Joe Borowski’s league leading 45 saves in 2007 despite a 5.07 ERA is often used to destroy the notion that saves are an important stat.  While it’s true that saves aren’t indicative of how well a pitcher has performed, should Borowski’s season be used as an example of this?

Let me start by saying that looking at any closers stats for a season creates SSS problems.  Borowski threw just 65.2 innings in that 2007 season, CC Sabathia surpassed that number on May 24^th in 2009.  So even looking at important rate stats, a few blowups could potentially skew how we look at a closer, once we’ve decided to look past saves.

Joe Borowski wasn’t quite as bad in 2007 as his 5.07 ERA would suggest.  Simply put, when he was bad, he was terrible.  Borowski gave up 37 earned runs in 2007.  He managed to give up 16, or 43% of those runs in his five losses.  Those five losses covered….wait for it……3.2 innings!  So he gave up 43% of the runs he gave up all year in 5.5% of his innings total.  Remove both those innings and those runs and his ERA in all other outcomes other than a loss is 3.05.  So since he was only truly terrible for 5.5% of his innings, he wasn’t as bad as many (including me several times) would make him out to be.  When he shit the bed, he really shit the bed.  He may not have been Mo, but the ERA, along with the save stat, certainly is misleading isn’t it?  In save situations he had a 3.73 ERA and a 3.85 FIP.  In non-save situations he had a 9.60 ERA, but just a 5.27 FIP.  While he was bad in non-save situations, he was also unlucky.

A closer’s job, for the most part, is to save games, and other than a few major blowups, Borowski was pretty solid.  There are 18.7 billion reasons why saves are a flawed stat, and while on the surface quoting Borowski’s season makes sense, the deeper look at the stats reveal that I’ll probably leave Borowski out of my next “saves are dumb” argument.  Of course, if whomever I’m arguing with thinks saves are worthwhile, I know they clearly haven’t looked into Borowski, so maybe I’ll just keep that piece in my back pocket.

But a few minutes ago I saw a gem on NBC’s Hardball talk, where Red Sox catching instructor Gary Tuck said that Victor Martinez’s struggles catching basestealers are a direct result of his poor instruction in Cleveland. Few will mistaken Cleveland as a world-class organization with the best and brightest minds in baseball, but does the evidence stack up?

In Cleveland, working as a full-time catcher from 2004-2008, Martinez ranged from 18% to a 37% CS in as recent as 2008. Mostly they were in the 20′s, and they’ve clearly trended downward as he’s spent more time DHing and playing 1B in his career. No, he won’t be mistaken for Jose Molina — even back in his Cleveland days he wasn’t considered a great defensive backstop. How much of that is a result of coaching is very difficult to quantify. Still, he did well enough for years that he kept runners at bay. Was there new instruction that took place in those later years in Cleveland that did something to distort his ability to throw ‘em out?

In Cleveland, before the trade, his CS percentage was 15%, a career low. It only got worse in Boston. He manage to snare just 11% of basestealers in the second part of 2009, which is damn close to complete futility.Was it that the bad mechanics and instruction caught up to him? Was it partially due to injury or wear and tear? Maybe having ELBOW SURGERY in 2008 was the main culprit? Should I say that louder? He is still catching under 8% this year, when he’s had a fair amount of time to have Tuck help him iron out mechanics. I mean, maybe he doesn’t “improve over night”, but he’s gotten worse — significantly worse — since joining the Sox.

My guess is Martinez, never a defensive whiz, was losing it a bit before he had elbow surgery. Sure, his instruction may not have been great in Cleveland. Maybe his mechanics had something to do with his fluctuations over the course of time. But it’s more likely that a combination of age, wear an tear, elbow surgery and teams testing him have more to do with his CS% than his instruction in Cleveland. It doesn’t help that most of the pitchers he catches are slow to the plate. Regardless of how good Gary Tuck may be, he’s unlikely to trump the impact of elbow surgery. That’s primarily to blame for Martinez’s struggles, not Cleveland’s coaching staff.

And just to be clear, Boston doesn’t have a good record of catching basestealers. They haven’t had a catcher nail over 30% since 2002 with Doug Mirabelli. Just sayin’. Instead of deflecting blame onto another coaching staff, maybe they should just say, “yep, we’re working on things” and leave it be at that. My guess is after this year, we’ll see Gary’s explanation as completely exposed for what it is — bullshit.

Head over to TYU and check out everyone’s favorite teacher, Matt Imbrogno, and his post on Jeter‘s concerning start to the season. Essentially, as Matt points out, Jeter isn’t walking (at 3%), he’s swinging at pretty much everything, which isn’t the worst thing in the world considering his high contact rates, but means he loses effectiveness  at his spot in the order with such an approach. He needs to walk more.

But what about when he does make contact? Well unfortunately, the contact that he’s made hasn’t very hard, although it’s been good enough to keep his average over .300 despite a low BABip. Take a look at his GB/FB splits. He’s hitting 73% of his balls on the ground (mostly to shortstop, it would seem) and his line drive rate is 11.5%, about half of its usual rate. He also hasn’t been as good hitting the ball the opposite way, as you can see here and to some extent, on the graph below (thanks to TexasLeaguers.com).

For some odd reason, Jeter’s decided to not take the first pitch as the leadoff hitter. At this point last year, Derek Jeter, on a 0-0 count swung 21.1% of the time. This year? 53.9% (check my math, I added and divided by hand). You can argue that it’s worked out, as he has 6 hits in 15 at bats when he swings, good for a .400 average. Still, I think it’s a hinderance and it will catch up to him.

It’s too early to make much out of it, but according to Pitch Values, Jeter’s struggled across the board compared to last year — not surprising if you’ve seen him play. I’ve noticed through the eye test (caution: I could be wrong) that Jeter appears to be off on fastballs, either fouling them away or chopping the ball weakly, which shows up with his low line drive rate. That’s probably just a timing issue that should correct itself quickly, but it’s certainly something worth checking as the season progresses.

So, if Jeter loses his bat speed rapidly, that’s a huge, huge problem since he can’t cheat on pitches with much effectiveness, mostly due to his average power. He’s also struggled considerably against left-handers this season, posting a line of .259/.286/.444. I don’t think any of this is necessarily a sign of Jeter’s demise. He’s been too consistent for too long for this to really worry people. Still, the drastic change in his approach and his lack of patience and hard contact are things to keep a tab on. Derek absolutely needs to take a few pitches to be an effective leadoff hitter. Hopefully this is just a SSS, timing issue. He’ll be a Yankee for the next few years regardless, so if this is the Jeter we see by the end of the year, it’ll be a rough, rough stretch.

[Note: This was written before Thursday night's game.]

Although the majority of last year’s World Series team remains unchanged for the 2010 season, there were some notable “losses”. The first names are obvious — Damon, Matsui, Melky — but I’m going to also look at some of the less-heralded contributors to the 2009 season as well and check out a progress report.

Brian Bruney, Washington: Brian Bruney cracks me up. From thinking that his struggles were related to the uniform number, to calling out K-Rod’s antics, to managing to walk an entire side on just 12 pitches, Bruney was a personal favorite of mine. He had good stuff, but he had no idea where it was going. Well, Bruney shipped off to Washington, for whom the Nats they gave us Rule V draft pick Jamie Hoffmann. Bruney is really rounding into shape for the Nats this year. He’s still out of shape, still wild and still hated by fans. Glad he feels comfortable in his new environment. On the year, in 10.2 innings, Bruney has walked 12 (!) batters, given up 9 hits, 7 runs (6 earned) and struck out 8. According to Wikipedia, Bruney once was an extra on  Arnold movie “Kindergarten Cop”. “Put that cookie down, now!”

Mike Dunn, AAA Gwinnett Braves: We didn’t get to see a lot of Dunn last year. As a September call-up, we did get to watch Dunn throw mid-90′s fastballs right into the backs of opposing batters. So that was fun. A lefty with good stuff will always be a valued commodity, so he, along with minor leaguer “Nobody Beats the Viz,” Melky and Dunn were traded for Javier Vazquez. Dunn has been in Atlanta’s AAA Gwinnett team and he’s dazzled thus far. In 9.1 innings, he has 12 strikeouts, 1 earned run, 6 hits and 3 BB’s. If he keeps this up, he’ll be in Atlanta pretty soon, especially with Jo-Jo Reyes and his ERA over 24 (!) struggling to get outs. Surprisingly, the rest of the Atlanta bullpen has been pretty good. Still, you’d think he’d be the first guy called up in that system.

Edwar Ramirez, Oakland, now AAA: Since moving to Oakland, there are whispers Edwar is now up to 115 lbs., which is great. He might be able to add a tick or two to that Trevor Hoffman-repetoir he has. No, seriously. He’s basically Trevor Hoffman now, which is both awesome and sad. Both have a fastball that will sit around 86-88 with a bugs bunny change. Here’s the difference: Edwar actually throws his changeup, you know, his one effective pitch. Hoffman does not. For the year, Edwar has walked 8 guys in 10 innings and given up 6 runs (5 earned). At least he can add 9 strikeouts to that. [Edit: He's now in AAA after being exposed for what he is.]

Chien-Ming Wang, Washington: Oh boy, I remember this one. CMW had been a rock for the Yanks for the dark years, years in which they relied upon overpriced bedwetters and he became the defacto ace, even if he’s no better than a number 2 starter. His freak injury running the bases in Houston, the poor conditioning program the Yankees recommended, and his return to the rotation signalling Hughes’ push to the bullpen were all painful to watch. The Yankees were wise not to give him a long-term deal; he’d had a troubling history of injuries and it’s probably best that he return in Washington — a place that seemingly has little expectation of greatness. He’ll be back sometime in May or June if all goes well.

Brett Tomko, Free Agent: One of the more interesting athletes in the major leagues, Tomko has either chosen to pursue art (he’s a good painter), or he’s busy fucking his ex-Playboy Playmate wife. Of course, he was less-than-interesting when playing in for the Yanks last season, putting up an ERA of over 5 while hardly seeing any action. He complained, was cut and as so often happens, beat us up after signing with the A’s (his first start).

Jose Veras, AAA New Orleans Zephyrs: I don’t think anyone misses Jose. Remember when he became the set-up man after Farnsworth left? Man, that seems like forever ago. He was actually pretty good. Well, that didn’t last. Veras flamed out in April of last season, resembling something like Jo-Jo Reyes’ 2010. By June, the Yankees were like, “Well fuck this,” and dropped his ass to Scranton. Eventually he was DFA’d, the Indians picked him up, he left to eat some pancakes or something and never came back. Lo and behold, he’s in Florida! Well, he was with the Marlins. But then, as usual, he sucked and they sent him to AAA. As a reliever for the New Orleans Zephyrs, Veras has an ERA of 19.29 in just over 2 innings.

Phil Coke, Detroit: Coke was sent off in the Granderson trade, where he injured his hand in the car ride to the airport after repeatedly hitting it on the roof to point out that there were planes above. Since joining Detroit, Coke, a lefty, has actually pitched fairly well. He’s yielded too many hits (9 hits/9) and his strand rate of 84% is not going to hold up, but he’s struck out 11 with 6 walks for an ERA of 1.38! Again, Coke’s been getting really lucky. That’s not going to hold, though you could do worse than Coke as a LOOGY.

Ian Kennedy, Ariona: This is about the one guy I was disappointed to lose in our winter trades. No, he’s not going to become Greg Maddux as he was touted. No, he’ll never be an ace. He might be a good back-end starter in the AL East, probably a #4 or #5 starter. Still, after having an aneurism and languishing in AAA after his rough 2008, I wanted to see IPK up in the Bronx. Well, he landed in Arizona, where he’ll probably end the year as their 3rd best starter behind Haren and Webb (if he comes back and is effective). So far in the desert, IPK has impressed. His first two outings didn’t see him escape after 5 (while also throwing a lot of pitches) and he was hit around, but his last two have been pretty solid. He just threw an 8 inning, 2 run gem on the 24th against the hard-hitting Phillies. I wouldn’t expect that, but an ERA in the low 4′s with limited walks and solid strikeout totals in the NL West is very possible. He still could be a good pitcher, and considering his salary, will likely be one of the more valuable pitchers on that team for a while.

——-

Johnny Damon, Detroit: I know we like to bash Scott Boras for misreading the market and sacking Johnny Damon with a shit deal for the 2010 season, but it’s Damon’s fault. He had offers, and while we don’t know exactly what Boras recommended, we should also realize that Damon has final say. He didn’t take the better offer, overplayed his hand, Boras took the blame (as he knows it looks better for his clients — remember the A-Rod fiasco?) and Damon is now in Detroit, where you can argue he’s underpaid. Anyway, he slumed for a bit but appears to be hitting well now. Damon’s currently .321/.430/.423 with the Tigers, though he doesn’t yet have a home run in the 22 games he’s played. I’d be pretty shocked if you see Damon repeat his numbers from last year, but if you look at his home/away splits from 2009, his away numbers were pretty much right in line with his career averages. He’ll still be a good, reliable player in Detroit. Still, he’s getting older, doesn’t play 145+ games, is an awful defensive left fielder, and doesn’t have the bat that profiles at many other spots. Nick Johnson, all things considered, is a better move.

Melky Cabrera, Atlanta: Well, he’s probably still on Suicide Watch in Atlanta. The lack of porn stars in the Peach is really wearing on Leche. He’s been just putrid for the Braves, hitting .197/.298/.225. Damn, that’s unbelievably bad. Of course, we know Melky really isn’t that bad, but he’s not going to be great shakes for the Braves. If you really think about it, we gave up a wild LOOGY, a 4th outfielder, a very young but very promising pitcher and salary relief for a 200 K, 200 IP lock. Just because Javy is struggling now doesn’t mean it wasn’t a good deal. In fact, the only major moving piece that’s big-league at this point is currently doing worse than Javy. Just sayin’. Expect Cabrera to get up to .270/.330 with some extra power as he hits his prime (maybe 20 home runs), but let’s not pretend we gave up Willie Mays for Kyle Farnsworth. He’s a guy that’s fringe-average at everything and excells at nothing.

Angel Berroa, SF Giants AAA team: You’re not going to believe this, but Berroa actually found a job. Brian Sabean continues to amaze by signing terrible veterans to garbage contracts. I’m not talking about the Zito deal, either. While that was certainly beyon the pale of what he was worth, I mean more Aubrey Huff, Rich Aurilla, Aaron Rowand, Edgar Renteria-type stuff. Sure, Berroa probably signed a minor league deal for peanuts. He’s still overpaid. That’s how much shit Berroa eats. It’s funny how Berroa received the AL ROY award over Matsui because Matsui was a Japanese professional but Ichiro and Hideo Nomo weren’t subject to the same standard. Fuck Berroa.

Jose Molina, Toronto: Molina may not be able to hit a baseball or outrun a sloth in an attack, but he’s a fine defensive catcher. He actually threw out four Rays on the basepaths in ONE GAME last week! That’s damn impressive, although I’m perfectly happy with Francisco Cervelli’s unsustainable offensive performance and good defense. Backup catcher, meh.

Xavier Nady, Chicago Cubs: After playing an entire 7 games with the Yankees, Xavier Nady received his second Tommy John Surgery on his throwing elbow. We could have had another Johnny Damon! We missed out on this guy! But seriously, he signed with the Cubs for a one-year deal and he’s hittign .200/.333/.300 for the year. His BABip is very low at .2__, so expect some sort of improvement, though watch out for his contact rate, which is pretty low at 74%. I have no idea how his defense is, but I can’t imagine it’s better than average. He may still be feeling the effects of surgery, so I’m hesitant to think he’ll be very good for the Cubs this year, though he’s been pretty solid in his career.

Shelly Duncan, AAA Columbus Clippers: Gone are the days of Shelley Smash, a beloved AAAA player that never learned how to hit anything but fastballs. He could mash those, though. Eventually, pitchers realized that you should throw him balls that he could not hit. It was pretty successful, since he’s still in the minors after having been drafted in 2001. For the Columbus, the Indians’ AAA affiliate, Duncan is hitting .260/.375/.411 in 20 games.

Hideki Matsui, Pacific Time Zone Angels of Los Angeles of Anaheim: Although the world’s largest porn collection has migrated out west to Anaheim (of the Pacific Coast Time Zone Angels of Los Angeles of Anaheim, to be more exact), and we’re all sad to see him/it go, it had to be done. Sure, he was “clutch” and a “True Yankee” but the dude had prosthetic knees and wished to play the outfield. No way are we stupid enough to say yes to that. Curtis Granderson is a huge improvement over Matsui, although so far in the young season the shogun has outperformed Grandmaster Flash. Matsui’s line: .274/.374/.488. Not bad! Looks just like we’re used to seeing, though his K-rate is up to a career worst 21.4%, something to watch out for. The Angels have even let Matsui play a few games in left field. I wasn’t around to see it, but Mike Axisa of RAB said he had the range of “a potted plant,” so I’ll defer to him on this one. Sorry to see you leave, Matsui, but it’s better to let the player go a year too soon than a year too late.

Jerry Hairston Jr, San Diego: Jack of all trades, master of none Jerry Hairston Jr. left the Yankees to be the utility man of the San Diego Padres, where he’ll get more playing time and play alongside his brother, Scott Hairston. Although he’s played SS, 2B and RF, Hairston Jr. has yet to hit much. He’s put up a line of .217/.230/.233. Not even San Diego can put up with that in a starting role.

Eric Hinske, Atlanta: Another utility guy, this time picked up in Atlanta, where he’s just about the one of an entire lineup of Braves to not look like Rey Ordonez at the plate. Shockingly, Hinske is hitting .318/.375/.500 in Hotlanta. If he really cared about his teammates, he’d somehow find a way to get Melky some top-notch whores to break him out of his slump.

Cody Ransom, Free Agent: Likely homeless, Cody Ransom can be found jumping boxes in abandoned warehouses in industrial-zoned ghettos. I mean, that guy sucks at baseball. There’s no way someone would pay him money to play baseball. Just no way. I bet he’d be a solid mascot. Maybe he’s doing that. Wait a second!  I’ve just been informed that he’s playing for Philadelphia’s AAA affiliate in Allentown, PA. So, yep. Basically what I said stands.

So, as you can see, we didn’t really lose too much. Damon and Matsui are playing at levels we’d expect to see them play. Although Granderson, Johnson and Vazquez have all underpeformed to varying degrees, I still think those were solid moves, and as they start to hit their career norms, we’ll forget all about Matsui, Damon, Melky, IPK, CMW and others.

How many future Hall of Famers are in the major leagues right now? I will go team by team and identify players who have a chance at getting to Cooperstown someday. I will not be using Jim Rice as a benchmark, as listing all players who are more qualified than Jim Rice would use up way too much bandwidth. I also will not be including players with less than 8 full years in the bigs, as they are just too far away. Sure, Hanley Ramirez looks like a future Hall of Famer, but so did Nomar after 4 years in the majors. Too much can happen to really predict guys that young and their Hall chances. I will add my 2 cents on whether I think the player should get in, and the odds that they will. Due to the mediocy of the BBWAA, I will not consider anyone to be a 100% lock, the BBWAA’s track record tells me nothing other than they, as a whole, don’t know what they are doing.  Today I’ll go thru the American League, for the National League click here.

Baltimore

• None.  Though I believe PECOTA has already inducted Matt Wieters.  Miguel Tejada had a great peak, but has fallen quite a bit since testing began and won’t be able to overcome steroids with great career numbers.  Without steroids and with a longer peak, allowing him to compile more career numbers would have given him a strong chance, but as it is, he has to be out.

Boston

• Surprisingly no great candidates
• Josh Beckett simply hasn’t been good enough in the regular season, if he repeats his next 8 years to match his first 8, he’ll have 212 wins, and only one Top 10 finish in the Cy Young voting.  He would have to get much better over the next 8 years, and there’s not much that says he will, as he has been pretty inconsistent, and nagging injury prone throughout his career.
  • Should he get in?  No. Will he get in? <1%
• Victor Martinez is 30 with 111 career HR’s and will likely be a full time 1B shortly.
  • Should he get in?  No. Will he get in? <1%
• Adrian Beltre, if he could stick around and get 3000 hits would be an interesting case.  Thru 11 full seasons he’s been great (offensively) only once, while providing stellar defense.  Because he was in the bigs at 19, he’ll be 31 this year with only 1300 hits to go to 3000.  At 150 hits per year, he’d get to 3000 in under 9 years.  Not likely, but possible nonetheless.  Would that get him in?  It probably would, but I’m assuming he just won’t get there, or even close.  As soon as his defense slips to even league average, he’s not a viable starter, and since his bat won’t play elsewhere, he won’t likely won’t get the AB’s required to compile hits.
  • Should he get in?  No.  Will he get in?  5%
• David Ortiz.  Not even close.

Chicago

• Mark Buerhle.  Has a solid chance to pile up 250+ wins, but simply never great enough for consideration.
  • Should he get in? No.  Will he get in? <5%.  Could pull a Jamie Moyer and approach 300 wins, but I just don’t see that happening.
• Paul Konerko.  Solid 1B but never dominating and won’t compile HOF numbers
  • Should he get in? No.  Will he get in? <1%

• Andruw Jones.  Was well on his way but possibly ate himself out of consideration.  Got to the Majors at 19, was widely considered the best defensive CF since Willie Mays (whether true or not is up to argument).  Thru age 30 he had a .263/.342/.497 line with a 113 OPS+, 368 HR’s and 1117 RBI, to go with all time great defense in CF.  He was on track to get to 500 HR’s by the age of 35 and he would have been a no doubter with 500 HR’s and stellar defense.  In two years (569 PA’s) he’s hit .190/.295/.369, albeit with 20 HR’s.  He still has time to recover offensively and get to 500 HR’s, but the trend is not his friend.  If he’s hitting in the low .200’s with a low OBP, he likely won’t get the AB’s required to get to 500 HR’s
  • Should he get in?  Yes, for some reason I think he’ll get to 500 HR’s.  Will he get in?  50%

Cleveland

• None.  Justin Masterson was once a future Hall of Famer, then the Red Sox traded him, completely derailing his career.  Losing his chance to pitch to Jason Varitek cost him 300 wins and a plaque.

Detroit

• Miguel Cabrera.  He falls under my 8 full seasons requirements with about 6.5 seasons in the bigs. Considering what he’s done in those 6.5 seasons, and considering his age, he makes my cut.  As long as he doesn’t eat or drink himself out of the league, he’s in rather easily.  He’s about to start his 27 year old season and has a .311/.383/.542 line with a 140 OPS+, 209 HR’s and 753 RBI.  Edgar Martinez didn’t really start his career until he was 27, and has a chance at making the Hall as a DH.  While Cabrera might be moved to DH early he literally has 207 more HR’s than Edgar Martinez at the same point in time.
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in?  65%

• Magglio Ordonez.  Good player for a long time, but not close to the Hall.
  • Should he get in?  No.  Will he get in? <1%
• Johnny Damon. If Damon gets to 3000 hits he’s likely in, if he doesn’t, he probably doesn’t spend too much time on the ballot.  Never considered among the elite players in baseball (0 times in Top 10 for MVP and only 2 ASG’s), Damon’s only great compiling stats are hits.  He had good pop for a leadoff hitter, and will end up with over 400 steals, but 3000 hits is the only “magic number” he has a shot at.  I don’t think he gets there.  His defense in LF at this point is terrible, and he hasn’t played 150 games since 2004.  Once the glove becomes such a liability that he gets taken out of the field, does his bat play at DH?  I doubt it.  His home/road splits in 2009 were drastic, and I don’t see him repeating his 2009 overall numbers.  He’ll need about 4 more seasons to get to 3000 hits assuming no dropoff and no serious injuries.  I don’t see him getting enough AB’s to get there.
  • Should he get in?  No.  Will he get in?  <15%

• Phil Coke.  In.  Oh sorry, this isn’t the “Point to the sky to track flyballs” HOF?  Nevermind then.

Kansas City

• None.  Though maybe Kyle Farnsworth’s career will finally take off in the rotation.

Los Angeles

• Torii Hunter.  No thanks, simply not good enough, and not as good as perceived to be.
  • Should he get in?  No.  Will he get in?  <10%
• Bobby Abreu.  A very solid career, but simply not a Hall of Famer.  Was never a dominating player, and not that the voters are right, but his highest finish in an MVP ballot was 12^th, this past year, which happened to be one of the worst years of his solid career.
  • Should he get in?  No.  Will he get in?  <10%

Minnesota

• Jim Thome.  He’ll get in, 564 HR’s and counting, and never linked to steroids, nor suspected of steroid use, simply “country strong” is how the mediots put it.  While only a DH now, he’s primarily played the field in his career, with 1102 games at 1B and 492 at 3B (there’s a scary thought).
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in?  85% (still 5+ years to wait for any steroids stories to come out)

• Joe Mauer. Too early, but certainly on the right track.

New York

• Alex Rodriguez.  Will be hounded by steroids, but can’t be held out.
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in?  95%

• Derek Jeter.  Another no brainer.
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in? 99%

• Mariano Rivera.  Easiest call for a reliever ever.
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in? 99%
• Jorge Posada.  Count me in the Posada for the Hall fan club.  He truly is one of the greatest offensive catchers of all time.  He’s likely been overshadowed in his own era by Mike Piazza, Ivan Rodriguez, and the monster numbers that have been put up in the last 15 years.  Piazza is better than Posada, but how about Pudge?  Certainly not offensively, which likely surprises a lot of people.  Defensively Pudge is better, but he is certainly no Johnny Bench.  It has long been stated that Pudge threw out a ton of runners by calling a ton of fastballs.  Gee, that’s the kind of guy I want behind the plate.  Back to the offense.  Pudge’s career best OPS+ in  a full season (>100 games for a catcher) is 136, Jorge’s is 153. Pudge has no other full seasons over 130, Posada has 4.  Pudge had a 10 year peak of .313/.354/.514 with a 119 OPS+.  Phenomenal numbers for a catcher.  Jorge’s 10 year peak is .283/.386/.492 with a 129 OPS+.  Over a 10 year span, an OPS+ 10 points higher is very significant.  Simply put, when ranking the catchers of the last 20 years, Piazza is the sure #1, but you can certainly make an argument for Jorge at #2.
  • Should he get in? Yes.  Will he get in?  60%

• CC Sabathia.  As much as pitchers are harder to predict, Sabathia is working on a Hall of Fame career.  He got off to an early start, winning 17 games as a 20 year old, he is an absolute horse, starting 30+ games in 8 of his 9 seasons (and 28 in the other), now has a ring, and has quashed any fears that he couldn’t get it done when it counts.  Going forward, his body is both a blessing and a curse.  The man is huge.   Again, he is ridiculously durable, but as he ages, will his body break down from carrying so much weight, and will he gain more?  Though he is massive, he is very athletic, has a smooth consistent delivery. I’m betting that he’ll remain healthy, productive and become a Hall of Famer.  He has 1 Cy Young, 2 other top 5 finishes, 136 wins (vs. 81 losses) with a 121 ERA+, and will be pitching in front of one of the best offenses in baseball for at least the next 2 years, but likely longer.
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in?  70%

• Mark Teixeira.  Teixeira is 29 and about halfway to 500 HR’s.  He’s certainly had the benefit of playing in Texas for 4.5 years, and now gets to call the Bronx his home for 7 more seasons.  He hit 39 HR’s his first year in the Bronx after a slow start (which is normal), and I can easily see him averaging 40 for the next 4 seasons, which would give him at 402 after his age 34 season.  If he gets there, he’ll be very likely to push that to 500.  With 500 HR’s, a reputation for stellar defense, a good guy with the media and in the clubhouse, and perceived as clean, I think Tex gets in.  While 500 HR’s in the steroid era is no longer a sure think induction, the majority of Tex’s career will be played out after the steroid era.
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in?  50%

Oakland

• None.  Once upon a time it appeared as though Eric Chavez was on his way (though 3B is a tough position to crack the Hall), but his career has been thoroughly derailed by injuries.

Seattle

• Ken Griffey Jr. No doubter and of course he was undoubtedly clean during the steroid era (why is there that perception again?
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in?  99%

• Ichiro.  While he won’t likely compile 3000 hits, Ichiro is a lock for his 9 (and counting) years of baseball in the states.  While probably not quite as good as perceived (118 OPS+), he does things that the BBWAA loves like hit for a high average and gets 200+ hits a year.  He also wins the Gold Glove every year, though in Ichiro’s case it’s likely been deserved.  He has also been a global icon, being the first Japanese position player to star in the states.
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in?  99%

Texas

• Vladimir Guerrero.  While it appears as though Vlad’s days as a monster are over, he has put together a great career so far.  He may or may not get to 500 HR’s (93 away) and likely won’t get to 3000 hits (751 away).  Vlad will get in based on his dominance and his rate stats, as well as zero steroid speculation.   Vlad has been a pretty poor fielder per UZR since 2002, but anecdotally his defense will probably be remembered more favorably.  The first year of UZR he rated an 8.9 and had 4.5 seasons before that in which he was widely regarded as good in the OF.  He also had a cannon for an arm, though not necessarily accurate.  Thru 2009 Vlad has a career .321/.386/.568, 145 OPS+ monster line.  Despite being a free swinger he still has been able to get on base at a great clip.  Over a 10 year peak, Vlad hit .327/.394/.586, 151 OPS+, 353 HR’s, 1136 RBI and 165 steals (though 79 CS).  That’s a Hall of Famer
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in?  96%

Tampa Bay

• None.  The perception of Carl Crawford greatly outweighs the truth of Carl Crawford.

Toronto

• None, though Vernon Wells certainly has a plaque in the horrible contracts Hall of Fame.

Who did I miss, who am I dead wrong on?  If you haven’t checked out the NL edition, be sure to check it out here.

So far this year Girardi has been hammered for his Larussa-esque bullpen matchup baseball. Detractors say he over-manages and  isn’t “feeling” the situation or the pitcher, and that he mindlessly looks at a bunch of statistics, chooses an algorithm he thinks works in the Yankeee favor. Sure, Joe’s somewhat exhausting bullpen style can be grating, but having looked at the last two years, I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt most of the time considering how effective the ‘pen has been and that Girardi has been the anti-Torre (he’s awake!). Let’s take a look at last night.

Phil Hughes surprisingly gets the call to work the 6th inning with a pitch count above 100 and general command struggles. He manages to retire the first two hitters without much difficulty. Luke Scott, the lefty, now steps to the plate. Phil leaves and in steps Boone Logan, or just one more reason everyone hates Javy. Ben Kabak at RAB does a good job explaining the ins and outs of the Logan-to-Scott decision at result. Personally, I don’t mind that Logan came in. I was thrilled Hughes was able to make it that far without serious damage, Scott isn’t a great hitter against lefties and Logan is a true LOOGY. Sometimes you get burned making the right decisions.

With a guy on 1st after Logan’s walk, the lightly-used David Robertson stood upon Bradenia. Here’s where we confound the crux of the issue: when does the long-term planning trump the situational judgment of the game? Robertson started off with two strikes to the first hitter he faced, Ty Wiggington. On the third pitch he drills him. Awful at-bat. There’s no way to sugarcoat it. Many a Yankee fan immediately said to pull Robertson after that pitch (which put the Orioles in scoring positions, down 2-1). “He doesn’t have command, this is going to end badly,” they said. Well, they were right in a sense. Three runs came in to score.

But they were also wrong. D-Rob should have pitched there and he should have continued, even with his struggles. You need to hedge the long-term needs of the team with the balance of the short-term. Robertson has thrown 6 or less pitches in almost half of his 7 appearances. Perhaps one of the reasons he’s struggled is how he’s been used, or, rather, not used. Pitchers need to pitch to stay sharp. Throwing to one batter and hitting the hay doesn’t do much. We can’t have it both ways to complain that Girardi underused  Robertson and then later complain that he overused him by letting him see more than one batter. Our bullpen will soon round into shape, despite the ugly present ERA of 5.26 (non-Mo division). It’s one of the problems that comes when your starting pitchers generally work deep into games and you have to use a lot of different guy in different spots. I never want to see the team “give up” a game — but if I may be frank, the bullpen was just one part of what went wrong. The baserunning was awful, the defense was abhorrent and the offense missed opportunities. It wasn’t all the bullpen’s fault. You hate to lose, but getting a player some reps trumps the value of winning one game, particularly if that helps him round into shape to win multiple games. It’s a necessary evil.

We’d also be wise to remember that last year’s April bullpen featured such luminaries as Jose Veras, Edwar Ramirez, Brett Tomko, Jonathon Albala–Albala-not-gonna-work-here-any-longer and Brian Bruney. Bullpens are fluid units. If the bullpen continues to struggle at this time next month, there’s cause for concern. Robertson still has options, Park wouldn’t be hard to get rid of if he can’t chop it (UCWIDT), Marte has competition with Logan in AAA. Beyond that, there are some live arms like Romulo Sanchez and Mark Melancon and you could even see SWB starters Zach McAllister, Jeremy Bleich and Ivan Nova depending on how things shake out. Every year our bullpen looks different in April. I, for one, think Robertson will form into shape with more innings regularlity and soon we’ll be joking about this, attributing these early season woes to nothing of consequence.

We need to remember that it’s a marathon, not a sprint. It may suck to watch guys get lit up early in the season, but we may ultimately be better for it.

For all sorts of reasons, Yankee fans love Frankie Cervelli. For some of the girls, he’s dreamy with those beautiful wine-bar eyes. For the fellas, he’s an animated, enthusiastic defensive-minded catcher. All the more impressive is that Cervelli is currently hitting .429/.529/.500 this year, certainly earning his keep.

Of course, this is in 18 plate appearances and nothing seems to suggest Cervelli will be able to maintain any Mauerian production at the plate. Still, for a defensive backup catcher, Cervelli has held his own against big league pitching in his 50 games as a Yankee, posting a line of .301/.328/.372 in just under 125 plate appearances. Given that he’d had only 221 games as a minor leaguer, that’s quite impressive. His entire career is a small sample (h/t Jose), but for shit’s and giggles, let’s take a look at the numbers and try to deduce what we can expect from Cervelli going forward.

Cervelli was signed by the Yankees as a 17-year-old pitcher and infielder out of Venezuela back in 2003. Yep, he was converted to be a catcher and then sent to the DSL leagues in 2003 and 2004, where they thought his makeup and strong arm would be a good fit. Certainly this mirrors parts of Jorge Posada’s early playing career. Anyway, he struggled in his 2005 stateside debut, hitting .190/.300/.276 in 24 games in the GCL. Then in 2006 at Short Season Staten Island, he went for .309/.297/.426 and continued his hot performance into 2007 in Hi-A Tampa, knocking .279/.387/.397. 2008 again showed that Cervelli was a good contact hitter, able to draw a walk and had little power; he hit .308/.411/.374. Here’s the problem — he’s only played over 50 games once in his entire professional career and has a total of 58 games at AA or higher. Still, I think we may be able to take a bit from this.

Chances are Cervelli won’t be able to put up an OBP of anything close to .370 — .300-.330 seems more likely. Guys that show minimal power — particularly when playing in a powerhouse lineup like the Yankees’ — aren’t going to walk as much unless they have a fantastic eye. Cervelli’s not a hacker with zero on-base skills, but he’s not going to elicit Nick Johnson comparisons, either. You’re also unlikely to see a continuation of his 2010 walk rate (16%) or a reversal, like his 2009 rate (2%). Again, this should adjust itself to a rate of somewhere between 8% and 12%, though I’d be more comfortable going on the low end, given his place in the lineup. He’s going to see a lot of strikes, which may bode well for a contact hitter, though it’ll be tough for him to maintain an 11% or less K-rate. His minors rate is generally around 20%. First thing you’ll notice about the early season’s gaudy numbers is his BABip. It’s .462. Wow! His current contact rate on swings is 100%. Unfortunately, we don’t have data on swing percentages in the minors, but I’m going to venture a guess and say his contact rates were quite good.

If you take a quick look on Texas Leaguer’s PitchFX data, Cervelli, since 2007 (the first point of their data), appears to like balls on the inside part of the plate, but frequently takes pitches on the outer half.

All in all, with a likely stabilization of peripherals, an average of anywhere from .270-.290 with an OBP of .310-.330 and a SLG rate of about .375 sounds about right. Cervelli probably isn’t going to improve much with power or discipline, and given his inflated peripherals, is probably going to fall back to Earth with the stick. His average will drop, it’s just a question of what his BABip levels at (we don’t really know at this point where that average will be).

So while it’s unlikely Cervelli will ever be more than a decent-hitting backup catcher with great defense, we tend to forget and perhaps take for granted how valuable that can be, particularly for a team with lots of money tied up into players that will soon be in their 30′s and an older catcher that will only catch around 110 games. For a few hundred thousand dollars, the Yankees are getting tons of value out of Cervelli, even if he isn’t an offensive wunderkind. They also guarantee themselves a reliable player, which can better serve as a bridge from Posada to Romine/Montero. Cervelli’s value goes beyond numbers.

How many future Hall of Famer’s are in the major leagues right now.  Team by team I will identify players who have a chance at getting to Cooperstown down the road. I will not be using Jim Rice as a benchmark, as listing all players who are more qualified than Jim Rice would use up way too much bandwidth. I also will not be including players with less than 8 full years in the bigs, as they are just too far away. Sure, Hanley Ramirez looks like a future Hall of Famer, but so did Nomar Garciaparra and Dwight Gooden after 4 years in the majors. Too much can happen to really predict guys that young and their Hall chances. I will add my 2 cents on whether I think the player should get in, and the odds that they will. Due to the mediocy of the BBWAA, I will not consider anyone to be a 100% lock, the BBWAA’s track record tells me nothing other than they, as a whole, don’t know what the hell they are doing. Today I’ll address the National League, check back for the American League tomorrow.

Arizona Diamondbacks

• None. Although Ian Kennedy could have been traded straight up for Johan Santana and Joe Mauer, so he has to have a Hall of Fame pedigree. Justin Upton is way too young, but would appear to be their best candidate.

Atlanta Braves

• Chipper Jones: No brainer.
  • Should he get in? Absolutely. Will he get in?: 99%
• Billy Wagner: Dominating closer throughout his career, but horrible in the postseason, never led the league in saves, would need a ridiculous end of his career to be considered.
  • Should he get in? No. Will he get in?: <5%

Chicago Cubs

• None. Carlos Zambrano, Derek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Alfonso Soriano will all go down as solid players with nice careers, but unless they find the fountain of Papi and put up monster seasons for the next 5 years, they have no shot.

Cincinnati Reds

• None, not even Aroldis Chapman (sorry mr yankee). Scott Rolen appeared to be on his way, but injuries derailed the train. At the end of his 20’s he had a career .286/.378/.520 line with a 131 OPS+, with 226 HR’s and 831 RBI. He did all of that while providing what is considered to be some of the best defense at 3B of all time. By comparison, Brooks Robinson through his 20’s hit .281/.330/.423 with a 109 OPS+, 134 HR’s and 672 RBI. Robinson didn’t get any better in his 30’s, but was able to match his HR total, putting him at 268. If Rolen could have doubled his from 226 to 452, he’d be a no brainer (along with everything else staying in line.)

Colorado Rockies

• Jason Giambi: Not quite there. Offensively he has the numbers, but he will be held out based on 3 things. 1. Steroids. While many users will someday get in, a guy like Giambi, who aside from steroids isn’t an overwhelming yes, steroids will severely hurt his case. 2. He’s spent over 30% of his career at DH, and doesn’t, nor will he have the counting numbers of a Frank Thomas. 3. When he did play the field, he was terrible (I need to find video of his 113 games in the OF and 70 games at 3B)
  • Should he get in? No. Will he get in? <3%

• Todd Helton: While he will be hurt by playing at Coors, I think he will be the first Rockie to get in. He was undoubtedly helped by his home park, but has been a very good hitter on the road as well. Most hitters hit better at home than on the road anyway, but Coors takes that another step further. Still with a .328/.427/.567 line with a 140 OPS+, Helton should get in. Away from home he has hit .295/.395/.489, he hit .305/.398/.465 against LHP, and by all accounts has been a plus glove, albeit at 1B.
  • Should he get in? Yes. Will he get in? 75%

Florida Marlins

• None. Hanley Ramirez has a long way to go, but is off to a great start.

Houston Astros

• Jeff Fulchino, only because when we were both 12 years old he hit a HR off of me that still hasn’t landed.

• Roy Oswalt. Trending in the wrong direction as the last 2 seasons have been the two worst ERA+s and FIP’s of his career, and in 2009 won just 8 games despite making 30 starts. If he can match the first 9 years of his career in the next 9, he’s in, as that would put him at 274 wins with a 135 ERA+. However, with his recent decline and smallish stature, I highly doubt that.
  • Should he get in? Doubtful, but too far away to truly predict. Will he get in? <15%

• Lance Berkman. The Big Puma is working on a Hall of Fame career. Thru age 33 he has a .299/.412/.555 line with a 147 OPS+ (good for 44^th all time).  His lowest career OPS+ is 130.  At 313 career HR (to go with 1041 RBI), he has a shot at 500 career HR’s, he’d have to average 32 HR’s for the next seasons, not a slam dunk, but not impossible. Despite playing in a hitter’s park, he essentially has the same numbers on the road as at home.  Also, while he has settled in as a full time 1B, he does have over 900 games in the OF in his career.  He’ll be helped in the voting by the fact that the voters already like him, as evidenced by 4 Top 5 finishes in the MVP balloting.  He has also been very outspoken against steroids, which still doesn’t tell me he hasn’t used, but the writers will appreciate it.
  • Should he get in?  Yes, unless he falls of a cliff.  Will he get in? 65%

• Carlos Lee.  A very strong hitter who simply hasn’t been good enough to get serious merit.  He’s had a very solid 10 years in the majors, but is terrible defensively, and with his body type is due to regress.  He simply wasn’t great enough during his peak, nor will he stick around long enough to compile Hall of Fame caliber stats.
  • Should he get in?  No.  Will he get in? <3%

LA Dodgers

• Manny Ramirez.  No doubter
  • Should he get in?  Of course.  Will he get in?  90%, he will have to wait for steroid stigma to wear off.

Milwaukee Brewers

• None. Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder too far away.

New York Mets

• Johan Santana.  Got a semi-late start as he wasn’t a full time starter until age 25, so he may be hurt in the long run as far as counting stats go.  His dominance should get him in as long as he stays healthy and puts together a few more great seasons, along with a few more compiling seasons.  In 6 years since he became a starter he has a 2.86 ERA, 154 ERA+, 1.04 WHIP and 2 CY Young awards (could be 3).  He surely was dominant enough during that stretch that as long as he doesn’t suffer a major injury, he should put up the career numbers needed combined with his peak to put him in.
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in? 70%

• Carlos Beltran.  Beltran has been viewed as an underachiever in his career, but rather unfairly.  He simply has been a well above average offensive player while playing stellar defense in CF for 10 year in the bigs.  He has a career .283/.360/.496 119 OPS+ line, with 273 HR’s, 1086 RBI, and286 steals (only caught 38 times).  Yet despite some great numbers, people seem to have expected even more from Beltran.  After serious knee surgery, Beltran’s career is at a crossroads.  Should he come back to even 85% of what he was, I think he’ll get in, though it may take some time.  He is another player that will be appreciated by sabermatricians, but also has 8 100 RBI seasons, which the old curmudgeon’s will love.  If Beltran’s health doesn’t completely desert him (and playing for the Mets that’s a big if), he should end up with 400+ HR’s,  over 300 steals, and a reputation as a stellar defensive player, which should eventually get him in.
  • Should he get in?  If he comes back healthy, yes.  Will he get in?  50%

Philadelphia Phillies

• Roy Halladay.  148 Wins thru age 32 is lower than I’d expect, but he’s shown no signs of slowing down and the recent switch to the NL can only help.  Tack on another 80 wins or so and he’d be at 228 with ridiculous rate stats, 1 Cy Young and 5 top 5 finishes (so far).
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in?  80%

• Ryan Howard and Chase Utley both got off to late starts and haven’t hit my arbitrary 8 year mark yet, so they are still too far away to rate.  Jimmy Rollins simply hasn’t been good enough to consider

Pittsburgh Pirates

• None.  Not even Peter Gammons’ MVP pick Bobby Crosby, nor Jose Tabata, who some Yankees’ fans think is the next Roberto Clemente.

San Diego Padres

• None.  And what do you expect from a team put together by Kevin Towers? (/SBGL’d).  Adrian Gonzalez only has 4 years in the bigs, but get him out of Petco and I think he’d be on his way.

San Francisco Giants

• None.  Tim Lincecum is simply too far away and their veterans are just overpaid and terrible.

St. Louis

• Albert Pujols. Next question.
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in?  99%
• Matt Holliday. Will be hurt that his early monster seasons happened in Coors.  He’s 29 with 152 career HR’s, 2/3 of which came at home.  He would have to be better in St. Louis than he was in Colorado to have a good chance, and I just don’t see that happening.
  • Should he get in? No.  Will he get in?  <5%

Washington Natinals

• Ivan Rodriguez.  Unless he gets caught up in the steroid mess, he’s a lock.
  • Should he get in?  Yes.  Will he get in?  90% (I’d say 99%, but it’s a matter of when, not if he’s tied to steroids, either that or he has a tape worm that caused him to lose 50 lbs. of muscle once testing began.)

• Adam Dunn.  Dunn’s biggest supporters will also be his biggest detractors, if that makes any sense.  The sabermetric community loves Adam Dunn’s offense, and is viewed as a much better hitter in that context, than the old school side who think he sucks because of his low average.  The sabermetric community also cares about defense, and Dunn is as bad as it gets.  The sooner he gets to the AL, the better.  He has been a fantastic power hitter since he got to the majors, and at age 29 has a .249/.383/.520 line with 316 HR’s.  Though he likely won’t age well, a move to the AL could see him well into the mid 500’s and possibly into the 600’s for career HR’s.  Will his batting average keep him out if he has a .245/.380/.500 line with 550 HR’s?  10 years ago I’d say yes, but 10-15 years into the future I think he has a good shot, offensively.  The voters haven’t loved Dunn so far, only to top 30 MVP finishes (26^th and 28^th), and that won’t likely change while he’s playing.  While turnover in the BBWAA will help him gain support, those same supporters will also knock his defense.  I think he has a better chance than realized, simply because he could end up in the top 10 all time in HR’s, and as yet, untainted.
  • Should he get in?  If he keeps it up and moves to the AL, yes.  Will he get in? I’m bullish at 65%.

Who did I miss, who am I dead wrong on?  Stay tuned for the breakdown of AL teams coming tomorrow.