Heathcott impressive thus far.

The excellent Frankie Pilliere of AOL Fanhouse has a nice write-up of some Yankee prospects, none more interesting than 2009 1st round pick Slade Heathcott. Pilliere calls Heathcott a “very complete player” who might be able to bat anywhere from 1-3 depending on how his development goes, along with plus base running and the makings of excellent defense out in CF. He’s been mashing fastballs and has been making some good adjustments on off-speed stuff. I don’t think there’s anyone in the system not named Jesus Montero that elicits so much excitement.

Pilliere also took a look at Andrew Brackman, saying that his velocity is done (mostly in the 90-92 range) but his once-erratic control has been much more refined. Brackman is now entering his second full season after TJ surgery, a period where the arm should be able to recover some velocity. Brackman ended the year on a high note pitching out of the bullpen, so hopefully the velocity returns to accompany his improved control. He could rise quickly if that’s the case.

Additionally, Pilliere saw signs of lightning-fast CF Abe Almonte’s bat coming around a bit, thinks Corban Joseph may hit for more power this year, and also noted that he still believes Montero has the ability to stick at catcher. It’s a solid article, I suggest you look it through.

Moving along prospect alley, MLBTR reports that Rafael DePaula should be making a decision soon. The Yanks and Mariners are slugging it out for his talent, which is expected to command a bonus from $1.5-2.0 million. If the Yankees don’t get DePaula, they may just “settle” for Carlos Matias, a hard-throwing 18-year-old, though it’s anyone’s guess as to when he’d get a visa. Or, more intriguingly, the Yankees could pass both talents in favor of the next crop of Latin American talent — 6’4 Mexican monster Luis Heredia allegedly has four plus pitches and great movement at AGE 15(!) and Dominican shortstops Jean Carlos Batista and Luis Marte. The Yankees are said to have a leg up on the competition for Heredia, as they have contacts in the Mexican league Heredia plays in.

As I’ve written previously, the Yankees certainly won’t get most of these guys. In fact, they may not get any of them, as they appear to have no interest in rocking the boat when it comes to escalating bonuses given to young kids in Latin America. Still, there’s a lot of talent that could greatly replenish a system that’s been hit hard by graduations and trades. July 2nd should be fun.

Photo credit: autographsforsale.com/

In a huge blow to sport fans and people that value some sense of clarity, dignity and interest in the course of watching professional baseball and football games, Joe “Fisticuffs” Buck signed a deal with Fox Sports to keep him on the air as Fox’s top sportscaster for another painful four years. He’ll again team [...]

In our latest guest spot, friend of M&A,”Big Juan” as he’s known at RAB, takes a look at the root causes of pitching injuries in baseball. It’s a really nice read; you should check it out. You can see the original post on his blog, The Yankee Way, here.

Today we heard the news that Alan Horne is out for the year with yet another arm injury. Over at River Avenue Blues, this sparked some discussion about just why Horne can’t stay on the mound. When his conditioning came into question, I realized just how much there is to say about this part of baseball.

Increasingly, we see pitchers go under the knife at some point during their career. In Horne’s case (this time at least), his rotator cuff is torn (about the worst news you can get as a pitcher). However, one of the most common injuries is a tear of the ulnar collateral ligament (UCL), leading players to need a replacement procedure you’ll surely know as “Tommy John Surgery”. Incredibly, we’ve reached the point that nearly one of nine pitchers in the MLB has undergone the procedure. This leads many of us to ask why — why with all of the medical technology and the advanced training techniques are pitchers getting hurt more and more?

Clearly, one of the main reasons more players are having the surgery is because of just how effective it has become. The success rate for the procedure is around 90% now, with 83% of patients able to resume competing at their previous level. In some cases, pitchers have been known to come back stronger, further emphasizing the faith in the surgery.

But where do the problems stem from? Players train smarter and harder these days, thanks to more research and attention directed at player performance. There are facilities dedicated to getting pitchers in the greatest shape of their lives and some of the stuff they do is mind boggling. Gone are the days of distance running and the heavy lifting. While these aspects of training still have a place, they are more supplemental. Instead, some of the greatest minds in fitness have ushered in a new era of training that relies on medicine balls, bands, kettlebells, resistance machines, chains and so on. Pitchers use these tools primarily in a quick and explosive fashion to help build the fast-twitch muscles that are so important to baseball. Click on this link to see a video of some the training being done at the IMG Baseball Academy (where our very own J.R. Murphy worked out this off season). It’s really cool stuff.

Is it possible that they have it all wrong and this new training is contributing to the problem? Sure — we thought the Earth was flat at one point too. But personally, having had the opportunity to experience the benefits of this type of training, I don’t think this is the case.

Rather, I believe this problem is rooted deep in baseball’s youth. E. Lyle Cain, MD, sees the same pattern:

“The increase in the number of UCL reconstructions being done now can be attributed to many things: improved diagnostic techniques, heightened awareness, increased chance of positive outcome with current surgical techniques, but most importantly, the overuse of young throwing arms,” said Dr. Cain. “In the past 10 years, year-round baseball leagues have proliferated. So the best young pitchers are throwing many more pitches and learning to throw more difficult pitches. It’s great that the surgery is successful, but prevention of the injury should be the goal. Kids should be urged to rest and be careful about saving their arms, rather than leading to long-term problems at a young age.”

Bingo. However, it is not entirely the overuse of young arms (though this is certainly a problem), but the misuse of young arms. In all the paranoia around innings limitations and pitch counts, the baseball community, especially Little League through high school, has lost sight of how to treat a young arm. Consequently, arm injuries are manifesting themselves earlier and more frequently.

Little League has become one of the worst things about baseball. Surely you’ve all turned on the World Series it holds each summer. What do you see? Countless 12 and 13-year-old kids throwing breaking ball after breaking ball. It’s awful what these kids are doing to their arms. At this age, no one should be throwing a curveball. Kids should be using a fastball and a change-up while learning how to locate. If Little League banned curveballs, I’d be willing to bet that over time there would be a decrease in arm injuries.

Another issue is how players throw and how often they throw. As Dr. Cain mentioned, year-round baseball has evolved into a way of life for many young players. If you’re a pitcher, the opportunity is there to throw as many innings as possible every year. But while game experience is certainly essential to development, there are times when kids would be better served just playing catch.

Going outside and throwing is a lost art. Whether it be because players are busy throwing max effort pitches 11 months out of the year or they’re playing The Show on XBox Live, kids just don’t do it enough.

The best way to build arm strength is to throw, a lot. It’s likely you’ve heard of players doing a long toss program to build their arm. It’s also likely that said program comes with restrictions — “x” number of throws until you reach 180 feet then work back in while throwing “on a line” (meaning there is no loop to the throw — instead it is thrown as a line drive even if this means bouncing it to your partner). While this isn’t harming anything, it does restrict the growth of the arm. Think about it, if you throw every day for a certain amount of throws at a certain distance, you’ve built a limit for your arm. This type of throwing does not stretch out the arm and allow it to reach its full capacity.

Rather, long toss should be a day to day thing that does not focus on a specific distance or number of throws. Maybe one day you make 50 throws and reach 200 feet. The next day is 75 and 150 and the third day is 30 and 250. Additionally, throws should be made at different planes and with different grips (this is a great way to teach a changeup). Some throws should be on a line but is also important to air it out. Let the arm dictate what you do and how far you push it. This way, the player will not only learn to be more in touch with their arm, they will acclimate it to making different types of throws. Here is a great article I read awhile back that preaches this method of throwing.

There’s no way of telling what caused Horne’s problems — perhaps it’s just bad fortune. However, I do believe in the things I talked about above. The focus on limits has ruined too many arms to count.

Workers carry the Mo Rivera Award.

So after Steve and James took their shots at looking into the magic crystal ball that is award predictions, I figured I would give it a go as well. I took a stab at a few of popular awards as well as one that we need to start spreading as soon as possible. And now for the predictions.

American League

MVP: Miguel Cabrera. Miggy is going to be 27 years old this season and has already established himself as a prolific hitter with 35 HR power. He came in fourth in MVP voting last year as he settled into his second season in Detroit. He may have lost some value by moving to 1B, but I fully expect that his peak starts to show itself this year.

Cy Young: Felix Hernandez. King Felix had excellent peripherals last year and managed to finish second in Cy Young voting. He had a 3.09 FIP last year and I expect him to be right around that again this year. With possibly the best defense in the AL behind him, I expect him to have a sub-3.00 ERA and reach the 200 K level.

ROY: Brian Matusz. He is left-handed? Check. Throws mid-90′s? Check. Obliterated the minors? Check. Matusz had 44.2 IP last year, just enough to keep him under the maximum to be a ROY candidate. I believe that his experience last year in the majors will only aid in his ability to show his talent level this year. The kid is going to be more than a thrower, he is a 4-pitch pitcher.

Mo Rivera Award: Joakim Soria. His H/9 took a jump last year, but his other peripherals were better than years before. I could easily see his WHIP returning back to around 1.00, maybe below, while maintaining a 10.0 K/9. You’ve never heard of this award before? Trust me, it exists.

National League

MVP: Albert Pujols. He puts up ridiculous numbers that make all the voters swoon. He has finished in the top three in MVP voting seven times during his nine year career. He has won three times. To say he is a good choice isn’t exactly rocket science. Even with Ryan Howard, Hanley Ramirez out there who can put up gaudy numbers, this is his award to lose.

Cy Young: Tim Lincecum. Even with only 15 wins last year the writers selected him as the best. Chris Carpenter had a freak year with 184 ERA+ and will almost certainly show some regression. Tim Lincecum is “The Freak” and will continue to show his ridiculous strikeout totals while logging the innings.

ROY: Jason Heyward. Did you expect anyone else here? He is the clear favorite and frankly I don’t think it is too particular close. Watch him hit 25 HR this year and the writers go gaga.(Rightfully so)

Mo Rivera Award: Jonathon Broxton. He can hit 100 mph on the radar gun. 13.50 K/9 in 76.0 IP last year. He tossed a 1.97 FIP and 2.61 ERA. His lower BABIP could indicate regression though. One major risk with him is that he breaks down if Joe throws him out there too often. Chances are though if he is healthy he will be the best reliever in the National League. Maybe even all of baseball.

Do you agree/disagree with these predictions? What are your predictions for the above awards? What is the meaning of life? Let me know your predictions so you can gloat when one of your wild card crazy predictions pans out.

Are people asking the right questions?

First off, let me set the record straight on something – I have faith in Brian Cashman. I trust that he analyzes situations thoroughly enough that his decisions will almost always be correct at the time they are made, whether or not fate rewards them with confirmation. I can’t say that I have full faith in every member of the Yankees’ decision-making corps, but I do feel that they have earned some benefit at the doubt, especially with Cashman at the helm.

Thus, I do believe (and I detailed some reasons why in my last post) that they had many legitimate reasons for making Joba a reliever this year. Some we can see, some we just have to hope are there. But I believe Cashman has demonstrated over the past couple years that he has the acuity not to make decisions without thorough analysis. So this is not a reprehension of the Joba decision of 2010. This is for the fans who can’t understand why anybody would want to put somebody who has shown an ability to be an elite reliever in the rotation.

As all of us know, Joba’s 2007 debut was the stuff of legend. 0.38 ERA. Consistently between 98 and 100mph with the fastball. One of the nastier sliders any of us had ever seen. Some were content to just sit back and watch, but others, like myself, wanted to know more about the fellow (and others still already did). A quick read-up on the interwebs could have told any of us that this was just the beginning. Beyond the legendary FB/SL combo, Joba had a solid (and improving) curveball, and was working on a changeup that was still below average, but also improving. What’s more, the guy, in one year, had dominated two levels of the minors – Class A advanced and Class AA – as a starter before transitioning to the bullpen at AAA.

Suffice it to say, we were excited. Many of us had been following Phil Hughes for the last couple of years, and while he generated a lot of excitement, he was not quite on this level. Save for a nice-looking curve, his stuff looked relatively average, he’d had some injury troubles, and hadn’t really excelled at the Major League level at that point. Joba, on the other hand, had utterly dominated the Majors at age 21, and his stuff provided us with tangible evidence of future dominance. Sure, most of us recognized that he wasn’t going to be sitting at 99 mph as a starter, and that he’d surely take some lumps along the way, but it was still cool to revel in the thought of a starter who seemed to have no ceiling whatsoever.

In 2008, in a further attempt to control his innings (one which backfired and ended up further delaying his development), the Yankees started the season Joba out of the bullpen, with the plan at the outset for him to make the transition into the rotation some time in June. Naturally, many MSM analysts and “experts” disagreed with the decision, scoffed at (or ignored entirely) the notion of “innings limits”, and generally disregarded anything that wasn’t what they were used to seeing (which, in the case of the Yankees, was pretty much nothing other than free agents). But most of the more obsessed, basement-dwelling fans among us were too excited to finally (hint: sarcasm) see the 2006 draftee pitch as a starter at the major league level to worry much about the Yankees methods of deploying him as such, provided that he got a reasonable number of starts that year.

Finally, after two “warmup” starts of 2.1 and 4.1 innings, respectively, Joba the Major League Starter was unleashed on the baseball world, pitching 6 innings of one-run, two strikeout ball in Houston on June 13. For the next month and a half, Joba rewarded those of us who felt all along that his value was in the rotation and not the bullpen, pumping out 98 mph fastballs and biting sliders, freezing hitters with a better-than-average curveball, and striking out more than a batter per inning while posting a 2.62 ERA as a starter. It was bliss.

Alas, our bliss was short-lived. On August 4th, disaster struck in the form of a too-low throw down to second from recently acquired Pudge Rodriguez. Joba, all 230+ pounds of him, dove out of the way, landing and rolling over his throwing shoulder. Two pitches later, he was out of the game, and onto the DL. He threw several times out of the bullpen in September, but his stuff was noticeably diminished. Rather than the 98+mph fastball that he had had out of the bullpen earlier in his career, or the 95+ he had had as a starter even, he was 91-93, and his slider had less bite. Still, most of us didn’t worry much, as the off season was approaching and by all accounts he was fine physically. Surely, the velocity would come back, and so would the Joba dominance.

It didn’t. Joba’s 2009 has been well-documented (or, at least, very documented – the extent to which that documentation was good is certainly debatable). He was inconsistent all year, never topped 95mph on the fastball, and was rarely above 91-92, and it showed in his performance. Used to being able to strike hitters out seemingly at will, Joba now had to try to “figure out how to get hitters out”, as the guys at ESPN will tell you is a key to success as a pitcher (ed. note: uhh…yeah…). Naturally, like most young starters, Joba struggled with this all year, although the results, for the most part, didn’t show it much – his 3.78 ERA after 110 innings (his previous high) was second best on the team amongst starters.

From here, the Yankees decided that, due to a lack of depth in the rotation, they needed Joba to remain a starter for the postseason, so they decided to try to ration his innings, keeping him stretched out but not overworking him. While it worked in two senses – Joba stayed healthy and the Yanks still managed to win the World Series, it didn’t work as far as Joba’s individual results were concerned. His ERA over the last two months was over 7.00, and many questioned his ability to hold up as a starter. Of course, looking now at the context of that situation – two horrid months of pitching in a confusing environment while simultaneously entrenched in the biggest workload increase of his career – it seems silly to come to such extreme conclusions based on such a small and obviously exceptional data set. But this is New York. People will make conclusions about a pitcher based on a single at-bat. Two months might as well be a career.

So now that we’re clear on Joba’s story thus far, we can get into the actual meat of the issue. (Hurray for 1125 word introductions!). In 2009, Joba put up a 1.5 WAR. This would not quite be elite for a reliever, but for comparison’s sake, David Robertson was worth 0.7 WAR in 2009. Mariano Rivera was worth 2.0. Phil Hughes, with 7 starts in ’09 to boost up his innings totals, still only managed 2.2 WAR. Suffice it to say, Joba’s not likely to be significantly more valuable as a reliever than he was last year. At best, he could probably ring up 2.5 WAR, which was the high for relievers last year (Jonathan Broxton). That would make him worth roughly as much as Brad Penny and Kevin Millwood. So, naturally, the question, as it pertains to whether or not Joba should be in the bullpen, ought to be whether or not we or the Yankees (really just the Yankees) think he can consistently be as good as or better than Brad Penny or Kevin Millwood as a starter. If he can do that, then there’s really no reason to hold him back from the rotation (admittedly, this year there are a few reasons, since the Yanks do have 5 other starters each of whom they feel can outperform Joba this year, but this year is an exceptional circumstance).

The problem is, this doesn’t seem to be the question anybody is asking. People wonder if he can be Josh Beckett or Roger Clemens. Which is fair – when he came up he flashed the potential to reach those heights as a starter, but not relevant to the starter-reliever discussion. Many people, Brian Cashman included (per his interview with Michael Kay a few days ago), don’t think we’re likely to see Joba pitch at those same levels again, bullpen or rotation. A year and a half has gone by since his injury, and his stuff hasn’t really even come close to what it was before it. It’s not unreasonable to think that Joba’s ceiling as a starter has gone down considerably since that fateful day in Texas. It IS unreasonable, though, to think that this necessarily has any bearing on whether or not Joba should be a starter or not.

Joba’s career ERA as a starter is 4.18. This as a 23 and 24 year old pitching in one of the best offensive divisions in the history of baseball, coming off a grand total of 88 minor league innings. In other words, two thirds of his “development” innings (Cashman says that he has now fully completed his development program) have come at the major league level, and his ERA during that span is right on par with Andy Pettitte’s. But even this level, which is probably below the expectation many Yankees fans had of Joba, is well above what Joba would need to do as a starter to be more valuable than he could be as a reliever. Basically, Joba needs to be better than he was last year, but not much. 170 or more innings of an ERA of 4.50 or better should be more than enough to solidify his position as a starter, because it would take a totally unsustainable performance out of the bullpen to be worth that much.

THAT is the point. Maybe Joba won’t reach his once-upon-a-time ceiling of unstoppable ace that we all want him to. Maybe he won’t ever even be more than a slightly-above-average starter. And to be a long-term part of the Yankees rotation he may need to be more than that. But to necessitate being a reliever, he’d need to be quite a bit less.

They pray for Scurvy.

To give a sense of perspective on how long the Pirates have been atrocious, since their last winning season, 1992, every single woman born that year in Mississippi has had at least two babies. That didn’t help much, did it? Whatever. Anyway,  if you believe what arguably the worst owners in sports are saying (the Nutting family), the Pirates might actually compete fairly soon. Unlike past years, where the best thing that could happen to the franchise was Derek Bell living in International Waters to avoid paying taxes, they’ll be able to show off some talented young players—Pedro Alvarez, the 2nd overall pick in the 2008 draft, Jose Tabata (may actually be 32-years-old and related to Jose Contreras), Andrew McCutchen (a legit top-5 CF in the making), and still-young Lastings Millege (who had a solid average for them last year in 58 games, though struggled overall).

Outfield: Shockingly, the Pirates outfield might actually be pretty good. Like, legitimately solid. Any conversation of the Pirates outfield starts and ends with Andrew McCutchen, who in his first season contributed with speed (22 steals) and solid hitting (.286/.365/.471 with a wRC+ of 128). UZR says he was -0.7 in 107 games in CF last year, which is far too small a sample by which to judge. Scouting reports peg him as a top defender, so I’ll defer to that until the numbers say otherwise. All projections next year have his wRC+ as anywhere between 114-127. Or, if you like wOBA, he should be around the .350s.

Next up is the difficult-but-talented Lastings Millege. Brought back in the trade that saw Nyjer Morgan succeed in Washington, Millege had an up-and-down 2009. His walks dropped from around 6% (already not great) to 4% and his strikeout percentage continued to hover at around 20%. Worse, the plus-power potential he’s displayed at various points in his career all but vanished in 2009. His ISO was .094 last season. That’s like Rey Ordonez-power.

All told, he ended 2009 with an OBP of .323 and an OPS of .696. That’s not getting the job done. He’ll need to stop swinging at pitches outside the zone (31% to the league average of 25%) to be more successful. He’s not Robinson Cano — he can’t hit everything. Good news is his UZR in 2009 was 5.4, which helped make up for his weak power and on-base woes in 2009. He’ll be turning 25 around opening day, so there’s still hope he can develop into the 5-tool player the Mets envisioned him being when they drafted him in 2003.

The final man in Pittsburgh’s outfield was former minor league purgatory player Garrett Jones, who at 28 finally broke out and made the big club. He responded by hitting .292/.372/.567 in 82 games with an ISO of .274. The numbers look gaudy, but require closer inspection. While Jones killed righties with a .333/.426/.620 (!), his numbers against lefties were .208/.243/.455, a stark contrast. He’s like the best-case-scenario 2007 Juan Miranda.

But on a serious note, Jones also had a much higher walk rate (11%) than he’d ever had in the minors and better power. This was a strange season, unquestionably. Pitch type values reveal Jones wasn’t able to hit the fastball (-14.6) and didn’t excel against any other pitch last year. We’d need to see a larger sample to make some larger conclusion, but if that, along with his numeric outliers and Howard-ian platoon splits are telling, he’ll be a major regression candidate. Good news is that’s perfect for former Yankee prospect Jose Tabata, brought here when Nady and Marte joined the Bombers.

Tabata struggled with attitude, immaturity and power numbers in the Yankees system, but seems to have turned the corner a bit. When I say that I mean he’s now reportedly a 29-year-old man from Wisconsin with a 43-year-old wife that kidnapped a baby at a strip mall in Florida. So he’s got that going for him. While his bat has rebounded, he still doesn’t have any power. With just good speed, solid glove and good-not-great on-base skills with zip for power, he’s not an ideal corner outfielder. Especially if he really is in his mid-20s and not 22.

Brandon Moss and Ryan Church step in as 4th and 5th outfielders. Yawn.

Infield: All things considered, the individual players on their own merit are not all that bad (except for Cedeno, who you’ll quickly see ruins my analogy), but when looked at as a unit, they’re a sad bunch. It’s like the opposite of Captain Planet. Andy LaRoach and Jeff Clement aren’t bad players — they’ll give you double digit home runs and average defense — but when the rest of the team are weak power hitters, you need those traditional power positions to be strong. LaRoach can’t get on base (.330 OBP was a good number thus far in his professional career), has fairly weak power for his position (.143 ISO), and isn’t a great contact hitter either, though his BABip have been absurdly low in the big leagues (.257). There may be some hope for improvement, but he might just be what he is—a good defender without the bat to contribute at 3B.

Jeff Clement, brought here in the deal that sent Jack Wilson and Ian Snell to Seattle, had spent much of his time as a catcher, but is now expected to be the first baseman. At C, you could excuse poor defense because his bat was solid for the position. At 1B, that’s not the case. His power might be average (15-20 HRs) with good on-base skills and passable defense, but having three of four power positions at the corners be manned by guys unlikely to hit 20 home runs will create a problem. Hell, even Jones might not stick around if he can’t keep up those strange numbers.

In the middle infield, the Pirates brought along former Ray Iwamura, who should be expected to hit around .280/.350/.390 with average-to-good defense. For $4.8 million, that’s a steal, even though his power is very weak. His doubles partner will be Ronny Cedeno. Cedeno sucks. Straight up. If he were in Captain Planet, he’d be the guy that ate his own clothes, crapped everywhere and talked about the benefits of fertilizer. You’ll be lucky if ‘Ol Ronny gets on base 30% of the time. You’ll be lucky if his UZR isn’t -10 or worse. No need for fear—former RoY Bobby Crosby will be there to back him up. Peter Gammons has already singled him out as a likely MVP candidate. Fucking shoot me now.

There’s some good news to all of this—Ryan Doumit, when healthy, can really hit the ball. Doumit was solid in 2008, hitting .318/.357/.501. In 2009, he fractured his wrist and really struggled afterward, though he rebounded in September to hit .346/.424/.481. If he can stay on the field, he’s a top-5 offensive catcher, something a weak-hitting team like the Pirates could really use.

Also, hotshot prospect Pedro Alvarez is almost ready. He might not get there ’til the AS break, but he can really mash. If you’re a Pirates fan, you’ll want to keep an eye on him. Other than McCutchen, no one profiles to be a superstar in the organization. While his addition alone won’t make them a contender, don’t be surprised if Alvarez comes up in July and hits .275/.370/.520 with average defense. If not, Derek Bell is probably looking for a job.

Maybe Ross Ohlendorf can become a player/manager/GM?

Starting Pitching: Surprisingly, the Pirates staff really isn’t that bad. Is it good? No. But it could be a lot worse. At the top of the rotation is Paul Malholm, a guy best suited as a mid-rotation starter. He pitches to contact, has low K totals but will keep you in ballgames and eat innings. Definitely not an ace but a solid ground ball pitcher masquerading as a pseudo ace.

Their #2 will likely be Zach Duke, who once upon a time was considered one of the top up-and-coming pitchers in all of baseball. Since then, however, he’s been an all-contact, no-k guy. The primary reason? Though he has an advanced changeup and curveball, his fastball is terrible. It has no movement and the velocity is unimpressive, to say the least. That’s not what the Pirates need, though you could do worse with a ground ball pitcher with excellent control. They need guys that can strike people out and limit runs. Still, he’ll probably have an FIP of anywhere between 4.20-4.70, probably somewhere in the middle. Their team isn’t as good as they were defensively last year. Jones and Millege aren’t as strong as their predecessors in the corners and Cedeno is a net-loss, Iwamura isn’t as good as Freddy Sanchez, either. It’ll be tough for Duke to outperform his ERA this year.

Behind Duke in the 3rd slot is former Yankee farmhand, big-brained Ross Ohlendorf. He has strikeout potential-stuff, but he needs to work on a few things. His FIP was almost a run higher than his ERA, so that’s unsustainable. He also gave up way too many home runs, with a rate of 1.27. Ouch. He has a good fastball with good movement and a nice complimentary slider that acts as more of a slurve. His changeup has also improved, ranking as an above-average pitch in pitch type values. If his stuff can translate into more strikeouts, expect Ohlendorf to be around his FIP. If not, expect an ERA in the high fours , low fives next year.

Jumping into the 4th and 5th spots are perennial underachievers Charlie Morton and Dan McCutchen (unrelated to Andrew). Morton, despite having really good stuff, always seems to put up poor numbers. His fastball is anywhere from 93-96 with excellent movement, he has a tight slider with great movement, a plus curveball and a slightly-below average change. His FIP last year was 4.15, a solid number for him. He’ll need to up the Ks and limit the walks (a 1.55 k/bb last year) but if anyone can actually be a legitimate top-end starter on this team, it’s Morton. He’s at the point where it’s put-up or shut-up.

Closing out the rotation is ho-hum Dan McCutchen. His stuff is average, he gives up way too many fly balls and he lacks the ability to get outs when he needs. Frankly, he’s lucky he has a ML contract. Expect him to throw an ERA in the mid-to-high fives and find himself back in the minors or in the bullpen. Prospect Brad Lincoln might get the call sometime in 2010. He won’t be expected to save the organization, but he can miss some bats and step in for a spotty rotation. He’ll need to keep the ball down to have any success, though.

Bullpen: Why a team that isn’t competing in 2010 would spend $6 million on Octavio Dotel is beyond me. Maybe it’s for morale purposes. You don’t want your young kids actually getting a good game every now and then just to watch Matt Capps get clobbered and ruin any semblance of progress. Dotel’s a decent reliever and certain to be an improvement over Matt Capps. He still has huge K numbers (well over 10/9), high walks (over 5/9) and limits hits. Expect the home runs to rise this year, as last year’s HR/FB was 9.0%, roughly 2% or more off what it usually is. Still, Dotel has some good value.

Working as his primary set-up man is Brendan Donnelly, who quietly had a pretty good season for the Marlins last year. He’s an age/injury concern but Donnelly still possesses good stuff. Don’t expect him to be as good in 2010 (that HR-rate is not going to  happen again), but he’s a solid addition if healthy. Rounding out the re-tooled bullpen are D.J. Carrasco, whose fastball and curve really improved last year, the unimpressive Javier Lopez, Jeff Karstens, Joel Hanrahorrible (of Nats fame) and Evan Meek. Should be much better than last year, but by no means a top bullpen.

Outlook: Again, don’t expect much in 2010. Maybe they’ll get 70 wins. But quietly, GM Neal Huntington has done a good job of putting an extreme makeover on the Pirates. The talent in the upper-minors, outside of Tabata and Alvarez, is low. That’s because Huntington’s predecessor Dave Littlefield was accustomed to choosing terrible baseball players with almost incredible accuracy. Most consistent (lack of) success rate in all of drafting. But the Pirates have spent more than any other team on the draft since Huntington took over. They finally have guys that may be viable MLB starters in McCutchen, Doumit, Tabata, Alvarez, Alderson, Tony Sanchez, Brad Lincoln, Gordys Hernandez. They still have a long way to go, and even if they get there, there’s no guarantee Bob Nutting will allow the payroll to be enough to retain his young players while adding quality veterans, but for once you can argue the Pirates have a future. Wear condoms, Mississippi.

Photo Credits: Gene J. Puskar, AP; J. Scott Applewhite, AP

Rick Porcello's fan base grew by 62.2 million people with this takedown.

The Tigers lost a one game playoff for the Central division crown this year, and should again be in the thick of things this year.  They have legitimate Cy Young and MVP candidates in Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera and picked up Johnny Damon and Austin Jackson, formerly of the Yankees, while losing Curtis Granderson and Placido Polanco.

Outfield: Everyone knows the Johnny Damon benefitted greatly from Yankee Stadium, but the Tigers signed him anyway.  Unless Damon’s 2009 defense was just a one year blip, he will not bring much to the table for Detroit.  On the road last year he hit .284/.349/.446.  As a shoddy defensive left fielder, that kind of a line just won’t get it done for what Damon cost.  In CF the Tigers are running with rookie Austin Jackson.  Jackson should provide solid defense in CF and speed on the base paths, but not much pop with the bat.  In AAA last year he had a .759 OPS, it’s likely he won’t match that in his 1^st year in the bigs, so while he may develop down the road, don’t expect a strong year from A-Jax in 2010.  In RF, the Tigers still have Magglio Ordonez.  Ordonez was a monster in 2007, decent in 2008, and about average in 2009.  At 36 years old, it’d be foolish to expect him to put up numbers like he did when younger, and the pop in his bat appears gone, as he slugged just .428 last year, his worst performance since his rookie season.  Overall, the Tigers OF contains two past their prime stars, and one guy not quite ready for the show.

Infield: Brandon Inge returns at 3B, providing great defense and some pop with the bat, but not much else.  He hits for a low average, and doesn’t walk all that much.  All of his value comes from the glove, and at 33 don’t expect him to improve defensively.  If the glove remains strong, he’s helpful, but if he slips defensively he becomes useless.  The defensive theme continues at SS with Adam Everett.  Everett’s bat makes Inge look like Barry Bonds. Everett’s career high OPS+ is 80 and he has been at 61 the past 4 years.  Even with the great defense, he essentially plays at replacement player level.  Replacing Polanco at 2B will be rookie Scott Sizemore.  Polanco was still great with the glove, but at 34 and with a league average at best bet, the Tigers made the right decision to let him go (and the Phillies were stupid to sign him to play 3B).  Sizemore should provide solid defense and a strong bat at 2B, coming off a minor league season in which he hit .308/.389/.500 with 17 HR’s and 21 steals split between AA and AAA.  At 1B is everyone’s favorite drunken slugged Miguel Cabrera.  If alcohol truly held Cabrera back in the past, and if he’s truly quit drinking, look out.  Cabrera will turn just 27 in April yet already has over 200 career HR’s and a .311/.383/.542 line.  He’s basically Manny Ramirez.  He can flat out mash.

Catcher: At catcher is Gerald Laird, he of the famous assaulting Laird family.  Laird is a great defensive catcher, and he better be, because the bat sucks.  In his two seasons catching over 100 games, his OPS+ is 64.  If he played for the Red Sox we would hear about how fantastic a game caller he is, as evidenced by Justin Verlander’s greatness.  How those two go together I can’t figure out, ask your favorite Red Sox fan, they can explain.

DH: DH’ing for the Tigers will be Carlos Guillen.  Once a very valuable player with a plus bat at SS, Guillen simply does not hit enough to be a good DH.  He’ll be 34 this year, and coming off a .242/.339/.419 96 OPS+ season.  Someone that only hits for a living needs to hit a hell of a lot better than that.  Don’t expect a repeat of Guillen’s peak years; he’ll be a league average hitter at DH, not good for the Tigers.

Starting Rotation: As noted above, the Tigers have several below average hitters in their lineup, and will rely on their starting pitching.  Justin Verlander is a bonafide ace and coming off his best season.  Rick Porcello was great as a 20 year old, but there has to be some concern with his 4.7 K/9 rate.  He has strikeout stuff, but there has been talk that he, in trying to conserve pitches, was trying to get outs earlier in the count.  This was also the claim in his one year in the minors.  If true, expect a similar season.  His BABIP is likely to rise from .279, but an increased strikeout total can help offset that.  Pitching in The good news for Tigers fans and Porcello is that he pitched about as well on the road as he did at home in spacious Comerica Park.  Porcello, if he can increase the strikeouts, could be in the running for Cy Young votes down the road.  Not many teams can claim a 3^rd starter with the stuff of Max Scherzer.  His delivery is unorthodox, and there are injury concerns, but his stuff is unquestioned.  Even moving over to the AL, if he throws 180 innings, expect good results.  Competing for the 4^th and 5^th spots are a ton of question marks.  Jeremy Bonderman’s career has been derailed by injuries; Dontrelle Willis’ has been derailed by injuries, ineffectiveness, and anxiety issues.  Nate Robertson and Eddie Bonine just aren’t any good.  If Scherzer is healthy the Tigers have a chance with a strong top 3, but their 4^th and 5^th starters shouldn’t be expected to deliver much.

Relief Pitching: Fernando Rodney is out as closer, replaced by Jose Valverde.  Any time you bring an NL relief pitcher to the AL, there is a question mark.  Valverde’s stuff should play well in the AL, and it’s not like Rodney was exactly lights out with a 4.40 ERA and 1.47 WHIP.  A fully healthy Joel Zumaya would go a long way to stabilizing the Tigers pen, but that’s far from a sure thing.  Daniel Schlereth struggled as a rookie, but has a 1^st round pedigree and good stuff; he could end up becoming one of the anchors of the pen.  Phil Coke had his moments with the Yankees last year, and if nothing else he improves the OF defense immensely when he’s in the game by constantly pointing out fly balls.

Final Outlook: The Tigers have a chance to contend, but have a ton of question marks in the rotation after Verlander and Porcello.  If Scherzer gives them 30 starts, and someone can step up to provide a decent 4^th starter (asking for a decent 5^th starter is probably too much), the Tigers should battle the Twins and White Sox all year long.  If Scherzer has injury problems, and Porcello’s lack of strikeouts hurt him, they will be in trouble, as they don’t have the bats to carry them.

Luckily this picture of Ozzie doing his David Carradine impression is from the waist up.

The highlight of the 2010 White Sox season is undoubtedly going to be Ozzie Guillen’s twitter account.  The Sox should be in the thick of things in the AL Central this year, as there is no dominant team.  To make the playoffs in the Central, you have to win the division though, as the odds of the Wild Card not coming out of the East are slim.  The White Sox will need bounce back years all over the diamond (Rios, Quentin, Ramirez, etc.) and will need Jake Peavy to prove he is more than just an NL and Petco pitcher.

Outfield: The Sox outfield is full of question marks.  Juan Pierre, brought over in the offseason should provide plus defense in LF, but the bat is always a question.  If he repeats his solid 2009 (.308/.365/.392), Pierre can bring a lot to the table for the Sox.  If he reverts back to his career OPS+ of 85, Pierre won’t be a big help for the Sox.  Is this the year CF Alex Rios breaks out?  Unlikely.  While he has tools across the board, Rios has never taken the next step.  From 2006-2008 he OPS+’d 118 while providing great defense in RF.  He was only in RF due to The Albatross known as Vernon Wells, so 2010 will the be first year Rios is the Opening Day centerfielder.  How will he respond?  The answer to this question could go a long way to determining how the Sox far in 2010.  In RF, the Sox will also need a bounce back form Carlos Quentin.  While he may not repeat his 2008 breakout (148 OPS+ and legit MVP candidate before breaking his hand), he needs to improve on his 2009 showing of a 99 OPS+ in only 99 games.  Still only 27, Quentin very likely could see 30/100 season with a 120-130 OPS+.

Infield: New at 3B for the Sox will be jack of all trades, master of none Mark Teahen. UZR does not like Teahen at 3^rd, and he doesn’t bring much to the table at bat.  He is an upgrade over the 2009 Sox, as he is essentially replacing Chris Getz and Jayson Nix, while incumbent 3B Gordon Beckham moves over to 2B.  Beckham is a star in the making.  As a 22 year old rookie he more than held his own with a 107 OPS+ and 14 HR’s in 103 games.  Expect a solid season from Beckham this year, and stardom down the road.  At SS is Alexi Ramirez, who has yet to see pitch he didn’t think he could hit.  In 164 games at SS, Ramirez has a 2.3 UZR, so it appears he can handle the position well, but it’s still too small of a sample size to say for sure.  Offensively Ramirez was worse in his 2^nd season, but did show signs of improvement.  His OBP jumped from .317 to .333 and his BB rate jumped from 3.5% to 8.1%.  Where he regressed significantly is in his power numbers.  His slugging percentage dropped almost 100 points to .389. If he can get his slugging percentage back to the mid 400’s, while continuing to improve his pitch selection, Ramirez could be in line for a very good year.  The day of Paul Konerko being a great hitter appear to be over, as he has just a 112 OPS+ the past 3 years while playing poor defense at 1B.  Unless he turns back the clock, Konerko doesn’t bring much to the table any longer.

Catcher: Everyone’s favorite dick is back at catcher. AJ Pierzynski is as consistent as it comes behind the plate.  He’ll be good for an OPS+ of about 90, and PISD OFF OPP of about 165.  He’s one of those guys you love if they are on your team, you hate if they aren’t.

DH: At DH, and presumably backup OF for all 3 spots is Andruw Jones.  Since it is spring, we’re hearing about what great shape Jones is in.  Of course he is.  I actually think this was a good pickup, while he’s been around forever he’ll be just 33 this year and did OPS+100 last year.  That won’t get it done as a DH, but if he’s truly recommitted to baseball, this could prove to be a shrewd signing.  Call me gullible, but I’m buying into the new Andruw Jones, so much so, that I still believe he has a good chance to make the Hall of Fame when he’s done.  More on that in a future post, but feel free to tear me to shreds for that one.

Starting Rotation: Peavy is the biggest question mark in the rotation.  Leaving the NL and spacious Petco Field, is Peavy still an ace, or just a nice part of a solid rotation?  If he’s an ace, the Sox could cruise to the division title with solid pitchers filling out the 2-4 spots in Mark Buehrle, John Danks and Gavin Floyd.  As of now it appears Freddy Garcia will fill the 5^th spot, and if healthy he could put up a good season for his buddy Guillen.  Health of course is a huge issue for Garcia.  After 6 straight 200+ innings seasons, Garcia has thrown just 129 innings the past 3 years.  Is he toast, or does all of the time off the past 3 years help him find the fountain of youth?  I don’t think Garcia will make or break this team, but getting 25 starts out of him at the backend of the rotation would go a long way for them.

Relief Pitching: The White Sox will field a strong bullpen this year, and if Bobby Jenks can pitch well enough to keep the closers role, things will line up very nicely behind him with Matt Thornton, Scott Linebrink and JJ Putz.  Putz is the key here, if healthy (and getting away from the Mets can only help), the Sox will be able to get 6 strong innings from their starters and have a good chance of winning a lot of games.  A solid and deep rotation, followed by a deep bullpen will keep the Sox in contention all year.

Final Outlook: If everything goes right, I could see the Sox running away with the Central.  There are a ton of question marks though, and I just can’t see them all going the Sox’ way.  I can see them finishing anywhere from 1^st to 3^rd and anywhere from 82-95 wins.