Would he fit on the Yankees?

A few organizations have taken fliers on troubled but gifted outfielder Elijah Dukes, betting that his raw power, solid bat and excellent discipline could overcome the myriad of legal issues and off-field and on-field controversies.

Natinals GM Mike Rizzo cut the cord on Wednesday, releasing Dukes, 25. This is a pretty big shocker considering that Dukes hasn’t had any legal trouble since 2007 and was coming into 2010 as the starting right fielder. Even more shocking: he had an option; he could have been sent down to the minors. Instead, Rizzo, having been unable to find a team willing to trade anything for Dukes, straight up released him. Essentially, the GM felt Dukes’ hitting approach wasn’t improving, he wasn’t well-liked in the clubhouse, and there were better in-house options. Basically, it wasn’t one thing that doomed him but a consortium of “minor” troubles. Well at least now he, Shawn Kemp and Antonio Cromartie can arrange play dates for their kids more easily. Silver lining, I suppose.

But seriously, let’s start by taking a look at some of the numbers. After being selected in the 3rd round of the 2002 draft by the Rays, Dukes mostly destroyed the minors in the Tampa Bay system. He then struggled mightily in his 2007 callup, and was shuttled off to Washington, where he rebounded to hit a line of .264/.386/.478/.864, an OPS+ of 127 in 81 games. His power numbers were excellent with .214 ISO and he posted a strong UZR in RF (11.2), albeit in a very small sample. He snagged a few bags, too. All in all, Dukes was one of the few bright spots in Washington that year with his 2.8 WAR.

But then 2009 came. Dukes started well, putting up a .279/.355/.500 in March and April. But it appears pitchers caught wind of his weaknesses shortly thereafter—he struggles mightily against the curveball. Like Pedro-Serrano-struggles out there. All told, in 2009, Dukes was only able to put 12% of curveballs in play and was near a .100 average against the pitch. Just…wow. In contrast, he was able to put around 20% of both fastballs and sliders in play. Problem is, the power dropped considerably (an ISO of .143), to where he was a singles hitter. His walk rate dropped (though still good) and while he connected for contact more, he swung too often and seemed to not hit anything hard. He’d end up with a line of .250/.337/.393.

The defense also abandoned him; he posted a UZR of -5.9 in RF in 65 games and was Damon-ian in CF in his short time there. Though he didn’t hit for more power in September and October of 2009, he was able to hit curveballs at 20% in September/October (SSS) and had an OBP of .398. So he did improve a bit later in the year.

This brings us to the Yankees (of course it does!). Currently, the Yanks have Brett Gardner, Randy Winn, Jamie Hoffmann and Marcus Thames out there. Not exactly Murderers Row. Dukes is easily the most talented of those players, but talent isn’t necessarily what’s at issue here. If we’re considering what situation would fit best for Dukes, it’s hard to think that any organization offers more in terms of stability, playing time potential, a veteran clubhouse, and the soothing music of winning. If Dukes were to sign, there’s a good chance he’d be the starting left fielder in 2010.

At worst, he’d probably create an excellent 5th outfielder as a guy that can play the field, hit for power and take walks. Jamie Hoffmann and Marcus Thames are very expendable. Jettisoning both of them to make room for Dukes makes tons of sense. Best case scenario, he puts up an OPS+ of 130 or higher and removes any need to pursue  a Werth or Crawford (who will be overpaid and both have concerns) in Free Agency. The reward/risk potential is very, very favorable to the team.

Now certainly there are clubhouse concerns and off-the-field considerations to be made. I can’t say that I’ve ever met Dukes and his history as a malcontent with legal troubles is concerning, if any organization can deal with things like this, it’s the Yankees. They’ve done so in the past. I bet a veteran clubhouse with Jeter, CC, Mo, Jorge, Teix, Pettitte, Swisher, Burnett, Granderson would be unable to sit him aside and make sure he’s apart of something. They’d probably be able to keep him in line but then again, considering the range of his temper and his temper, maybe not.

Still, there’s some hope for reform. He’s kept his nose clean for a few years. He can do it. And winning really can be a cure-all for the blues. Dukes must know the next team he signs with very well might be his last chance.  That, combined with a solid cadre of veterans, playing time opportunities, perpetual pursuit of championships and a long-term opportunity for a job should prove extremely tempting.

Of course, he could be absolutely certifiably insane and he and Antonio Cromartie get drunk, fuck shit up and have like 30 kids in a night while hanging out with Ian O’Connor and Joel Sherman before murdering one of them. That possibility exists. And actually, that doesn’t sound too horrible now that I think about it. Anyway… we also don’t know how great the spotlight will be on the troubled 25-year-old and if that pressure proves to be too much and he snaps, choking out Igawa. Maybe, and more importantly,  he really can’t hit a curveball. Who knows? But isn’t his immense potential, him keeping his nose clean and supposedly maturing, the Yankee clubhouse and the obvious positional need worth the chance?

If you have any confidence Dukes can rebound in 2010 (and you should) and isn’t 100% fucking insane, he’s a great fit for the Yankees. For the risk of losing Marcus Thames and Jamie Hoffmann, I think it’s worth signing him.

Photo Credit: David Drebin