Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage and Bruce Sutter are in the Hall of Fame.  David Cone, Chuck Finley and Orel Hershiser aren’t, nor will they get close.  Isn’t there something wrong with this?  I have zero doubt that if Cone, Finley or Hershisher were moved to the closers role at a young age, they would have dominated.  Had Fingers, Gossage or Sutter been good enough to be starters, they would have either stuck in the rotation or been promoted to the rotation.  Why should lesser pitchers be honored because of the role they were put in?  None of the above closers was nearly as valuable in their careers as the starters were, yet they are bronzed in Cooperstown, while the others just had nice careers.

By putting closers in the Hall of Fame, you are essentially rewarding mediocrity.  Closers are put in the bullpen because they are not good enough to succeed as a starter, and as we all know, a #3 starter brings more value than the elite closers.  Even GM’s get this, as #3 starters are often paid much more money than elite closers are on the open market.  So why doesn’t this also apply to Hall of Fame voting?  Why are players who were limited enough in their ability that they had to be put in a less valuable role bronzed in Cooperstown? [...]

A post over at You Can’t Predict Baseball about Pedro’s ridiculous 2000 season got me to thinking about seeing Pedro in person.  I’ve been to probably 100 major league games in person, but there was no experience like seeing Pedro, in his prime, in person.  The atmosphere was simply electric; there was just a totally different feel in the park when #45 was on the mound.

It was 1999, when he is in the midst of his 1^st AL Cy Young season, and his 2^nd year with the Red Sox.  While he hadn’t won the Cy in 1998 due to struggles down the stretch and a pitching Triple Crown by Roger Clemens, Pedro had already established himself as an event to see. In his first 4 starts in Boston, Pedro pitched 32 innings with a 0.84 ERA, 44 K’s, 7 BB’s, 1 HR and a .404 OPS against.  Sox fans were hooked.  The fans were used to events having watched Clemens himself through the years, but even Clemens at his best couldn’t match Pedro.  The 1998 Pedro was great, but in 1999 he hit a whole new level. [...]

There’s a lot of things to get annoyed with about mainstream baseball analysis, but one of the more irritating obsessions of the media is the importance placed on relief pitching, particularly the eighth inning set-up man. We’ve seen this phenomenon manifest itself in the whole Joba debate way too many times. It’s difficult to say where the whole TEH EIGHTH!!!!! brouhaha began, but as a totally self-absorbed Yankee fan, I can’t help but think of a topic near and dear to my heart: the 1996 Yankees, and Mariano Rivera’s role with that team.

The 1996 Yankees were not exactly the Bronx Bombers. They had a team OPS+ of 100. Ruben Sierra and his 83 OPS+ at DH got regular playing time, as did Joe Girardi and his 82 OPS+. Their total batter WAR, by Rally WAR, equaled 14.7, good for just ninth in the league and completely dwarfed by such powerhouses as Seattle (36.9) (commence hysterical laughter at the thought of Seattle as an offensive powerhouse here), Cleveland (26.9), and their ALDS opponent Texas (23.7). Only two individual players, Bernie Williams with a 3.4 and Paul O’Neill with a 3.3, were worth more than 3 WAR. For comparison’s sake, the 2009 Yankees had six such players, and all of them had a total WAR higher than 3.4.

The 1996 Yankees’ strength was in their pitching. Their team ERA+ of 108 was strong and, rather astonishingly, their combined pitcher WAR led all of baseball with a 25.7. But here’s where it gets interesting: their starting pitching wasn’t something you could point to and go “wow” like you could with, say, Atlanta’s pitching from that year. Andy Pettitte led the staff in reality, if not name, pitching 221 innings with a 3.87 ERA, 4.08 FIP (meh, though it still led the team), and 129 ERA+, putting up 5.7 WAR. Again, just to compare, in 2009, Felix Hernandez put up 5.8 WAR, and Justin Verlander and Jon Lester put up 5.6. Yeah, Andy had a pretty good 1996 and, judging from some articles I’ve read from that year, him not winning the Cy Young that year was a major upset (hilarious in retrospect article from after Game 1 of the 1996 World Series).

Andy was also the only pitcher to give the Yankees more than 200 innings, with 221. I suspect I’m preaching to the choir here, but getting innings out of your starting pitching is incredibly important. More innings from your starting pitching means fewer innings from your relievers, who are generally inferior pitchers.

The team’s other primary starters had various issues, mostly based around giving innings. David Cone had an excellent year, posting a 2.88 ERA and a 3.24 FIP, but he was out with an aneurysm and only made 11 starts, pitching 72 total innings. Ramiro Mendoza made as many starts as Cone did. Cone’s 72 innings were so strong they were able to provide the team with 2.6 WAR, but that still left a lot of innings to fill. Rogers had a respectable 3.6 WAR, but a 4.68 ERA (107 ERA+) and 4.83 FIP, and his K/BB ratio was scary at 1.11. He only pitched 179 innings, as well.

Jimmy Key pitched 169.1 innings with a 2.9 WAR, 4.68 ERA, and 4.48 FIP. Dwight Gooden had a 2.9 WAR with a 5.01 ERA (100 ERA+) and 4.85 FIP. Twelve different pitchers made starts for the 1996 Yankees. The 2009 Yankees had several issues with their rotation, but they had “only” nine different pitchers make starts for them.

So there were some starting pitching issues. Why, then, did the 1996 Yankees have such strong pitching overall?

When talking about the 1996 Yankees, members of that team and baseball analysts tend to say that if the Yankees had the lead after the seventh inning, the game was all but won, with the combination of Rivera in the eighth and Wetteland in the ninth. Mariano Rivera’s role is characterized as a mere setup man for John Wetteland, the closer that year.

The thing is, that characterization completely undervalues what Mo did for that team. In 2009, the Yankees’ “eighth inning” guy, Phil Hughes, pitched 86 innings, and that’s including seven starts he made. In 1996, Mariano Rivera pitched an astounding-for-a-reliever 107.2 innings; even Scott Proctor never pitched that many innings with the Yankees. That is way more than just an eighth inning guy. In 61 appearances, Mariano pitched one inning or less only 20 times.

In a year when the Yankees generally didn’t have the starting pitching giving them the length they needed, Mariano provided not only innings, but, to say the least, quality innings. Over, again, 107.2 innings, he had a 2.08 ERA and a totally ridiculous 1.88 FIP. His WHIP was under 1, he struck out 10.9 batters per nine innings, and his K/BB was 3.82. He gave up one home run all year. According to Rally WAR, Mariano was worth 5.4 WAR that year, second on the team to only Andy Pettitte, and behind him by only 0.3 WAR – and Pettitte pitched over 100 innings more than Rivera did! A lot of Yankee fans don’t have very fond memories of Tom Gordon from 2004, but the fact remains that he had a pretty amazing regular season as, mostly, Mariano’s setup man. He was worth “only” 4 WAR, and he was about as good as a setup man could be that year.

So please, sports media, even though there’s likely no way you’ll ever read this, stop characterizing Mariano Rivera as the “eighth inning guy” on the 1996 Yankees. He was a lot more than that. When you characterize him as such, you simultaneously make a rather insignificant role on a team sound way too important, and diminish what Mariano actually did for that team. And that makes the whole world sad, or at least me.

Get ready to hear about 2004 approximately 82,375 times the next few days.  As the Boston Bruins have let a 3-0 series lead slip to a 3-3 tie, we will get to relive 2004 all over again.  While the Yankees loss to the Red Sox in the ALCS was painful, and considered a huge choke, was it really that big of a deal?  Head to head, how did these teams stack up?

Catcher: Because “game calling ability” has yet to be quantified, I’m going to have to go with Jorge Posada over Jason Varitek here.  This is back when Varitek was a good catcher, but other than in media narratives, Varitek just wasn’t in Posada’s league.  This was right in the best three year stretch of Varitek’s career (121 OPS+ from 2003-2005), Posada’s at 124 for his career and was at 131 in 2004.  While defense from the catcher position is extremely hard to quantify, fangraphs still has Posada ahead in WAR, 4.9 to 4.4.  Slight Edge: Yankees

First Base: The Yankees threw out a combo of a couple of guys past their primes in John Olerud and Tony Clark.  The Sox countered with Kevin Millar.  Advantage Sox.  Millar had a solid season with the bat but due to position adjustment and poor defense (again hard to quantify at the position) Millar put up a 1.8 WAR.  Olerud and Clark combined for the whole season (including Olerud’s time in Seattle) was 1.6.  Big Edge: Red Sox

Second Base: Miguel Cairo for the Yankees, Mark Bellhorn for the Sox.  Easy win for the Sox as Bellhorn had a very strong year in 2004, and Miguel Cairo is, well, Miguel Cairo.  Bellhorn put up a 3.2 WAR, Cairo was at 0.8.  Slight aside, for all of the money the Yankees spent, how the hell were Miguel Cairo and Clark/Olerud manning the right side of the IF in the playoffs? Big Edge: Red Sox

Shortstop:  Derek Jeter vs. Orlando Cabrera.  Without delving too deep, big win for the Yankees.  It wasn’t one of Jeter’s best years offensively, but he was still good defensively back then, and quite easily better than Cabrera.  Big Edge: Yankees

Third Base: Even in a down year for Alex Rodriguez, he is able to overcome the pure grit of Bill Mueller and take the win here. Gigantic Edge: Yankees

Left Field:  As good as Hideki Matsui was in 2004, he’s no Manny.  Just another ho-hum year from Manny with his 6^th straight season with an OPS >1.000.  Neither was any good in the field, but Manny has the clear edge with the bat.  Big Edge: Red Sox

Center Field: While Bernie Williams in his prime was as feared as it gets (building the HOF case with false narratives FTW), Johnny Damon was by far the better player by 2004.  There’s a rumor that these two had a throwing competition in 2004, to see who could throw from Fenway’s Bermuda Triangle to home plate in the least amount of throws.  I drove by the stadium the other day and 5+ years later, they are almost to the infield.  While they both clearly had bad arms, Bernie wasn’t covering much ground by 2004, and was a league average bat.  Bernie was just a 0.1 WAR player, Damon was at 3.9.  Big Edge: Red Sox

Right Field: While Trot Nixon missed a ton of time in 2004, he was healthy for the playoffs and in his limited time was very productive with a 123 OPS+.  He is clearly no match for Gary Sheffield though who had a monster 1^st season for the Yankees.  Gigantic Edge: Yankees

DH: In a steroid fueled battle, David Ortiz demolishes the combination of Jason Giambi (by far his worst year as a Yankee) and Ruben Sierra.  Yankee DH’s in 2004 hit for a .248/.341/.442 with 29 HR’s.  They were designated hitters in name only.  David Ortiz hit .301/.380/.603 with 41 HR’s, most of which came as a DH.  Gigantic Edge: Red Sox

Starting Pitching:  The Yankees had 6 pitchers make at least 15 starts in 2004.  Only one of them was much better than average and that was El Duque who pitched less than 100 innings. After a great start Javy Vazquez struggled down the stretch pitching through injuries.  It was a down year for Mike Mussina.  Kevin Brown was solid for 22 starts, but nothing special.  Jon Lieber was league average.  Jose Contreras was terrible in his 18 starts. There was no one even close to being a dominating starter on the 2004 Yankees.  The 6 Yankee starters in 2004 combined for 13.7 WAR.

The Red Sox got a huge year out of Curt Schilling.  Pedro Martinez, while not the Pedro of old, was still a very good pitcher, and Bronson Arroyo had a very solid year with a 121 ERA+.  You can easily say that the top 3 Red Sox pitchers were better than any Yankee starter in 2004.  That’s scary.  Derek Lowe and Tim Wakefield were about league average.  The combined WAR for the Sox starters was 22.5.  They were almost twice as valuable as the Yankees starters throughout the regular season.  Schilling and Pedro alone contributed 13.0 WAR, just above the Yankees whole rotation combined.  Gigantic Edge: Red Sox

Bullpen: As great as Mo is, Keith Foulke wasn’t far behind in 2004 (and clearly was ridiculous in the playoffs).  The Yankees pen overall had a 4.43 ERA while the Sox were at 3.92.    Even with giving a slight edge to Rivera and Tom Gordon’s monster (regular) season, overall the Sox pen was better.  Slight Edge: Red Sox

Add it all up, and in my (unscientific) totals, The Yankees and Sox had 2 “gigantic edges”, and 1 “slight edge” each.  The Sox however had 4 big edges to the Yankees 1.  While these different “edges” carry different values, I think we’d all agree that starting pitching is the most important, and the Sox were clearly superior.  Obviously losing the series after jumping out to a 3-0 was terrible, but what if the Red Sox had swept the Yankees in 4 games, instead of winning 4 straight to head to the World Series?  What we seem to forget is that the Red Sox were a much, much better team in 2004 than the Yankees were. The Red Sox Pythagorean W/L that year was 89-73 (vs. a 101-61 record) and the Sox’ Pythagorean W/L was 96-66 (vs. a 98-64 record).  The Yankees truly had no business being up 3-0 in the first place.  The pain will never truly subside, as any team with a 3-0 should find a way to finish it off, but they were simply beaten by a much superior team.

If some people in baseball still haven’t figured out the value of OBP, how the hell did my friends and I figure it out as pre-teens?  When I was a kid, my friends and I played a ton of Strat-O-Matic baseball.  We had the every team from the 1989 season, as well as a few random older teams.  We’d blindly pick a set of team cards out of a hat, build our lineup and play.  When we got sick of individual teams, we’d pick anywhere from 2-5 teams and build an all-star team based on their players.  We’d literally take 20-30 minutes sorting through player cards, figuring out which players to play, positions to put them at, and how to build the lineup.  Why did it take so long to put the teams together?  Why not just throw the “best” players together in a lineup and go, after all the cards listed BA, HR, AB, 2B, 3B, BB, and K.

We were a competitive bunch of little s.o.b.’s, so instead of just throwing the big name guys together in a lineup, we scoured over ever card trying to figure out the best players, not just the ones with the best back of the baseball card statistics.  Indirectly, this led us to completely ignore batting average, and instead focus on on-base percentage and slugging percentage.  Every player card has 33 possible outcomes, and we would count the number of positive outcomes (i.e. not making outs) to see which players were truly the best, regardless of batting average.  Along with that, we would build around guys who had a ton of power, because as we know, chicks dig the long ball.  By building this way, we were eschewing batting average in favor of OBP and SLG.  Did we look at RBI?  Hell no, it all came down to the RBI opportunities to drive in runs, not some innate ability to drive in runs.    It’s also worth noting, that unless it was Rickey Henderson or Vince Coleman, we rarely attempted steals.  Why?  It simply wasn’t worth the risk.  Remember, we were doing this as kids in the early late 80’s and early 90’s.

In hindsight, I also realize how much Strat-O-Matic destroys the “wins and losses are important stats for a pitcher” argument.  We weren’t really concerned about structuring our pitchers as in a normal game, so we would often have a closer pitch 9 innings and didn’t need to pay attention to pitch counts, or matchups, or any of that.  But looking back at the cards, Strat-O-Matic does a great job of making good pitchers succeed, and bad pitchers fail.  While it obviously doesn’t take any defense or luck into the equation, it at the very least ignores wins and losses.  I can’t imagine how dominating Nolan Ryan’s 1987 card would look, and Ben Sheets’ 2004 card would look despite their 8-16 and 12-14 win loss records.  Hell, if Joe Morgan were playing Strat-O-Matic, he would take Rick Sutcliffe and his league leading 18 wins over Ryan’s 8 wins, or maybe Shane Rawley and his 17 wins, and as with everything else in his post playing career, Morgan would fail miserably.

Here we are in 2010, and there are still people who don’t get the concept that batting average is a very flawed stat for a batter, and wins for a pitcher is useless.  I hear it 10 times a day on WEEI, that “who cares about OBP, I want someone who produces runs and gets hits” or “but how many wins did he have.”  And let’s not forget about the whole base clogger nonsense.  How do these people, including many who have jobs in sports or in baseball, still not get it?

Who can build a better baseball team, the BBWAA or me? (from my mother’s basement, of course)  Before I start, I’m predicting myself in a landslide; I will be evaluating players’ statistics and deciding an overall winner based primarily on WAR and WAR/150.  For the ground rules, I will be choosing from well known players, nobody from the 1890’s or any obscure players who clearly don’t belong.  I will not consider players who had great peaks but didn’t play long enough to compile Hall-worthy careers (like Nomar), and most of the players on my team I truly believe should be Hall of Famers, though there may be a few that I have to sneak on to fill out my team, such as whomever my closer will be.  I also will be picking some Hall of Famers that I do think belong, but still might not be better than the player on my team.  I will not be considering any Veteran’s Committee inductees, as they had their 15 years on the ballot and were determined not to be Hall of Famers.  I will not consider Roberto Alomar for my team, as he was close enough on his 1^st ballot that he will absolutely get in nor will I consider Pete Rose or Mark McGwire, as they were obviously a Hall of Fame players, but are not in for other reasons. I will consider Bert Blyleven, as the BBWAA has had more than enough time to get it right with him, yet still haven’t.  Also I did not necessarily pick the worst Hall of Famer at each position, mostly because I wanted Jim “Feared” Rice on the team (over Lou Brock) and Ozzie Smith (over Luis Aparicio).  For the position players I will be looking at career WAR and WAR/150, as well as triple slash lines and OPS+.  For the starting pitchers I am looking at career WAR and WAR/200 innings as well as wins(even though useless), WHIP, ERA, ERA+, K/9 and K/BB.

Catcher.  Catcher goes to the BBWAA, as there have only been 4 catchers retired since 1960 who are in the Hall, Berra, Bench, Fisk and Carter.  Surprisingly I went with Carlton Fisk. While he out WAR’d Carter career 67.5 to 66.2, it took him an extra 200 games.  My pick was Ted Simmons, who was an almost identical offensive player to Fisk (in the same era), but lacked the defensively abilities of the original Pudge.  Simmons was on the ballot for just one year, garnering 3.70% of the vote.

Player	WAR	WAR/150	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
Simmons	50.8	3.10	0.285	0.348	0.437	117
Fisk	67.5	4.05	0.269	0.341	0.457	117

First Base.  First base was an easy win for my team, but I’m surprised at who I ended up selecting.  I was thinking it might be Fred McGriff, but “I’m Keith Hernandez” ended up taking the 1^st base slot.  His “competition” from the Hall team comes from Tony Perez, a horrible selection if I’ve ever seen one.  Hernandez was on the ballot for 9 years, topping out at 10.8% of the vote.

Player	WAR	WAR/150	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
Hernandez	61.0	4.38	0.296	0.384	0.436	128
Perez	50.3	2.72	0.279	0.341	0.463	122

Second Base.  Second base is another win for my team.  It was tough, as only 9 players have been voted in by the BBWAA, 6 of whom retired before 1960, so I really only had 3 players to pick from for the Hall of Fame team (Carew/Sandberg/Morgan).  It’s funny, as I was thinking about the post, I had a few names in mind, including Lou Whitaker.  Once I started researching, I realize that while it’s a traveshmockery Whitaker isn’t in, and didn’t even stick on the ballot, Bobby Grich’s exclusion is even more insane.  What a beast of a second baseman he was.  For the Hall team I took Ryne Sandberg, whom Grich beats out in career WAR as well as WAR/150.  My memories of Bobby Grich are as a light hitter on RBI Baseball, I never realized just how good he was.  Naturally Grich was on the ballot for only a year and received 2.6% of the vote.

Player	WAR	WAR/150	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
Grich	67.6	5.05	0.266	0.371	0.424	125
Sandberg	61.8	4.28	0.285	0.344	0.452	114

Third Base.  I win again at the hot corner, the BBWAA wins in career WAR, I win in WAR/150 by almost a full win.  3B is another position with limited options, but the choice for the HOF team was easily Brooks Robinson, the other contenders being Mathews, Brett, Boggs, and Schmidt.  No brainer to put the Robinson and his pedestrian bat here.  My pick was Ron Santo, who played in more than 600 games less than Robinson, but produced a similar career WAR.  Santo lasted 15 years on the ballot, never getting more than 43.1% of the vote.

Player	WAR	WAR/150	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
Santo	66.4	4.44	0.277	0.362	0.464	125
Robinson	69.2	3.58	0.267	0.322	0.401	104

Shortstop.  I get the win at shortstop.  While I could have taken a lesser player for the BBWAA team, I went with Ozzie Smith, as he was a contemporary of my pick, Alan Trammell.  Despite playing in almost 300 less games than Smith, Trammell out-WAR’d him for their careers. Trammell, simply put, was a better player than the Wizard of Oz.  There is not a single GM in baseball in the 1980’s who would have taken Smith over Trammell, yet Smith is in on the 1^st ballot (backflips FTW), while Trammell’s highest total in 9 years on the ballot is 22.4%.

Player	WAR	WAR/150	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
Trammell	66.8	4.37	0.285	0.352	0.415	110
Smith	64.7	3.77	0.262	0.337	0.328	87

Left Field.  Left field is another big win for my team, and one of the main reasons I wanted to go through this exercise.  I of course took Tim Raines over Jim Rice, and it wasn’t close.  If Rice hadn’t played in Fenway, he would have been a league average player.  In 3 years on the ballot, Raines’ highest vote total is 30.4%, which is a shame, though there is hope for him yet as more truly smart baseball writers get votes.

Player	WAR	WAR/150	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
Raines	64.9	3.89	0.294	0.385	0.425	123
Rice	41.5	2.98	0.298	0.352	0.502	128

Center Field.  Center field was surprisingly close and I’d consider it a push.  I had no idea who I would come up with for CF, and was stunned to see that it was Chet Lemon.  For the BBWAA it was everyone’s favorite woman beater and likely steroid user, Kirby Puckett, who clearly got in on personality and pity, before stories about the real Puckett came out.  While Lemon doesn’t belong in the Hall, I was surprised to see just how well he stacks up to Puckett, with a higher career WAR, and almost identical WAR/150.  Again, Puckett was a 1^st ballot HOF, while Lemon was a one ballot hopeful, getting 0.2% of the vote.

Player	WAR	WAR/150	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
Lemon	49.8	3.76	0.273	0.355	0.442	120
Puckett	45.0	3.79	0.318	0.360	0.477	124

Right Field.  Right field is a win for me (getting old).  The worst part is, I believe Andre Dawson, my choice for the BBWAA, got in simply because Jim Rice got in.  If Rice got in, why not Dawson? I’m guessing was the reasoning.  The worst part about that, of course, is that my choice, Dwight Evans, was better than them both, played in the same era, and shared an outfield with Rice for Rice’s whole career!  How do people not see this? Not only does Evans beat out Dawson, but look up again at Rice’s stats and down at Evans’.  Simply put, Evans destroys his former teammate.  While it at least took Dawson a while to get in, Evans made it to just 3 ballots, topping out at 10.4%

Player	WAR	WAR/150	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
Evans	61.7	3.55	0.272	0.370	0.470	127
Dawson	56.8	3.24	0.279	0.323	0.482	119

Right Handed Starter.  Another easy win for my team.  Bert Blyleven is so deserving of being in the Hall of Fame, it’s not even funny.  At this point, if he finally gets in next year, he should just decline the offer.  He matches up with the BBWAA’s Catfish Hunter, whom he thoroughly destroys.  Maybe Blyleven should have had a better nickname.  Blyleven has almost 3x the career WAR of Hunter, and almost 2x the WAR/200.  Wow.

Player	WAR	WAR/200	Wins	ERA	ERA+	WHIP	K/9	K/BB
Blyleven	90.1	3.63	287	3.31	118	1.198	6.7	2.8
Hunter	32.5	1.88	224	3.26	104	1.134	5.2	2.11

Left Handed Starter.  I’ll give this one to the BBWAA, but it’s closer than I expected.  Who would think, that in essentially the same number of innings, Tawney Kitean’s ex-husband Chuck Finley was basically the same pitcher as Whitey Ford in terms of WAR? I was surprised myself, and while I don’t think Finley is a Hall of Famer, he is better than I remember.  Though the WAR’s are about identical, I’ll give Ford the edge due to his much better ERA+ and WHIP.  Finley lasted on the ballot for just one year, garnering 0.2% of the vote.

Player	WAR	WAR/200	Wins	ERA	ERA+	WHIP	K/9	K/BB
Finley	55.0	3.44	200	3.85	115	1.376	7.3	1.96
Ford	55.3	3.49	236	2.75	133	1.215	5.6	1.8

Closer.  Let me start by saying that I do not think Lee Smith belongs in the Hall of Fame, but he’s a better choice than Bruce Sutter, and it’s another win for my team.  Considering the BBWAA likes big round (often useless) numbers, I’m surprised Sutter is in, and Smith is out despite 59% more saves than Sutter.  Was Sutter more dominating though, is that why he got in?  Well, no, not really.  They were very similar pitchers, but Smith’s longevity puts him over the top in career WAR by over 5 wins.  Smith has been on the ballot 8 years without gaining any real traction, he got 42.3% of the vote in year 1, and 47.3% in year 8 which is his highest percentage to date.

Player	WAR	WAR/200	Saves	ERA	ERA+	WHIP	K/9	K/BB
Smith	30.3	4.70	478	3.03	131	1.256	8.7	2.57
Sutter	25.0	4.80	300	2.83	136	1.14	7.4	2.79

Add it all up, and rather easily the team I put together with BBWAA rejects is a better team than the team of Hall of Famers.  My teams batters outWAR the HOF’s 489 to 456.8, and out-WAR/150 them 32.54 to 28.42

The pitchers on my team totaled a 175.4 WAR, vs. the HOF team totaling a 112.8 WAR(Blyleven himself hits 80% of that).  The WAR/200 was 11.77 for my team and 10.17 for the HOF team.

Putting everything together, my team’s total WAR is 664.4, with a WAR/150 of 44.31.  The HOF team has a total WAR of 569.6 with a WAR/150 of 38.59.  As if we didn’t already know the BBWAA, as a whole, simply suck at Hall of Fame voting.  I put my team together solely based on statistics, without any intangibles such as “fear”, “knows how to win”, “could do backflips”, etc.  Even without those monikers, I have no doubt my hypothetical team could beat the team of Hall of Famers.

How many future Hall of Famers are in the major leagues right now? I will go team by team and identify players who have a chance at getting to Cooperstown someday. I will not be using Jim Rice as a benchmark, as listing all players who are more qualified than Jim Rice would use up way too much bandwidth. I also will not be including players with less than 8 full years in the bigs, as they are just too far away. Sure, Hanley Ramirez looks like a future Hall of Famer, but so did Nomar after 4 years in the majors. Too much can happen to really predict guys that young and their Hall chances. I will add my 2 cents on whether I think the player should get in, and the odds that they will. Due to the mediocy of the BBWAA, I will not consider anyone to be a 100% lock, the BBWAA’s track record tells me nothing other than they, as a whole, don’t know what they are doing.  Today I’ll go thru the American League, for the National League click here.

Baltimore

• None.  Though I believe PECOTA has already inducted Matt Wieters.  Miguel Tejada had a great peak, but has fallen quite a bit since testing began and won’t be able to overcome steroids with great career numbers.  Without steroids and with a longer peak, allowing him to compile more career numbers would have given him a strong chance, but as it is, he has to be out.

Boston

• Surprisingly no great candidates
• Josh Beckett simply hasn’t been good enough in the regular season, if he repeats his next 8 years to match his first 8, he’ll have 212 wins, and only one Top 10 finish in the Cy Young voting.  He would have to get much better over the next 8 years, and there’s not much that says he will, as he has been pretty inconsistent, and nagging injury prone throughout his career.
  • Should he get in?  No. Will he get in? <1%
• Victor Martinez is 30 with 111 career HR’s and will likely be a full time 1B shortly.
  • Should he get in?  No. Will he get in? <1%
• Adrian Beltre, if he could stick around and get 3000 hits would be an interesting case.  Thru 11 full seasons he’s been great (offensively) only once, while providing stellar defense.  Because he was in the bigs at 19, he’ll be 31 this year with only 1300 hits to go to 3000.  At 150 hits per year, he’d get to 3000 in under 9 years.  Not likely, but possible nonetheless.  Would that get him in?  It probably would, but I’m assuming he just won’t get there, or even close.  As soon as his defense slips to even league average, he’s not a viable starter, and since his bat won’t play elsewhere, he won’t likely won’t get the AB’s required to compile hits.
  • Should he get in?  No.  Will he get in?  5%
• David Ortiz.  Not even close.

Chicago

• Mark Buerhle.  Has a solid chance to pile up 250+ wins, but simply never great enough for consideration.
  • Should he get in? No.  Will he get in? <5%.  Could pull a Jamie Moyer and approach 300 wins, but I just don’t see that happening.
• Paul Konerko.  Solid 1B but never dominating and won’t compile HOF numbers
  • Should he get in? No.  Will he get in? <1%

• Andruw Jones.  Was well on his way but possibly ate himself out of consideration.  Got to the Majors at 19, was widely considered the best defensive CF since Willie Mays (whether true or not is up to argument).  Thru age 30 he had a .263/.342/.497 line with a 113 OPS+, 368 HR’s and 1117 RBI, to go with all time great defense in CF.  He was on track to get to 500 HR’s by the age of 35 and he would have been a no doubter with 500 HR’s and stellar defense.  In two years (569 PA’s) he’s hit .190/.295/.369, albeit with 20 HR’s.  He still has time to recover offensively and get to 500 HR’s, but the trend is not his friend.  If he’s hitting in the low .200’s with a low OBP, he likely won’t get the AB’s required to get to 500 HR’s
  • Should he get in?  Yes, for some reason I think he’ll get to 500 HR’s.  Will he get in?  50%

Cleveland

• None.  Justin Masterson was once a future Hall of Famer, then the Red Sox traded him, completely derailing his career.  Losing his chance to pitch to Jason Varitek cost him 300 wins and a plaque.

Detroit

• Miguel Cabrera.  He falls under my 8 full seasons requirements with about 6.5 seasons in the bigs. Considering what he’s done in those 6.5 seasons, and considering his age, he makes my cut.  As long as he doesn’t eat or drink himself out of the league, he’s in rather easily.  He’s about to start his 27 year old season and has a .311/.383/.542 line with a 140 OPS+, 209 HR’s and 753 RBI.  Edgar Martinez didn’t really start his career until he was 27, and has a chance at making the Hall as a DH.  While Cabrera might be moved to DH early he literally has 207 more HR’s than Edgar Martinez at the same point in time.
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in?  65%

• Magglio Ordonez.  Good player for a long time, but not close to the Hall.
  • Should he get in?  No.  Will he get in? <1%
• Johnny Damon. If Damon gets to 3000 hits he’s likely in, if he doesn’t, he probably doesn’t spend too much time on the ballot.  Never considered among the elite players in baseball (0 times in Top 10 for MVP and only 2 ASG’s), Damon’s only great compiling stats are hits.  He had good pop for a leadoff hitter, and will end up with over 400 steals, but 3000 hits is the only “magic number” he has a shot at.  I don’t think he gets there.  His defense in LF at this point is terrible, and he hasn’t played 150 games since 2004.  Once the glove becomes such a liability that he gets taken out of the field, does his bat play at DH?  I doubt it.  His home/road splits in 2009 were drastic, and I don’t see him repeating his 2009 overall numbers.  He’ll need about 4 more seasons to get to 3000 hits assuming no dropoff and no serious injuries.  I don’t see him getting enough AB’s to get there.
  • Should he get in?  No.  Will he get in?  <15%

• Phil Coke.  In.  Oh sorry, this isn’t the “Point to the sky to track flyballs” HOF?  Nevermind then.

Kansas City

• None.  Though maybe Kyle Farnsworth’s career will finally take off in the rotation.

Los Angeles

• Torii Hunter.  No thanks, simply not good enough, and not as good as perceived to be.
  • Should he get in?  No.  Will he get in?  <10%
• Bobby Abreu.  A very solid career, but simply not a Hall of Famer.  Was never a dominating player, and not that the voters are right, but his highest finish in an MVP ballot was 12^th, this past year, which happened to be one of the worst years of his solid career.
  • Should he get in?  No.  Will he get in?  <10%

Minnesota

• Jim Thome.  He’ll get in, 564 HR’s and counting, and never linked to steroids, nor suspected of steroid use, simply “country strong” is how the mediots put it.  While only a DH now, he’s primarily played the field in his career, with 1102 games at 1B and 492 at 3B (there’s a scary thought).
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in?  85% (still 5+ years to wait for any steroids stories to come out)

• Joe Mauer. Too early, but certainly on the right track.

New York

• Alex Rodriguez.  Will be hounded by steroids, but can’t be held out.
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in?  95%

• Derek Jeter.  Another no brainer.
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in? 99%

• Mariano Rivera.  Easiest call for a reliever ever.
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in? 99%
• Jorge Posada.  Count me in the Posada for the Hall fan club.  He truly is one of the greatest offensive catchers of all time.  He’s likely been overshadowed in his own era by Mike Piazza, Ivan Rodriguez, and the monster numbers that have been put up in the last 15 years.  Piazza is better than Posada, but how about Pudge?  Certainly not offensively, which likely surprises a lot of people.  Defensively Pudge is better, but he is certainly no Johnny Bench.  It has long been stated that Pudge threw out a ton of runners by calling a ton of fastballs.  Gee, that’s the kind of guy I want behind the plate.  Back to the offense.  Pudge’s career best OPS+ in  a full season (>100 games for a catcher) is 136, Jorge’s is 153. Pudge has no other full seasons over 130, Posada has 4.  Pudge had a 10 year peak of .313/.354/.514 with a 119 OPS+.  Phenomenal numbers for a catcher.  Jorge’s 10 year peak is .283/.386/.492 with a 129 OPS+.  Over a 10 year span, an OPS+ 10 points higher is very significant.  Simply put, when ranking the catchers of the last 20 years, Piazza is the sure #1, but you can certainly make an argument for Jorge at #2.
  • Should he get in? Yes.  Will he get in?  60%

• CC Sabathia.  As much as pitchers are harder to predict, Sabathia is working on a Hall of Fame career.  He got off to an early start, winning 17 games as a 20 year old, he is an absolute horse, starting 30+ games in 8 of his 9 seasons (and 28 in the other), now has a ring, and has quashed any fears that he couldn’t get it done when it counts.  Going forward, his body is both a blessing and a curse.  The man is huge.   Again, he is ridiculously durable, but as he ages, will his body break down from carrying so much weight, and will he gain more?  Though he is massive, he is very athletic, has a smooth consistent delivery. I’m betting that he’ll remain healthy, productive and become a Hall of Famer.  He has 1 Cy Young, 2 other top 5 finishes, 136 wins (vs. 81 losses) with a 121 ERA+, and will be pitching in front of one of the best offenses in baseball for at least the next 2 years, but likely longer.
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in?  70%

• Mark Teixeira.  Teixeira is 29 and about halfway to 500 HR’s.  He’s certainly had the benefit of playing in Texas for 4.5 years, and now gets to call the Bronx his home for 7 more seasons.  He hit 39 HR’s his first year in the Bronx after a slow start (which is normal), and I can easily see him averaging 40 for the next 4 seasons, which would give him at 402 after his age 34 season.  If he gets there, he’ll be very likely to push that to 500.  With 500 HR’s, a reputation for stellar defense, a good guy with the media and in the clubhouse, and perceived as clean, I think Tex gets in.  While 500 HR’s in the steroid era is no longer a sure think induction, the majority of Tex’s career will be played out after the steroid era.
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in?  50%

Oakland

• None.  Once upon a time it appeared as though Eric Chavez was on his way (though 3B is a tough position to crack the Hall), but his career has been thoroughly derailed by injuries.

Seattle

• Ken Griffey Jr. No doubter and of course he was undoubtedly clean during the steroid era (why is there that perception again?
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in?  99%

• Ichiro.  While he won’t likely compile 3000 hits, Ichiro is a lock for his 9 (and counting) years of baseball in the states.  While probably not quite as good as perceived (118 OPS+), he does things that the BBWAA loves like hit for a high average and gets 200+ hits a year.  He also wins the Gold Glove every year, though in Ichiro’s case it’s likely been deserved.  He has also been a global icon, being the first Japanese position player to star in the states.
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in?  99%

Texas

• Vladimir Guerrero.  While it appears as though Vlad’s days as a monster are over, he has put together a great career so far.  He may or may not get to 500 HR’s (93 away) and likely won’t get to 3000 hits (751 away).  Vlad will get in based on his dominance and his rate stats, as well as zero steroid speculation.   Vlad has been a pretty poor fielder per UZR since 2002, but anecdotally his defense will probably be remembered more favorably.  The first year of UZR he rated an 8.9 and had 4.5 seasons before that in which he was widely regarded as good in the OF.  He also had a cannon for an arm, though not necessarily accurate.  Thru 2009 Vlad has a career .321/.386/.568, 145 OPS+ monster line.  Despite being a free swinger he still has been able to get on base at a great clip.  Over a 10 year peak, Vlad hit .327/.394/.586, 151 OPS+, 353 HR’s, 1136 RBI and 165 steals (though 79 CS).  That’s a Hall of Famer
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in?  96%

Tampa Bay

• None.  The perception of Carl Crawford greatly outweighs the truth of Carl Crawford.

Toronto

• None, though Vernon Wells certainly has a plaque in the horrible contracts Hall of Fame.

Who did I miss, who am I dead wrong on?  If you haven’t checked out the NL edition, be sure to check it out here.

How many future Hall of Famer’s are in the major leagues right now.  Team by team I will identify players who have a chance at getting to Cooperstown down the road. I will not be using Jim Rice as a benchmark, as listing all players who are more qualified than Jim Rice would use up way too much bandwidth. I also will not be including players with less than 8 full years in the bigs, as they are just too far away. Sure, Hanley Ramirez looks like a future Hall of Famer, but so did Nomar Garciaparra and Dwight Gooden after 4 years in the majors. Too much can happen to really predict guys that young and their Hall chances. I will add my 2 cents on whether I think the player should get in, and the odds that they will. Due to the mediocy of the BBWAA, I will not consider anyone to be a 100% lock, the BBWAA’s track record tells me nothing other than they, as a whole, don’t know what the hell they are doing. Today I’ll address the National League, check back for the American League tomorrow.

Arizona Diamondbacks

• None. Although Ian Kennedy could have been traded straight up for Johan Santana and Joe Mauer, so he has to have a Hall of Fame pedigree. Justin Upton is way too young, but would appear to be their best candidate.

Atlanta Braves

• Chipper Jones: No brainer.
  • Should he get in? Absolutely. Will he get in?: 99%
• Billy Wagner: Dominating closer throughout his career, but horrible in the postseason, never led the league in saves, would need a ridiculous end of his career to be considered.
  • Should he get in? No. Will he get in?: <5%

Chicago Cubs

• None. Carlos Zambrano, Derek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Alfonso Soriano will all go down as solid players with nice careers, but unless they find the fountain of Papi and put up monster seasons for the next 5 years, they have no shot.

Cincinnati Reds

• None, not even Aroldis Chapman (sorry mr yankee). Scott Rolen appeared to be on his way, but injuries derailed the train. At the end of his 20’s he had a career .286/.378/.520 line with a 131 OPS+, with 226 HR’s and 831 RBI. He did all of that while providing what is considered to be some of the best defense at 3B of all time. By comparison, Brooks Robinson through his 20’s hit .281/.330/.423 with a 109 OPS+, 134 HR’s and 672 RBI. Robinson didn’t get any better in his 30’s, but was able to match his HR total, putting him at 268. If Rolen could have doubled his from 226 to 452, he’d be a no brainer (along with everything else staying in line.)

Colorado Rockies

• Jason Giambi: Not quite there. Offensively he has the numbers, but he will be held out based on 3 things. 1. Steroids. While many users will someday get in, a guy like Giambi, who aside from steroids isn’t an overwhelming yes, steroids will severely hurt his case. 2. He’s spent over 30% of his career at DH, and doesn’t, nor will he have the counting numbers of a Frank Thomas. 3. When he did play the field, he was terrible (I need to find video of his 113 games in the OF and 70 games at 3B)
  • Should he get in? No. Will he get in? <3%

• Todd Helton: While he will be hurt by playing at Coors, I think he will be the first Rockie to get in. He was undoubtedly helped by his home park, but has been a very good hitter on the road as well. Most hitters hit better at home than on the road anyway, but Coors takes that another step further. Still with a .328/.427/.567 line with a 140 OPS+, Helton should get in. Away from home he has hit .295/.395/.489, he hit .305/.398/.465 against LHP, and by all accounts has been a plus glove, albeit at 1B.
  • Should he get in? Yes. Will he get in? 75%

Florida Marlins

• None. Hanley Ramirez has a long way to go, but is off to a great start.

Houston Astros

• Jeff Fulchino, only because when we were both 12 years old he hit a HR off of me that still hasn’t landed.

• Roy Oswalt. Trending in the wrong direction as the last 2 seasons have been the two worst ERA+s and FIP’s of his career, and in 2009 won just 8 games despite making 30 starts. If he can match the first 9 years of his career in the next 9, he’s in, as that would put him at 274 wins with a 135 ERA+. However, with his recent decline and smallish stature, I highly doubt that.
  • Should he get in? Doubtful, but too far away to truly predict. Will he get in? <15%

• Lance Berkman. The Big Puma is working on a Hall of Fame career. Thru age 33 he has a .299/.412/.555 line with a 147 OPS+ (good for 44^th all time).  His lowest career OPS+ is 130.  At 313 career HR (to go with 1041 RBI), he has a shot at 500 career HR’s, he’d have to average 32 HR’s for the next seasons, not a slam dunk, but not impossible. Despite playing in a hitter’s park, he essentially has the same numbers on the road as at home.  Also, while he has settled in as a full time 1B, he does have over 900 games in the OF in his career.  He’ll be helped in the voting by the fact that the voters already like him, as evidenced by 4 Top 5 finishes in the MVP balloting.  He has also been very outspoken against steroids, which still doesn’t tell me he hasn’t used, but the writers will appreciate it.
  • Should he get in?  Yes, unless he falls of a cliff.  Will he get in? 65%

• Carlos Lee.  A very strong hitter who simply hasn’t been good enough to get serious merit.  He’s had a very solid 10 years in the majors, but is terrible defensively, and with his body type is due to regress.  He simply wasn’t great enough during his peak, nor will he stick around long enough to compile Hall of Fame caliber stats.
  • Should he get in?  No.  Will he get in? <3%

LA Dodgers

• Manny Ramirez.  No doubter
  • Should he get in?  Of course.  Will he get in?  90%, he will have to wait for steroid stigma to wear off.

Milwaukee Brewers

• None. Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder too far away.

New York Mets

• Johan Santana.  Got a semi-late start as he wasn’t a full time starter until age 25, so he may be hurt in the long run as far as counting stats go.  His dominance should get him in as long as he stays healthy and puts together a few more great seasons, along with a few more compiling seasons.  In 6 years since he became a starter he has a 2.86 ERA, 154 ERA+, 1.04 WHIP and 2 CY Young awards (could be 3).  He surely was dominant enough during that stretch that as long as he doesn’t suffer a major injury, he should put up the career numbers needed combined with his peak to put him in.
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in? 70%

• Carlos Beltran.  Beltran has been viewed as an underachiever in his career, but rather unfairly.  He simply has been a well above average offensive player while playing stellar defense in CF for 10 year in the bigs.  He has a career .283/.360/.496 119 OPS+ line, with 273 HR’s, 1086 RBI, and286 steals (only caught 38 times).  Yet despite some great numbers, people seem to have expected even more from Beltran.  After serious knee surgery, Beltran’s career is at a crossroads.  Should he come back to even 85% of what he was, I think he’ll get in, though it may take some time.  He is another player that will be appreciated by sabermatricians, but also has 8 100 RBI seasons, which the old curmudgeon’s will love.  If Beltran’s health doesn’t completely desert him (and playing for the Mets that’s a big if), he should end up with 400+ HR’s,  over 300 steals, and a reputation as a stellar defensive player, which should eventually get him in.
  • Should he get in?  If he comes back healthy, yes.  Will he get in?  50%

Philadelphia Phillies

• Roy Halladay.  148 Wins thru age 32 is lower than I’d expect, but he’s shown no signs of slowing down and the recent switch to the NL can only help.  Tack on another 80 wins or so and he’d be at 228 with ridiculous rate stats, 1 Cy Young and 5 top 5 finishes (so far).
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in?  80%

• Ryan Howard and Chase Utley both got off to late starts and haven’t hit my arbitrary 8 year mark yet, so they are still too far away to rate.  Jimmy Rollins simply hasn’t been good enough to consider

Pittsburgh Pirates

• None.  Not even Peter Gammons’ MVP pick Bobby Crosby, nor Jose Tabata, who some Yankees’ fans think is the next Roberto Clemente.

San Diego Padres

• None.  And what do you expect from a team put together by Kevin Towers? (/SBGL’d).  Adrian Gonzalez only has 4 years in the bigs, but get him out of Petco and I think he’d be on his way.

San Francisco Giants

• None.  Tim Lincecum is simply too far away and their veterans are just overpaid and terrible.

St. Louis

• Albert Pujols. Next question.
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in?  99%
• Matt Holliday. Will be hurt that his early monster seasons happened in Coors.  He’s 29 with 152 career HR’s, 2/3 of which came at home.  He would have to be better in St. Louis than he was in Colorado to have a good chance, and I just don’t see that happening.
  • Should he get in? No.  Will he get in?  <5%

Washington Natinals

• Ivan Rodriguez.  Unless he gets caught up in the steroid mess, he’s a lock.
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in?  90% (I’d say 99%, but it’s a matter of when, not if he’s tied to steroids, either that or he has a tape worm that caused him to lose 50 lbs. of muscle once testing began.)

• Adam Dunn.  Dunn’s biggest supporters will also be his biggest detractors, if that makes any sense.  The sabermetric community loves Adam Dunn’s offense, and is viewed as a much better hitter in that context, than the old school side who think he sucks because of his low average.  The sabermetric community also cares about defense, and Dunn is as bad as it gets.  The sooner he gets to the AL, the better.  He has been a fantastic power hitter since he got to the majors, and at age 29 has a .249/.383/.520 line with 316 HR’s.  Though he likely won’t age well, a move to the AL could see him well into the mid 500’s and possibly into the 600’s for career HR’s.  Will his batting average keep him out if he has a .245/.380/.500 line with 550 HR’s?  10 years ago I’d say yes, but 10-15 years into the future I think he has a good shot, offensively.  The voters haven’t loved Dunn so far, only to top 30 MVP finishes (26^th and 28^th), and that won’t likely change while he’s playing.  While turnover in the BBWAA will help him gain support, those same supporters will also knock his defense.  I think he has a better chance than realized, simply because he could end up in the top 10 all time in HR’s, and as yet, untainted.
  • Should he get in?  If he keeps it up and moves to the AL, yes.  Will he get in? I’m bullish at 65%.

Who did I miss, who am I dead wrong on?  Stay tuned for the breakdown of AL teams coming tomorrow.