 13th versus Angels: Breezed through the first inning of work but gave up a monstrous shot to Kendry Morales in the 8th. No runs in his first inning. One run in his second inning.

*On May 20th, the Yanks took on the Rays. Struggling 1B Carlos Pena took Park deep in his first inning pitched. This is after he was almost burned by a deep line drive to RF by Ben Zobrist, which Swisher caught. Not a good first inning. His second inning against 7-8-9 batters went much more smoothly – he gave up a single to “Did You Know He Was An All-Star?” Dioner Navarro, but that was all. To recap, one run in his first inning. Zero runs in subsequent inning.

*On May 22nd, Park replaced Phil Hughes with after Alex Cora knocked him out of the game (?!). Park immediately gave up a single and then got a groundout to end the inning. Not terrible, but not a shutdown either. His next inning saw him give up a single and a double to score a run. No runs in first inning, one run in his second.

*Park faced the Indians on May 31st. His first inning started with a strikeout and ended with two weak groundouts. Nice, not bad! The second inning though featured 2 hits and a walk, which led to run. No runs in first inning, one run in second.

*In an extra-innings game at Skydome The Rogers Centre on June 5th, Park came in and issued one walk but also struck one out and received two weak groundball outs in his first IP. The second inning featured two strikeouts, a single and one walk. No runs issued.

*Of course, last night in Arizona CHoP got lit up. He came into the game in the 7th and did fairly well. It was surprisingly tranquil. Then, in the 9th, he gave up two singles and then a monster home run to Justin Upton. No runs in his first inning. 3 runs in his second inning.

So if we add up our tally here, in his first inning of multiple-inning games, Park has given up one run in his first inning pitched and 6 in his second frame. Of course, in games he’s only pitched one total inning or less, he’s given up 10 runs in 6 2/3rds innings.

It’s not Girardi’s management of Chan Ho Park that’s caused the issues – it’s that Chan Ho Park has simply been an awful pitcher. The good news is if he were to be DFA’d today, he’d only collect a little over $650k. Later on we’ll explore possible candidates to take his spot.

I'll take any excuse to post this picture, really.

Hey all. Bexy’s back. For right now, at least.

So last night’s game was pretty awesome, right? We won, there was some timely hitting from the bottom of the order which is always nice, Pettitte turned in another great performance and got win #200 with the Yankees, Mariano was Mariano, and it was all over before 9:30 for us cranky old people. Wait, what’s that you say? Last night was in fact completely ruined by A-Rod? Who would say such a stupid thing? Oh, wait, it was Wallace Matthews? Well, I guess that’s not really all that surprising.

Believe it or not, I’ve only read ESPN New York a few times since the site launched, and only when linked. So when, shortly after the game, someone linked me to a certain article of Matthews’ which I will not be linking because I’m not giving them traffic, I … didn’t quite know how to react. I read the article a few times and then just kind of stared at it. I mean, there’s bad sportswriting, and then there’s that. It’s pretty much the exact kind of article that makes me wish, terribly, that Fire Joe Morgan still existed. With their tragic departure from these here internets, though, all we have to turn to are poor imitators of their utter genius. Like, well, me. Let’s do this thing, shall we? [...]

The very lucky Sergio Mitre. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)

I think I’m the only person outside Sergio Mitre’s family that really like him. Everyone is always saying how awful he is. Anyway, something about sinkerball pitchers make me swoon. If you take a quick look at The Experience’s line this year, you’ll be pretty surprised at what you see. Sergio Mitre has a 3.13 ERA. Wait, what? That guy? The guy who’s averaged a 5.42 ERA in his career? Yep, it’s true. So let’s take a closer look at Serg and see what’s behind those numbers.

First thing that will pop out here is his K-rate is down slightly and his walks are up slightly. It’s not a big difference from where he was last year, but considering his ERA then was 6.79, it’s a bit surprising. Mitre is never going to be a strikeout pitcher – he forces hitters to slam the ball into the ground. It’s his bread and butter. Last year’s groundball rate was a very nice 59.8%, right around his career totals. This year? It’s down to 49%. Hmmm. That’s odd. How does a groundball pitcher who’s getting less strikeouts, issuing more walks and less groundballs cut his ERA by more than half? [...]

Paul O'Neill, talking to Michael Kay about going back in time and building Saefco Field. Or something like that. Whatever.

It’s hard to be upset when your team scores 8 runs. It generally means the team really came through. And that’s not necessarily untrue in this game, but it does present some still-lingering concerns. Just a few quick notes from tonight’s game.

*Hughes again looked very good overall, which is nice to see after his previous outing. His pitches were razor sharp in the opening frames and he never really got into serious trouble, though he sputtered a bit. He now has a 2.70 ERA and six wins to one loss and with eight strikeouts, he now has a K/9 over nine.

One thing, though: while he may be a guy with great strikeout stuff, it seemed like he was trying to strike out every single batter. It was working really well for a point in time – he struck out the first five batters – but maybe it would be better to elicit some contact here and there. His pitches weren’t as good in the middle parts of the game and his pitch selection became fastball-cutter, fastball-cutter. That’s not necessarily a recipe for success, and it also leaves him susceptible to left-handers (hello, Russell!). The game was very encouraging and he ended well, but he was facing a shitty lineup and he got away from what makes him most effective as a pitcher – mixing his excellent curve ball with his plus fastball and plus cutter. I don’t want to sound like a negative Nancy, but it wasn’t perfect. He’s a young starter with a world of potential, so maybe it’s not a bad thing that he has some things to work on.

Maybe one day he’ll start throwing changeups, too? (The team lied to us. Phil’s changeup is absolutely not the reason he won the 5th starter’s role.) [...]